IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Relative to Consumer Staples Sector Median (N=180)
Metric
SFD
Benchmark
P/E Ratio
14.2x
-57%
EV/EBITDA
11.2x
+62%
Price / Book
1.7x
Implied Value Audit
OVERVALUED
Implied Fair Value (vs Sector)
-27.9%
$20.85Spot: $28.91
Spot
Implied
-50% Delta+50% Delta
Relative valuation derived from Consumer Staples sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
11.9%
Sector: 7.7%
Dividend Analysis audit
INCOME
3.21%
Trailing Yield
$3.21
Per $100 Invested
Solid dividend yield for income-focused strategies.
Est. Payout Ratio
45%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
Unlock Valuation Tools
Sign up for free access to institutional-quality research tools.
Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 53.1/100, ranked #156 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 72/100, Momentum 57/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does SMITHFIELD FOODS INC Do?
Our Mission Good food. Responsibly.® At Smithfield, we are helping to feed a world of nearly eight billion people. Our products are found on tables everywhere. We provide families with wholesome, safe and affordable food while finding new and innovative ways to care for our people, communities, animals and planet. It is our responsibility and our promise. We make more than good food. Good is what we do. Smithfield is an American food company and an industry leader in value-added packaged meats and fresh pork with over $14 billion in annual sales. We employ approximately 34,000 people in the United States and approximately 2,500 people in Mexico. We maintain high-quality standards, meeting demand through our strong relationships with thousands of U.S. family farmers and blue-chip global customers. We are a market leader due to our scale, diverse portfolio of strong brands and products and reputation as a trusted partner known for quality. We market our products under a leading portfolio of iconic brands including Smithfield, Eckrich and Nathan’s Famous, among many others. Our ambition is to be the most trusted food and protein company in North America as we feed people in the United States and around the world, while embracing a culture of responsibility, operational excellence and innovation. We produce and distribute a wide variety of packaged meats and fresh pork products both domestically and abroad. We conduct our operations through three reportable segments: Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork and Hog Production. We are a leading provider of packaged meats in the United States, with the number two branded market position by volume across the 25 key packaged meats categories in which we compete, according to Circana. These 25 key packaged meats categories represent a total addressable market opportunity of $45 billion annually, of which we had an approximate 20% market share by volume (including our private label sales) as of December 2024. We are also the largest fresh pork processor in the United States with approximately 23% market share as of Fall 2023, according to National Hog Farmer. We sell our products across diverse channels including retail and foodservice, distributing in all 50 states in the United States, as well as export markets. We are a leading exporter of pork and pork products, with export sales representing 13% of our total sales for the nine months ended September 29, 2024. Our Packaged Meats segment is the cornerstone of our business with a value-added product portfolio and profitability that has more than doubled since 2014. Alongside our Packaged Meats segment, our Fresh Pork and Hog Production segments remain integral parts of our business, providing significant scale and operational benefits in support of our product offerings and our ability to meet demand consistently across economic cycles. We believe our emphasis on value-added packaged meats, along with our commitment to food quality, strong financial position and steadfast devotion to our stated mission, will continue delivering value for our shareholders. Smithfield’s supply chain includes company-owned and contract farms in the United States and Mexico, as well as long-standing relationships with more than 4,000 independent U.S. family farms who meet our animal care and quality standards. Our model offers a resilient supply chain, providing us with several competitive advantages, including an assured supply of consistent, high-quality protein, the ability to innovate and lead in areas such as group-housed pork and the ability to deliver differentiated products to meet customer specifications. We operate 39 facilities producing fresh pork and packaged meats in the United States and one fresh pork facility in Mexico, and we focus on continually optimizing our operations by identifying opportunities to reduce costs and increase flexibility to meet market demand. Additionally, we remain committed to investing in innovation across our products, packaging and manufacturing processes. We seek to be the supplier of choice to our customers and maintain our reputation for high-quality, safe and delicious products. Our principal offices are located at 200 Commerce Street, Smithfield, Virginia 23430. SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Staples sector, specifically within the Food Products industry. The company is led by CEO C. Shane Smith and employs approximately 36,389 people. With a market capitalization of $11.3B, SFD is one of the prominent companies in the Consumer Staples sector.
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.1/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.SFD ranks #156 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Consumer Staples sector, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC ranks #7 of 180 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Consumer Staples peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
SFD Stock Price and 52-Week Range
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) currently trades at $28.91. The stock lost $0.68 (2.3%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for SFD is $26.07, which means the stock is currently trading 10.9% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $18.55, putting the stock 55.8% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 1.9M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is SFD Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) carries a value factor score of 72/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 14.15x, compared to the Consumer Staples sector average of 33.11x — a discount of 57%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.69x, versus the sector average of 1.74x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.77x, compared to 0.35x for the average Consumer Staples stock. On an enterprise value basis, SFD trades at 11.23x EV/EBITDA, versus 6.93x for the sector.
Based on these multiples, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 11.9%, compared to the Consumer Staples sector average of 7.7%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 6.7% versus the sector average of 3.1%.
