VHI

We rate VALHI INC /DE/ (VHI) as a Reduce with a composite score of 46.5/100 at a current price of $13.71. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (63th percentile) and value (51th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (34th percentile) and investment (36th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (26/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

VALHI INC /DE/ holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 46.5/100 places it at rank #2564 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $447M in market capitalization, VALHI INC /DE/ is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -10% combined with momentum at the 34th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 18% (-24.7pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 8% (+6.3pp vs sector) and net margins of 4.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 24%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $13.71, VALHI INC /DE/ is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 51/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 4.4x (a 80% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 1.8x (discounted to peers), P/B of 0.3x, P/S of 0.2x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to VALHI INC /DE/. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: the combination of leverage (94% D/E) and thin margins (4.3% net) amplifies downside risk. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: the combination of leverage (94% D/E) and thin margins (4.3% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 63th percentile and quality factor at the 43th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (63th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 2.03% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate VALHI INC /DE/'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include suboptimal returns on capital. Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — VALHI INC /DE/ significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, VALHI INC /DE/ receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 46.5/100 (rank #2564 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (26/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 45/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on VALHI INC /DE/ at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.