AA

We rate Alcoa Corp (AA) as a Hold with a composite score of 55.2/100 at a current price of $61.57. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (83th percentile) and stability (54th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (33th percentile) and investment (35th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (35/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Alcoa Corp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 55.2/100 places it at rank #1243 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $5.9B in market capitalization, Alcoa Corp is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 3% and favorable momentum (83th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 10% (-32.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 9% (+8.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 8.0%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 80%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $61.57, Alcoa Corp is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 49/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 15.4x (a 31% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 13.3x (near the sector median), P/B of 2.5x, P/S of 1.3x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Alcoa Corp. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.70), significant leverage (150% debt-to-equity), weak quality scores (33th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.70); significant leverage (150% debt-to-equity); weak quality scores (33th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 54th percentile and quality factor at the 33th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate Alcoa Corp's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include suboptimal returns on capital. Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Alcoa Corp significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Alcoa Corp receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 55.2/100 (rank #1243 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (35/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 51/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Alcoa Corp. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.