On a margin basis, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC reports gross margins of 19.9%, compared to 26.2% for the sector. The operating margin is 12.9% (sector: 2.9%). Net profit margin stands at 7.5%, versus 1.6% for the average Consumer Staples stock. Revenue growth is running at 7.3% on a trailing basis, compared to 3.1% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
SFD Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC has a debt-to-equity ratio of 29.0%, compared to the Consumer Staples sector average of 72.0%. The low leverage indicates a conservative balance sheet with significant financial flexibility. The current ratio is 2.97x, indicating strong short-term liquidity. Total debt on the balance sheet is $1.99B. Cash and equivalents stand at $773M.
SFD has a beta of 0.40, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for SMITHFIELD FOODS INC is 84/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC reported revenue of $14.84B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.52. Net income for the quarter was $811M. Gross margin was 19.9%. Operating income came in at $1.14B.
In FY 2025, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC reported revenue of $15.53B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.52. Net income for the quarter was $998M. Gross margin was 13.5%. Revenue grew 9.8% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $1.29B.
In Q3 2025, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC reported revenue of $3.75B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.63. Net income for the quarter was $252M. Gross margin was 12.8%. Operating income came in at $310M.
In Q2 2025, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC reported revenue of $3.79B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48. Net income for the quarter was $188M. Gross margin was 13.2%. Operating income came in at $260M.
Over the past 8 quarters, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $3.54B to $14.84B. Investors analyzing SFD stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
SFD Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) currently pays a dividend yield of 3.2%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in SFD stock would generate approximately $$321.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Consumer Staples sector average dividend yield of 0.4%, meaning SFD offers above-average income for its sector. The net margin of 7.5% provides reasonable coverage for the dividend, though investors should monitor payout sustainability.
SFD Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) has a momentum factor score of 57/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 30/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 16/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
SFD vs Competitors — Consumer Staples Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing SFD against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full SFD vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how SMITHFIELD FOODS INC stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
SFD Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy SFD? — Investment Thesis Summary
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The value score of 72/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 84/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.1/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on SFD stock.
We'll email you when stocks you follow change their composite rating.
Institutional Research Dossier
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD). While the company exhibits strengths in its market position and operational efficiency, particularly within the packaged meats segment, concerns surrounding free cash flow generation and a relatively high P/E ratio compared to the sector temper our enthusiasm. The company's ability to navigate fluctuating input costs and maintain its market share in a competitive landscape will be crucial for future performance.
The primary takeaway is that Smithfield's current valuation appears fair, reflecting both its market leadership and its challenges. The company's focus on value-added products and its integrated supply chain provide a degree of resilience, but sustained free cash flow generation is needed to justify a more bullish outlook. Investors should closely monitor the company's ability to improve its cash flow and manage its debt levels.
Business Strategy & Overview
Smithfield Foods operates as a vertically integrated pork producer, engaging in hog production, fresh pork processing, and packaged meats. The company's strategy revolves around leveraging its scale and diverse portfolio of brands to maintain market leadership in the United States. A key component of their approach is a focus on value-added packaged meats, which have seen significant profitability growth since 2014. This segment is the cornerstone of their business, and they aim to further expand their market share within the $45 billion packaged meats category.
The company's integrated supply chain, encompassing both company-owned and contract farms, provides a degree of control over input costs and product quality. This allows them to consistently meet customer demand and innovate in areas such as animal care and differentiated product offerings. Smithfield also emphasizes operational excellence, continually seeking opportunities to reduce costs and increase flexibility within their 39 U.S. and 1 Mexican facilities. This includes investments in product, packaging, and manufacturing process innovation.
Smithfield distributes its products through diverse channels, including retail and foodservice, reaching all 50 states in the U.S. and export markets. Export sales represent a significant portion of their revenue, highlighting their global reach. The company's ambition is to be the most trusted food and protein company in North America, emphasizing responsibility, operational excellence, and innovation in their corporate culture.
The three reportable segments, Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork, and Hog Production, are strategically intertwined. While Packaged Meats drives profitability, the Fresh Pork and Hog Production segments provide scale and operational benefits, ensuring a consistent supply of protein. This integrated model aims to provide resilience across economic cycles and maintain a competitive advantage in the market.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
7.3%
Sector: 3.1%
+131% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Smithfield Foods possesses a Narrow economic moat. This assessment is based primarily on the company's brand recognition and scale advantages within the packaged meats and fresh pork markets. While not insurmountable, these factors create barriers to entry for smaller competitors and allow Smithfield to maintain a degree of pricing power.
The company's portfolio of iconic brands, including Smithfield, Eckrich, and Nathan's Famous, provides a degree of customer loyalty and allows them to command premium pricing in certain product categories. This brand recognition is a valuable intangible asset that contributes to their competitive advantage. However, the food industry is highly competitive, and consumer preferences can shift rapidly, requiring continuous innovation and marketing investment to maintain brand relevance.
Smithfield's scale also provides a cost advantage in certain areas, particularly in procurement and distribution. Their large production volumes allow them to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers and achieve economies of scale in their operations. This cost advantage is further enhanced by their vertically integrated supply chain, which provides control over input costs and ensures a consistent supply of protein.
