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Relative valuation derived from Materials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
21.1%
Sector: 3.3%
Dividend Analysis audit
No Dividend
This company does not currently pay a dividend.
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) receives a "Buy" rating with a composite score of 56.6/100, ranked #28 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 72/100, Momentum 66/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Do?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois. CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Materials sector, specifically within the Chemicals industry. The company is led by CEO W. Anthony Will and employs approximately 2,700 people, headquartered in DEERFIELD, Illinois. With a market capitalization of $19.7B, CF is one of the prominent companies in the Materials sector.
As of April 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 56.6/100 and 4 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.CF ranks #28 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Materials sector, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ranks #1 of 284 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Materials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
CF Stock Price and 52-Week Range
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) currently trades at $120.60. The stock gained $1.22 (1.0%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for CF is $137.44, which means the stock is currently trading -12.3% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $67.34, putting the stock 79.1% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 3.7M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is CF Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) carries a value factor score of 72/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 11.79x, compared to the Materials sector average of 26.50x — a discount of 56%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 2.49x, versus the sector average of 2.83x. The price-to-sales ratio is 2.94x, compared to 0.74x for the average Materials stock. On an enterprise value basis, CF trades at 11.04x EV/EBITDA, versus 6.01x for the sector. The EV/EBIT multiple is 8.38x.
Based on these multiples, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 21.1%, compared to the Materials sector average of 3.3%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 11.7% versus the sector average of 0.6%.
On a margin basis, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reports gross margins of 36.2%, compared to 29.8% for the sector. The operating margin is 30.8% (sector: 6.0%). Net profit margin stands at 24.9%, versus 3.0% for the average Materials stock. Revenue growth is running at 5.5% on a trailing basis, compared to 1.8% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
CF Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 41.0%, compared to the Materials sector average of 41.0%. The low leverage indicates a conservative balance sheet with significant financial flexibility. The current ratio is 3.37x, indicating strong short-term liquidity. Total debt on the balance sheet is $3.21B. Cash and equivalents stand at $1.84B.
CF has a beta of 0.27, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is 67/100, reflecting average volatility within the normal range for its sector.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $6.58B and earnings per share (EPS) of $8.98. Net income for the quarter was $1.64B. Gross margin was 36.2%. Operating income came in at $2.05B.
In FY 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $7.08B and earnings per share (EPS) of $8.98. Net income for the quarter was $1.80B. Gross margin was 38.5%. Revenue grew 19.3% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $2.30B.
In Q3 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $1.66B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.19. Net income for the quarter was $460M. Gross margin was 38.1%. Revenue grew 21.1% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $580M.
In Q2 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $1.89B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.37. Net income for the quarter was $492M. Gross margin was 40.0%. Revenue grew 20.2% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $648M.
Over the past 8 quarters, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $1.57B to $6.58B. Investors analyzing CF stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
CF Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among growth-oriented companies in the Chemicals industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Materials dividend stocks may want to explore other Materials stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.
CF Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has a momentum factor score of 66/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 31/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 45/100 reflects moderate short selling activity.
CF vs Competitors — Materials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing CF against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full CF vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how CF Industries Holdings, Inc. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
CF Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy CF? — Investment Thesis Summary
The bull case for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. rests on several quantitative strengths. The value score of 72/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 66/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. Low volatility (stability score 67/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) earns a Buy rating with a composite score of 56.6/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on CF stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingBuy
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on CF Industries (CF), driven by a balanced view of its strong profitability and attractive valuation metrics offset by the cyclical nature of the fertilizer industry and the inherent volatility in nitrogen prices. While CF Industries exhibits superior operational efficiency and returns compared to its peers, the dependence on commodity prices and the potential for demand fluctuations warrant a cautious approach. The company's strategic investments in decarbonization and clean energy initiatives offer long-term growth potential, but the near-term outlook remains tied to macroeconomic factors and agricultural commodity cycles.
The primary takeaway is that CF Industries presents a compelling value proposition at current levels, but investors should be aware of the inherent cyclicality and price volatility associated with the nitrogen fertilizer market. The company's strong financial health and commitment to shareholder returns provide a degree of downside protection, but the upside potential is likely capped by the industry's inherent limitations. We believe a Hold rating appropriately reflects the balance between opportunity and risk.
Business Strategy & Overview
CF Industries operates as a manufacturer and distributor of nitrogen and hydrogen products, primarily serving the agricultural sector with fertilizers. The company's core business revolves around the production of anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), which are essential nutrients for crop growth. CF Industries strategically positions itself to capitalize on the global demand for nitrogen fertilizers, driven by the increasing need for food production to support a growing population. The company's integrated network of production facilities and distribution channels allows it to efficiently serve customers across North America and internationally.
