VMI

We rate VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC (VMI) as a Hold with a composite score of 60.1/100 at a current price of $463.46. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (67th percentile) and stability (66th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (28th percentile) and value (60th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (54/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC holds an above-average position (#19 of 50) within the Construction sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 60.1/100 places it at rank #680 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $7.6B in market capitalization, VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC is a mid-cap player in the Construction space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 1% and favorable momentum (62th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 30% (+6.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 10% (+3.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 6.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 22%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $463.46, VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 60/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 34.8x (a 82% premium to the sector median of 19.1x), EV/EBITDA of 21.9x (at a premium), P/B of 5.8x, P/S of 2.3x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (107% debt-to-equity). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (107% debt-to-equity). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 66th percentile and quality factor at the 67th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (66th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include suboptimal returns on capital. Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 60.1/100 (rank #680 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (54/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 57/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.