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Relative valuation derived from Materials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 36.6GRADE D
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
11.5%
Sector: 3.3%
Dividend Analysis audit
No Dividend
This company does not currently pay a dividend.
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) receives a "Buy" rating with a composite score of 56.6/100, ranked #47 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 37/100, Value 70/100, Momentum 64/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does Nutrien Ltd. Do?
Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. It offers potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate products; and financial solutions. The company also distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products through approximately 2,000 retail locations in the United States, Canada, South America, and Australia. In addition, it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America, and Australia. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada. Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Materials sector, specifically within the Chemicals industry. The company is led by CEO Kenneth A. Seitz and employs approximately 24,700 people. With a market capitalization of $35.9B, NTR is one of the prominent companies in the Materials sector.
As of April 2026, Nutrien Ltd. receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 56.6/100 and 4 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.NTR ranks #47 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Materials sector, Nutrien Ltd. ranks #2 of 284 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Materials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
NTR Stock Price and 52-Week Range
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) currently trades at $74.43. The stock gained $1.65 (2.3%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for NTR is $85.36, which means the stock is currently trading -12.8% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $45.78, putting the stock 62.6% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 1.8M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is NTR Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) carries a value factor score of 70/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 54.23x, compared to the Materials sector average of 26.50x — a premium of 105%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.48x, versus the sector average of 2.83x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.35x, compared to 0.74x for the average Materials stock. On an enterprise value basis, NTR trades at 3.44x EV/EBITDA, versus 6.01x for the sector.
Based on these multiples, Nutrien Ltd. appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
Nutrien Ltd. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) earns a quality factor score of 37/100, signaling below-average profitability metrics relative to the broader market. The return on equity (ROE) is 11.5%, compared to the Materials sector average of 3.3%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 5.4% versus the sector average of 0.6%.
On a margin basis, Nutrien Ltd. reports gross margins of 29.0%, compared to 29.8% for the sector. The operating margin is 7.1% (sector: 6.0%). Net profit margin stands at 2.7%, versus 3.0% for the average Materials stock. Profitability is below benchmark levels, which may reflect industry headwinds, elevated reinvestment, or structural challenges.
NTR Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
Nutrien Ltd. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 52.0%, compared to the Materials sector average of 41.0%. Leverage is within a manageable range for the industry, though investors should monitor debt trends over time. Total debt on the balance sheet is $12.62B. Cash and equivalents stand at $853M.
NTR has a beta of 0.24, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for Nutrien Ltd. is 80/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
Nutrien Ltd. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, Nutrien Ltd. reported revenue of $25.97B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.36. Net income for the quarter was $700M. Gross margin was 29.0%. Operating income came in at $1.86B.
In FY 2024, Nutrien Ltd. reported revenue of $25.97B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.36. Net income for the quarter was $700M. Gross margin was 29.0%. Revenue grew -10.6% year-over-year compared to FY 2023. Operating income came in at $1.86B.
In FY 2023, Nutrien Ltd. reported revenue of $29.06B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.53. Net income for the quarter was $1.28B. Gross margin was 29.2%. Revenue grew -23.3% year-over-year compared to FY 2022. Operating income came in at $2.75B.
In FY 2022, Nutrien Ltd. reported revenue of $37.88B. Net income for the quarter was $7.69B. Gross margin was 40.7%. Revenue grew 36.7% year-over-year compared to FY 2021. Operating income came in at $10.81B.
Over the past 8 quarters, Nutrien Ltd. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $19.64B to $25.97B. Investors analyzing NTR stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
NTR Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among growth-oriented companies in the Chemicals industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Materials dividend stocks may want to explore other Materials stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.
NTR Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) has a momentum factor score of 64/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 62/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 48/100 reflects moderate short selling activity.
NTR vs Competitors — Materials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing NTR against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full NTR vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how Nutrien Ltd. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
NTR Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy NTR? — Investment Thesis Summary
The bull case for Nutrien Ltd. rests on several quantitative strengths. The quality score of 37/100 flags below-average profitability. The value score of 70/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 64/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. Low volatility (stability score 80/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) earns a Buy rating with a composite score of 56.6/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on NTR stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingBuy
Sections
Executive Summary
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) is a global leader in the production and distribution of crop inputs, including potash, nitrogen, and phosphate products. The company's Hold rating in the BCR Quant Model reflects its relatively strong position in the agriculture industry, but also concerns around its profitability, growth prospects, and valuation. The key takeaway is that while Nutrien is well-positioned to benefit from long-term agricultural trends, its near-term financial performance and growth outlook may face headwinds.
Business Strategy & Overview
Nutrien operates as an integrated crop inputs and services company, with a focus on the production and distribution of potash, nitrogen, and phosphate products. The company's vertically integrated business model allows it to control the entire supply chain, from mining and processing raw materials to distributing final products to retailers and farmers. Nutrien's extensive network of over 2,000 retail locations in North America, South America, and Australia provides it with a significant competitive advantage in terms of market reach and customer relationships.
The company's strategic focus is on leveraging its scale, global footprint, and product diversification to capitalize on rising global demand for agricultural commodities. Nutrien is investing in capacity expansions, technological innovations, and supply chain optimization to improve its operational efficiency and meet the evolving needs of its customers. Additionally, the company is exploring opportunities to diversify its product portfolio and expand into adjacent markets, such as precision agriculture and digital farming solutions.
