JBSS

We rate SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC (JBSS) as a Hold with a composite score of 64.5/100 at a current price of $83.17. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (88th percentile) and value (75th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (33th percentile) and momentum (56th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (45/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 64.5/100 places it at rank #312 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $841M in market capitalization, SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 14%, though momentum at the 56th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 19% (-23.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 9% (+7.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 6.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 33%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $83.17, SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 75/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 13.0x (a 42% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 8.5x (discounted to peers), P/B of 2.6x, P/S of 0.8x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.13, and a stability factor in the 88th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.13 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 88th percentile and quality factor at the 70th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (88th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 3.46% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC's capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 20.2%, a 3.46% dividend yield. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 3.46% dividend yield, and the combination of 12.1% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 64.5/100 (rank #312 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (45/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 64/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on SANFILIPPO JOHN B & SON INC. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.