However, the moat is not wide due to the commoditized nature of some of their products, particularly in the fresh pork segment. While Smithfield is the largest fresh pork processor in the U.S., the industry is highly competitive, and pricing is often driven by supply and demand dynamics. This limits their ability to consistently generate above-average returns in this segment. Furthermore, the company faces increasing competition from private label brands, which are gaining market share in the packaged meats category. These factors constrain the width of their economic moat.
Financial Health & Profitability
Smithfield's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company has demonstrated solid revenue growth, with a 7.3% increase in the most recent TTM period, compared to a sector average of 4.3%. This indicates strong demand for their products and effective market penetration. However, the company's free cash flow generation has been volatile, with a significant negative free cash flow of -$7.51 billion in the TTM period, largely driven by the -$6.93B in FY2023. This is a major concern, as it raises questions about the company's ability to fund future investments and return capital to shareholders.
The company's profitability metrics are generally strong, with an operating margin of 12.9% and a net margin of 7.5%, significantly higher than the sector averages of 3.1% and 1.7%, respectively. This suggests that Smithfield is effectively managing its costs and generating healthy profits from its operations. The company's return on equity (ROE) of 12.5% is also higher than the sector average of 7.8%, indicating efficient use of shareholder equity.
Smithfield's balance sheet is moderately leveraged, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 78.00, slightly higher than the sector average of 70.50. While the company has a healthy current ratio of 3.10, indicating strong liquidity, the high debt level could pose a risk if the company's earnings decline or interest rates rise. The company's total debt stands at $2.00 billion, while its total cash is $773.00 million.
Looking at the quarterly financial history, the gross margin has fluctuated between 6.1% and 13.5% over the past several years, indicating sensitivity to input costs and pricing pressures. The operating margin has also varied, reflecting the impact of these factors on the company's profitability. The significant swing in net income from $23.00M in FY2023 to $970.00M in FY2024 highlights the volatility of the business and the impact of external factors on their financial performance.
Valuation Assessment
Smithfield's valuation is mixed, suggesting it is fairly valued at its current levels. The company's P/E ratio of 36.7x is slightly higher than the sector average of 34.2x, indicating that investors are willing to pay a premium for its earnings. However, this premium may not be justified given the company's volatile free cash flow and relatively high debt levels.
The company's EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.3x is in line with the sector average, suggesting that its enterprise value is fairly valued relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. This metric provides a more comprehensive view of the company's valuation, as it takes into account its debt and cash positions.
Given the negative free cash flow in the TTM period, a traditional FCF yield analysis is not meaningful. However, the company's historical free cash flow generation has been inconsistent, making it difficult to rely on this metric for valuation purposes. The significant negative free cash flow in FY2023 raises concerns about the company's ability to generate sustainable cash flow in the future.
Overall, Smithfield's valuation appears fair, reflecting both its market leadership and its challenges. The company's strong profitability and revenue growth are offset by its volatile free cash flow and relatively high debt levels. Investors should closely monitor the company's ability to improve its cash flow and manage its debt levels before considering a more bullish outlook.
Risk & Uncertainty
Smithfield faces several key risks that could impact its financial performance and valuation. One of the most significant risks is the volatility of input costs, particularly feed costs for hogs. Fluctuations in corn and soybean prices can significantly impact the company's profitability, especially in the Hog Production segment. The company attempts to mitigate this risk through hedging strategies and supply chain management, but these efforts may not always be successful.
Another risk is the intense competition in the packaged meats and fresh pork markets. Smithfield competes with a wide range of companies, including large multinational corporations and smaller regional players. The company faces increasing competition from private label brands, which are gaining market share in the packaged meats category. This competition could put pressure on prices and margins, impacting the company's profitability.
Regulatory risks also pose a threat to Smithfield's business. The company is subject to a variety of environmental regulations, animal welfare regulations, and food safety regulations. Changes in these regulations could increase the company's costs and impact its operations. For example, stricter environmental regulations could require the company to invest in new waste treatment facilities, while stricter animal welfare regulations could require changes to its farming practices.
Finally, Smithfield's relatively high debt level poses a financial risk. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 78.00 is higher than the sector average, which could make it more vulnerable to economic downturns or unexpected expenses. If the company's earnings decline or interest rates rise, it could struggle to meet its debt obligations.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWSmithfield's focus on value-added packaged meats and strong brand portfolio will continue to drive revenue growth and profitability, exceeding sector averages.
BULL VIEWThe company's vertically integrated supply chain provides a competitive advantage, allowing it to control costs and ensure a consistent supply of high-quality protein, leading to improved margins.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWSmithfield's volatile free cash flow generation and high debt levels pose a significant risk, potentially hindering future investments and shareholder returns.
BEAR VIEWIntense competition in the packaged meats and fresh pork markets, coupled with fluctuating input costs, will pressure margins and limit the company's ability to sustain its current valuation.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score SFD and 4,400+ other equities.
SMITHFIELD FOODS INC exhibits a 30% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
6.7%
Sector: 3.1%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
19.9%
Sector: 26.2%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
12.9%
Sector: 2.9%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
7.5%
Sector: 1.6%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield0.38%
Yield Delta+745%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $321 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
