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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1748
Positioning
Market Dominance
Wholesale Trade
Wholesale
$2.3B
J. Alexander M. Douglas
United Natural Foods, Inc. distributes natural, organic, specialty, produce, and conventional grocery and non-food products in the United States and Canada. The company also imports, roasts, packages, and distributes nuts, dried fruits, seeds, trail mixes, granola, natural and organic snack items, and confections.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = UNFI ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$ITRN Ituran Location & Control Ltd. | 74 | 95 | 97 | 62 | - | - | 30.4% | 17.5% | 47.8% | 21.2% | 16.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0x | $612M | VS | |
$COR Cencora, Inc. | 70 | 84 | 77 | 70 | 21.1x | 11.8x | 123.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 9.3% | 0.7% | 508.0x | $60.5B | VS | |
$CENT CENTRAL GARDEN & PET CO | 70 | 84 | 95 | 48 | 5.9x | 3.5x | 10.4% | 4.6% | 31.9% | 8.0% | 5.2% | -2.2% | 0.0% | 75.0x | $2.1B | VS | |
$SNX TD SYNNEX CORP | 67 | 80 | 93 | 57 | 13.5x | 6.2x | 10.0% | 2.6% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 6.9% | 1.2% | 55.0x | $12.4B | VS | |
$HLF HERBALIFE LTD. | 65 | 60 | 75 | 96 | 5.0x | 1.4x | -32.4% | 6.3% | 77.7% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.0% | - | $870M | VS | |
$GIC GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL Co | 65 | 82 | 60 | 62 | 18.7x | 12.5x | 24.0% | 12.5% | 35.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.0x | $1.4B | VS | |
$JXG JX Luxventure Group Inc. | 63 | 84 | 75 | 88 | - | - | 20.4% | 11.9% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 56.5% | 0.0% | 22.0x | $6M | VS | |
$FERG Ferguson Enterprises Inc. /DE/ | 63 | 74 | 48 | 67 | 21.4x | 14.3x | 39.4% | 12.6% | 30.7% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 68.0x | $48.9B | VS | |
$SYY SYSCO CORP | 60 | 68 | 49 | 65 | 22.7x | 9.2x | 89.9% | 5.9% | 18.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 595.0x | $35.3B | VS | |
$DXPE DXP ENTERPRISES INC | 60 | 58 | 55 | 79 | 21.6x | 8.5x | 25.1% | 6.2% | 31.4% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 128.0x | $1.9B | VS | |
$UNFI UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC | 52 | 47 | 50 | 59 | - | 26.2x | -1.1% | -0.2% | 13.3% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 124.0x | $2.3B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 19.1x | 8.2x | 8.6% | 2.7% | 22.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.5x | - | REF |
UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC (UNFI) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 51.7/100. It ranks #1748 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
J. Alexander M. Douglas
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
30,300
47
31
42
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for UNFI
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Wholesale Trade sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for UNFI.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 47 | 49 | -2NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 59 | 66 | -7DRAG |
| VALUATION | 50 | 57 | -7DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 31 | 38 | -7DRAG |
| STABILITY | 42 | 40 | +2NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 38 | 30 | +8ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy -1.1% (sector 8.6%)
GM 13% vs sector 22%, OM 0% vs sector 3%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth 5%, 11yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our model assigns UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC a Hold rating, with a composite score of 51.7/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1748 of 7,333 stocks, UNFI presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
With a quality score of 47/100, UNFI shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of -1.1% (sector avg: 8.6%), gross margins of 13.3% (sector avg: 22.5%), net margins of -0.1% (sector avg: 1.4%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
UNFI's value score of 50/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include an EV/EBITDA of 26.24x, a P/B ratio of 1.52x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC's investment score of 31/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 4.6% vs. a sector average of 3.3% and a return on assets of -0.2% (sector: 2.7%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
UNFI demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 59/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 4.6% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.97 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
UNFI's stability score of 42/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.97 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 124.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC's short interest score of 38/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 124.00x). At $2.3B (mid-cap), UNFI carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC is a mid-cap company in the Wholesale Trade sector, ranked #35 of 50 in its sector (30th percentile) and #1748 of 7,333 overall (76th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -1.1% trailing the 8.6% sector median and operating margins of 0.3% below the 3.3% sector average. This below-median ranking suggests UNFI faces competitive challenges relative to stronger Wholesale Trade peers.
While UNFI currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the WHOLESALE TRADE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Investment (31) is the limiting factor — improvement here would lift the composite score most.