A key element of CF Industries' strategy is its focus on operational excellence and cost optimization. The company continuously invests in its manufacturing facilities to improve efficiency, reduce production costs, and enhance product quality. This focus on cost leadership enables CF Industries to maintain profitability even during periods of low nitrogen prices. Furthermore, the company actively manages its supply chain to ensure a reliable and cost-effective supply of raw materials, such as natural gas, which is a primary input in nitrogen fertilizer production.
Beyond its core fertilizer business, CF Industries is increasingly focused on expanding into adjacent markets, such as emissions abatement and clean energy. The company is investing in projects to produce low-carbon ammonia, which can be used as a fuel source or as a feedstock for other industrial processes. These investments align with the growing global emphasis on decarbonization and sustainability, positioning CF Industries to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the clean energy sector. The company is also exploring opportunities to utilize its existing infrastructure and expertise to produce other industrial gases, such as hydrogen, which has a wide range of applications in various industries.
CF Industries' strategic positioning within the fertilizer industry is further strengthened by its long-standing relationships with cooperatives, independent distributors, and other key customers. The company's commitment to providing reliable supply and high-quality products has fostered strong customer loyalty. Additionally, CF Industries actively engages with industry stakeholders to promote best practices in fertilizer application and environmental stewardship. This proactive approach helps to ensure the long-term sustainability of the nitrogen fertilizer market and reinforces CF Industries' position as a responsible industry leader.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
5.5%
Sector: 1.8%
+216% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
CF Industries possesses a narrow economic moat, primarily derived from cost advantages and, to a lesser extent, efficient scale. The company's large-scale production facilities and integrated network enable it to achieve lower per-unit production costs compared to smaller, less efficient competitors. This cost advantage allows CF Industries to maintain profitability even during periods of low nitrogen prices, providing a competitive edge in the cyclical fertilizer market. The company's access to low-cost natural gas, a key input in nitrogen fertilizer production, further enhances its cost competitiveness.
The efficient scale of CF Industries' operations also contributes to its narrow moat. The nitrogen fertilizer industry is characterized by high capital costs and significant economies of scale. New entrants face substantial barriers to entry, as they must invest heavily in production facilities and distribution infrastructure to compete effectively with established players like CF Industries. This limits the potential for new competition and allows CF Industries to maintain its market share.
However, the moat is considered narrow due to the commodity nature of nitrogen fertilizers. While CF Industries enjoys cost advantages, its products are largely undifferentiated, and customers can easily switch to alternative suppliers based on price. This limits the company's pricing power and exposes it to the volatility of the nitrogen fertilizer market. Furthermore, the industry is subject to cyclical fluctuations in demand and supply, which can impact profitability and erode the company's competitive advantage.
The absence of strong brand loyalty or proprietary technology further weakens CF Industries' moat. Unlike some other industries, where brand recognition or technological innovation can create a significant competitive advantage, the nitrogen fertilizer market is primarily driven by price and availability. This makes it difficult for CF Industries to differentiate itself from its competitors and build a sustainable competitive advantage based on factors other than cost.
While CF Industries' investments in decarbonization and clean energy initiatives could potentially strengthen its moat in the long term, these initiatives are still in their early stages and have yet to generate a significant impact on the company's competitive position. The success of these initiatives will depend on factors such as government regulations, technological advancements, and market acceptance of low-carbon ammonia as a fuel source or feedstock.
Financial Health & Profitability
CF Industries exhibits strong financial health, characterized by robust profitability, solid cash flow generation, and a manageable debt load. The company's revenue has shown some volatility over the past few years, reflecting the cyclical nature of the fertilizer industry. However, its gross margins, operating margins, and net margins consistently outperform the sector averages, indicating superior operational efficiency and cost management. The TTM gross margin of 36.2%, operating margin of 30.8%, and net margin of 24.9% are significantly higher than the sector averages of 30.2%, 6.0%, and 3.0%, respectively.
The company's return on equity (ROE) of 21.1% is also substantially higher than the sector average of 2.7%, demonstrating its ability to generate strong returns on shareholder equity. This high ROE is a testament to CF Industries' efficient capital allocation and effective management of its assets. The company's free cash flow generation is also impressive, with a TTM free cash flow of $1.79 billion. This strong cash flow provides CF Industries with the financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities, return capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and maintain a healthy balance sheet.
CF Industries' balance sheet is relatively strong, with a current ratio of 3.37, indicating ample liquidity to meet its short-term obligations. The company's total cash of $1.84 billion provides a further cushion against unexpected downturns or investment opportunities. While the company has total debt of $3.21 billion, its debt-to-equity ratio of 41.00 is in line with the sector average of 40.00, suggesting a manageable level of leverage. The company's strong cash flow generation enables it to comfortably service its debt obligations and maintain a healthy credit profile.