Nutrien operates in a highly cyclical industry that is influenced by factors such as weather patterns, crop prices, and government policies. To mitigate these risks, the company has implemented measures to enhance its financial stability and operational flexibility, including debt reduction, cost-cutting initiatives, and the implementation of advanced analytics and digital tools.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Gross Margin
Core pricing power
29.0%
Sector: 29.8%
IN LINE
Economic Moat Analysis
Nutrien's competitive advantage is primarily derived from its scale, global reach, and vertical integration. As one of the world's largest producers of crop inputs, the company benefits from significant economies of scale, which allow it to maintain a cost advantage over smaller competitors. Nutrien's extensive network of retail locations, combined with its ability to source raw materials and distribute final products efficiently, also provides it with a strong distribution and logistics moat.
The company's vertically integrated business model further enhances its competitive position by giving it greater control over the entire supply chain, from mining and processing to distribution and customer relationships. This allows Nutrien to better manage costs, ensure product quality and availability, and provide value-added services to its customers.
Additionally, Nutrien's significant investments in research and development, as well as its partnerships with leading agricultural technology providers, have enabled it to develop a pipeline of innovative products and services that cater to the evolving needs of its customers. This intangible asset, in the form of proprietary technology and know-how, contributes to the company's overall competitive advantage.
However, the crop inputs industry is also characterized by relatively low barriers to entry, which could potentially erode Nutrien's competitive position over time. The company's ability to maintain its cost leadership, technological edge, and customer relationships will be crucial in sustaining its economic moat.
Financial Health & Profitability
Nutrien's financial performance has been mixed in recent years. The company has experienced significant volatility in its revenue and profitability, reflecting the cyclical nature of the crop inputs industry. In the fiscal year 2022, Nutrien reported record-high revenue of $37.88 billion and a net income of $7.69 billion, driven by strong demand and higher commodity prices. However, in the fiscal year 2023, the company's revenue and net income are expected to decline to $29.06 billion and $1.28 billion, respectively, as market conditions normalize.
Nutrien's profitability, as measured by its gross and operating margins, has also fluctuated widely. The company's gross margin ranged from 15.3% in fiscal year 2017 to 40.7% in fiscal year 2022, while its operating margin varied from 2.1% to 28.5% over the same period. These wide swings in profitability highlight the cyclical nature of the business and the company's vulnerability to external market forces.
Nutrien's balance sheet is moderately leveraged, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 52.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 40.0%. The company's free cash flow generation has also been uneven, ranging from a negative $14.73 billion in fiscal year 2018 to a positive $25.18 billion in fiscal year 2022. This volatility in cash flow could limit Nutrien's financial flexibility and its ability to invest in growth initiatives or weather potential downturns.
Overall, Nutrien's financial health is adequate, but the company's performance is heavily dependent on the cyclical dynamics of the crop inputs industry, which could pose challenges in the near term.
Valuation Assessment
Nutrien's valuation metrics present a mixed picture. The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 55.0x is significantly higher than the industry average of 26.1x, suggesting that the stock may be overvalued relative to its peers. However, Nutrien's enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 3.4x is lower than the industry average of 5.2x, indicating that the stock may be undervalued based on this metric.
Nutrien's free cash flow (FCF) yield of 4.8% is relatively attractive compared to the industry average of 3.6%, suggesting that the company is generating a decent level of cash flow relative to its market capitalization. This could be a positive signal for value-oriented investors.
It's worth noting that Nutrien's valuation has been highly volatile, driven by the cyclical nature of the crop inputs industry. The company's valuation multiples have ranged from relatively low levels during periods of weaker commodity prices to much higher levels during periods of strong demand and high crop prices.
Overall, Nutrien's valuation appears to be in a transitional phase, with the stock potentially undervalued based on certain metrics but overvalued based on others. Investors should closely monitor the company's financial performance and industry dynamics to assess the appropriateness of the current valuation.
Risk & Uncertainty
Nutrien's business faces several key risks and uncertainties that could impact its financial performance and growth prospects. Firstly, the company is heavily exposed to the cyclical nature of the agricultural commodity markets, which can lead to significant volatility in its revenue, earnings, and cash flow. Factors such as weather patterns, crop prices, and government policies can have a significant influence on the demand for Nutrien's products, which could lead to periods of lower profitability.
Additionally, Nutrien operates in a highly competitive industry, with both large-scale global players and smaller regional competitors. The company's ability to maintain its cost leadership, technological edge, and customer relationships will be crucial in fending off competition and preserving its market share.
Another key risk is Nutrien's exposure to regulatory changes, particularly in areas such as environmental regulations and subsidies for alternative energy sources. These factors could impact the company's cost structure and the overall demand for its products, potentially affecting its financial performance.
Finally, Nutrien's significant debt load and the cyclical nature of its business could make it vulnerable to financial distress during periods of economic downturn or industry-specific challenges. The company's ability to manage its debt levels and maintain a strong balance sheet will be critical in navigating these risks.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWNutrien is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing global demand for agricultural commodities, driven by population growth, rising living standards, and the need to feed a more populous and affluent world.
BULL VIEWThe company's vertically integrated business model, extensive retail network, and investments in innovation provide it with a sustainable competitive advantage that will be difficult for competitors to replicate.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWNutrien's financial performance is highly dependent on the cyclical nature of the crop inputs industry, which could lead to periods of significant volatility and weaker profitability.
BEAR VIEWThe company's relatively high debt levels and reliance on external factors, such as commodity prices and government policies, make it vulnerable to potential downturns or regulatory changes.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score NTR and 4,400+ other equities.
Nutrien Ltd. exhibits a 10% valuation discount relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a balanced risk/reward profile based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
5.4%
Sector: 0.6%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
29.0%
Sector: 29.8%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
7.1%
Sector: 6.0%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
2.7%
Sector: 3.0%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
