KOP

We rate Koppers Holdings Inc. (KOP) as a Hold with a composite score of 54.2/100 at a current price of $34.51. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (84th percentile) and stability (68th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (34th percentile) and momentum (48th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (28/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Koppers Holdings Inc. holds a lower-quartile position (#45 of 50) within the Construction sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 54.2/100 places it at rank #1363 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $552M in market capitalization, Koppers Holdings Inc. is a small-cap player in the Construction space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -14% combined with momentum at the 48th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 23% (-0.8pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 8% (+1.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 2.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 9%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $34.51, Koppers Holdings Inc. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 84/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 15.2x (a 20% discount to the sector median of 19.1x), EV/EBITDA of 6.8x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.3x, P/S of 0.3x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Koppers Holdings Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (171% debt-to-equity) and the combination of leverage (171% D/E) and thin margins (2.1% net) amplifies downside risk. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (171% debt-to-equity); the combination of leverage (171% D/E) and thin margins (2.1% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 68th percentile and quality factor at the 50th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (68th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Koppers Holdings Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (171% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Koppers Holdings Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Koppers Holdings Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 54.2/100 (rank #1363 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (28/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 57/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Koppers Holdings Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.