Analyzing the quarterly financial history reveals some fluctuations in revenue and profitability, reflecting the cyclical nature of the fertilizer market. For example, revenue declined from $2.01 billion in Q1 2023 to $1.66 billion in Q3 FY2025. However, the company's ability to maintain relatively stable gross margins and operating margins throughout these fluctuations demonstrates its resilience and effective cost management. The company's net income has also shown some volatility, but overall, it has remained consistently profitable, reflecting its strong underlying business fundamentals.
Valuation Assessment
CF Industries' valuation appears attractive based on several key metrics. The company's P/E ratio of 13.9x is significantly lower than the sector average of 26.1x, suggesting that the stock is undervalued relative to its peers. Similarly, its EV/EBITDA ratio of 2.4x is substantially lower than the sector average of 5.2x, further indicating an attractive valuation. These low multiples reflect the market's concerns about the cyclical nature of the fertilizer industry and the potential for fluctuations in nitrogen prices.
However, when considering CF Industries' superior profitability and returns compared to its peers, the low valuation multiples appear even more compelling. The company's high ROE and strong margins justify a higher valuation premium. Furthermore, the company's consistent free cash flow generation provides a solid foundation for future growth and shareholder returns. The company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases further enhances its attractiveness to investors.
While the stock may not be considered deeply undervalued, it is certainly trading at a reasonable valuation given its strong financial health and growth prospects. The market appears to be discounting the company's long-term potential, particularly its investments in decarbonization and clean energy initiatives. As these initiatives gain traction and contribute to the company's bottom line, the stock's valuation is likely to re-rate higher.
A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis would be required to determine a precise fair value estimate. However, based on the available data and the company's strong fundamentals, it is reasonable to conclude that the stock is trading at a discount to its intrinsic value. The Hold rating reflects a balanced view of the company's attractive valuation and the inherent risks associated with the fertilizer industry. While the upside potential may be limited in the near term, the stock offers a reasonable margin of safety and the potential for long-term appreciation.
Risk & Uncertainty
CF Industries faces several key risks and uncertainties that could impact its business and financial performance. The most significant risk is the cyclical nature of the fertilizer industry, which is subject to fluctuations in demand and supply, as well as volatility in nitrogen prices. These fluctuations can significantly impact the company's revenue and profitability, making it difficult to predict future earnings with certainty. A prolonged period of low nitrogen prices could negatively impact the company's financial performance and potentially lead to a decline in its stock price.
Another key risk is the company's dependence on natural gas as a primary input in nitrogen fertilizer production. Natural gas prices can be volatile and are subject to geopolitical factors, weather conditions, and other external influences. A significant increase in natural gas prices could increase the company's production costs and reduce its profitability. While CF Industries has implemented hedging strategies to mitigate this risk, it cannot completely eliminate its exposure to natural gas price volatility.
Regulatory risks also pose a potential threat to CF Industries' business. The fertilizer industry is subject to environmental regulations related to emissions, water usage, and waste disposal. Changes in these regulations could increase the company's compliance costs and potentially limit its production capacity. Furthermore, government policies related to agricultural subsidies and trade tariffs could impact the demand for nitrogen fertilizers and affect the company's competitive position.
Competition from other fertilizer producers is another factor that could impact CF Industries' market share and profitability. The fertilizer industry is relatively concentrated, with a few large players dominating the market. Increased competition from these players could lead to price wars and reduced margins. Furthermore, the emergence of new competitors or disruptive technologies could also pose a threat to CF Industries' competitive advantage.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWCF Industries' low-cost production and efficient operations allow it to generate strong profits even when nitrogen prices are low, providing downside protection.
BULL VIEWThe company's investments in clean energy and decarbonization position it to capitalize on the growing demand for low-carbon ammonia, creating a new growth avenue.
BULL VIEWCF Industries' strong free cash flow generation enables it to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, enhancing shareholder value.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWThe cyclical nature of the fertilizer industry and the volatility in nitrogen prices make CF Industries' earnings unpredictable and subject to significant fluctuations.
BEAR VIEWCF Industries' dependence on natural gas as a primary input exposes it to the risk of rising natural gas prices, which could erode its profitability.
BEAR VIEWThe commodity nature of nitrogen fertilizers limits CF Industries' pricing power and makes it vulnerable to competition from other fertilizer producers.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score CF and 4,400+ other equities.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. exhibits a 78% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
11.7%
Sector: 0.6%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
36.2%
Sector: 29.8%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
30.8%
Sector: 6.0%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
24.9%
Sector: 3.0%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