RANK #35 OF 50 IN CONSUMER STAPLES
EV/EBITDA 221% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 113% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 41% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF NOV 1, 2025 (Q3 FY2025)
We rate UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC (UNFI) as a Hold with a composite score of 51.7/100 at a current price of $38.98. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (59th percentile) and value (50th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (31th percentile) and stability (42th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (25/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC holds a mid-tier position (#35 of 50) within the Wholesale Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 51.7/100 places it at rank #1748 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.3B in market capitalization, UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC is a mid-cap player in the Wholesale Trade space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue is growing at 5%, though momentum at the 59th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 13% (-9.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 0% (-3.0pp vs sector) and net margins of -0.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -0%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $38.98, UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 50/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 26.2x (at a premium), P/B of 1.5x, P/S of 0.1x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
The stock may offer contrarian value if near-term headwinds prove transitory — the current weakness in factor scores may reverse if business fundamentals stabilize.
Elevated leverage (124% D/E) amplifies downside risk and limits management's financial flexibility in adverse scenarios.
Thin net margins of -0.1% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
We assign a High uncertainty rating to UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC. Key risk factors include significant leverage (124% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -0.1%), the combination of leverage (124% D/E) and thin margins (-0.1% net) amplifies downside risk. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (124% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -0.1%); the combination of leverage (124% D/E) and thin margins (-0.1% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 42th percentile and quality factor at the 47th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.
We rate UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-1.1%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -0.2%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.7/100 (rank #1748 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (25/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 46/100.
Our analysis supports a neutral stance on UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC a meaningful economic moat, scoring 25/100 on our composite assessment. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, margin superiority, reached only 10.4/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (10.4/20) and growth durability (8.3/20). GM 13% vs sector 22%, OM 0% vs sector 3%. Rev growth 5%, 11yr history. These pillars form the core of UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC's competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0/20) and economic value creation (1.1/20). Capital turnover N/A. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC's moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers are not clearly identifiable from current fundamentals. This may reflect a company in transition, a cyclical downturn, or structural challenges in the business model. We assign a quality factor of 47/100 which further underscores our concern regarding earnings sustainability.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 13%, operating margins of 0%, net margins of -0.1%. Return metrics include ROE of -1.1% and ROA of -0.2%. Relative to the Wholesale Trade sector, gross margins are 9.1 percentage points below the sector median of 22%, and ROE of -1.1% compares to a sector median of 8.6%.
The balance sheet reflects above-average leverage with D/E of 124%, revenue growth of 5%. The sector median D/E is 1%, putting UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Board member James Pappas purchased 17,000 shares of United Natural Foods (UNFI) for approximately $573,000 between January 2-5, 2026, marking his first open-market buy in over three years. The purchase suggests bullish sentiment despite the company's recent net losses and declining sales in Q1 FY2025. However, analysts recommend waiting to see if the company can achieve revenue growth in upcoming quarters before investing, noting that supply chain improvements and debt reduction efforts are positive signs.
UNFI CEO Sandy Douglas expressed "deep disappointment" with the company's fiscal 2023 third-quarter results, despite a 3.7% increase in sales. Net earnings significantly dropped and adjusted EPS fell short of Wall Street estimates, leading the company to implement actions to address profit weakness in a challenging environment. UNFI has also lowered its full-year fiscal 2023 earnings guidance.
United Natural Foods (UNFI) recently reported strong quarterly results, which boosted investor confidence despite sluggish revenue growth and earnings pressure. While these results suggest operational improvements, concerns persist regarding the company's significant debt load and the poor coverage of interest payments by earnings. Investors are urged to consider both the company's solid operational performance and the ongoing financial risks, with varying fair value estimates reflecting differing perspectives on UNFI's potential.
Allianz Asset Management GmbH significantly increased its stake in United Natural Foods, Inc. (NYSE:UNFI) by 259.4% in the third quarter, purchasing an additional 163,622 shares. After this acquisition, Allianz Asset Management GmbH now owns 226,706 shares of UNFI, valued at $8.53 million, representing 0.37% of the company. Other institutional investors like Brighton Jones LLC, AQR Capital Management LLC, and Millennium Management LLC also adjusted their positions in the company, while company insiders, including CAO Richard Eric Esper and Louis Anthony Martin, sold a portion of their holdings.
United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) is celebrating its 50th anniversary by launching the UNFI Foundation’s 50 for 50 initiative, which will award $2 million in grants to 50 nonprofit organizations across the U.S. and Canada in 2026 to strengthen local food systems. The announcement was made at their Spring and Summer Selling Show, where UNFI also honored Sacramento Natural Foods Co-op and Lundberg Family Farms with the Michael Funk Legacy Award for their contributions to innovation and sustainability in the food industry. Sandy Douglas, UNFI CEO, emphasized the company's long-standing belief that "better food builds stronger communities."
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081