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Relative to Consumer Staples Sector Median (N=180)
Metric
ADM
Benchmark
P/E Ratio
54.3x
+64%
EV/EBITDA
47.5x
+586%
Price / Book
1.5x
Implied Value Audit
OVERVALUED
Implied Fair Value (vs Sector)
-33.1%
$46.66Spot: $69.73
Spot
Implied
-50% Delta+50% Delta
Relative valuation derived from Consumer Staples sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
2.8%
Sector: 7.7%
Dividend Analysis audit
INCOME
3.40%
Trailing Yield
$3.40
Per $100 Invested
Solid dividend yield for income-focused strategies.
Est. Payout Ratio
184%HIGH
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 52.2/100, ranked #128 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 52/100, Momentum 64/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does Archer-Daniels-Midland Co Do?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. It procures, stores, cleans, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. The company also engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and structured trade finance activities. In addition, it offers vegetable oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; crude vegetable oils, salad oils, margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, the company provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, and natural health and nutrition products, including probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and foods. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage services; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouses; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Staples sector, specifically within the Food Products industry. The company is led by CEO Juan R. Luciano and employs approximately 42,000 people, headquartered in Decatur, Illinois. With a market capitalization of $34.9B, ADM is one of the prominent companies in the Consumer Staples sector.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.2/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.ADM ranks #128 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Consumer Staples sector, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ranks #5 of 180 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Consumer Staples peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
ADM Stock Price and 52-Week Range
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) currently trades at $69.73. The stock lost $0.62 (0.9%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for ADM is $73.72, which means the stock is currently trading -5.4% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $40.98, putting the stock 70.2% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 2.9M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is ADM Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) carries a value factor score of 52/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 54.26x, compared to the Consumer Staples sector average of 33.11x — a premium of 64%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.52x, versus the sector average of 1.74x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.42x, compared to 0.35x for the average Consumer Staples stock. On an enterprise value basis, ADM trades at 47.55x EV/EBITDA, versus 6.93x for the sector.
Overall, ADM's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 2.8%, compared to the Consumer Staples sector average of 7.7%, which is below typical expectations for high-quality companies. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 1.2% versus the sector average of 3.1%.
On a margin basis, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co reports gross margins of 6.3%, compared to 26.2% for the sector. The operating margin is 1.1% (sector: 2.9%). Net profit margin stands at 0.8%, versus 1.6% for the average Consumer Staples stock. Revenue growth is running at -8.4% on a trailing basis, compared to 3.1% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
ADM Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co has a debt-to-equity ratio of 33.0%, compared to the Consumer Staples sector average of 72.0%. The low leverage indicates a conservative balance sheet with significant financial flexibility. The current ratio is 1.37x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $7.61B. Cash and equivalents stand at $1.24B.
ADM has a beta of 0.42, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co is 83/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co reported revenue of $81.65B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.23. Net income for the quarter was $637M. Gross margin was 6.3%. Operating income came in at $887M.
In FY 2025, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co reported revenue of $80.27B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.23. Net income for the quarter was $1.07B. Gross margin was 6.3%. Revenue grew -6.2% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $1.25B.
In Q3 2025, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co reported revenue of $20.37B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22. Net income for the quarter was $110M. Gross margin was 6.2%. Revenue grew 2.2% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $147M.
In Q2 2025, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co reported revenue of $21.17B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45. Net income for the quarter was $217M. Gross margin was 6.5%. Revenue grew -4.9% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $279M.
Over the past 8 quarters, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $22.25B to $81.65B. Investors analyzing ADM stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
ADM Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) currently pays a dividend yield of 3.4%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in ADM stock would generate approximately $$340.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Consumer Staples sector average dividend yield of 0.4%, meaning ADM offers above-average income for its sector.
ADM Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) has a momentum factor score of 64/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 36/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 15/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
ADM vs Competitors — Consumer Staples Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing ADM against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full ADM vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how Archer-Daniels-Midland Co stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
ADM Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy ADM? — Investment Thesis Summary
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. Price momentum is positive at 64/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. Low volatility (stability score 83/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.2/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on ADM stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM). While ADM operates in a critical industry with significant scale and a degree of stability, its recent performance, marked by declining revenue and net income, raises concerns about its near-term growth prospects. The company's exposure to commodity price fluctuations and its relatively low margins compared to the consumer staples sector contribute to our neutral stance, as we await clearer signs of a turnaround and improved profitability.
ADM's strategic focus on expanding its nutrition segment and optimizing its existing operations offers potential for future growth. However, the current valuation, while seemingly attractive based on P/E, is tempered by the company's recent struggles and the inherent cyclicality of the agricultural commodities market. We believe a Hold rating is warranted until ADM demonstrates a sustained ability to improve its financial performance and capitalize on its strategic initiatives.
Business Strategy & Overview
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) operates as a global agricultural supply chain manager and processor, connecting farmers to consumers worldwide. The company's business is structured into three primary segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment focuses on procuring, storing, transporting, and processing agricultural commodities, including oilseeds, corn, wheat, and other grains. This segment is heavily influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, weather patterns, and geopolitical events that impact agricultural production and trade flows.
The Carbohydrate Solutions segment processes corn and wheat into sweeteners, starches, ethanol, and other ingredients for the food, beverage, and industrial sectors. This segment's performance is closely tied to the demand for ethanol as a biofuel, as well as the demand for sweeteners and starches in various food and industrial applications. ADM's Nutrition segment is a key area of strategic focus, encompassing a range of products, including flavors, proteins, probiotics, and other specialty ingredients for the food, beverage, and animal nutrition markets. This segment represents a higher-margin opportunity for ADM, as it focuses on value-added products and solutions.
ADM's strategic priorities include optimizing its existing operations, expanding its nutrition business, and leveraging its global network to capitalize on emerging market opportunities. The company is investing in technology and infrastructure to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance its supply chain capabilities. ADM is also actively pursuing acquisitions and partnerships to expand its product portfolio and geographic reach in the nutrition segment. The company's scale and global presence provide a competitive advantage in sourcing, processing, and distributing agricultural commodities and ingredients.
However, ADM faces challenges related to commodity price volatility, fluctuating demand, and increasing competition. The company's ability to effectively manage these challenges and execute its strategic initiatives will be critical to its long-term success. The company's recent focus on sustainability and regenerative agriculture also reflects a growing trend in the industry, as consumers and businesses increasingly demand more environmentally friendly and socially responsible practices.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
-8.4%
Sector: 3.1%
-368% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
ADM's economic moat can be classified as Narrow. The company benefits from certain advantages related to its scale, global network, and processing capabilities, but these advantages are not insurmountable and are subject to competitive pressures. ADM's extensive infrastructure, including grain elevators, processing plants, and transportation networks, provides a cost advantage in sourcing, storing, and distributing agricultural commodities. This scale allows ADM to operate efficiently and capture economies of scale, which smaller competitors may struggle to replicate.
However, the agricultural commodities market is inherently competitive, with numerous players vying for market share. While ADM is one of the largest players in the industry, it faces competition from other large agricultural companies, as well as smaller regional players. The lack of significant product differentiation in many of ADM's core businesses limits its pricing power and makes it vulnerable to price competition. Furthermore, the cyclical nature of the agricultural commodities market can impact ADM's profitability, as periods of oversupply or weak demand can lead to lower margins and reduced earnings.
ADM's Nutrition segment offers a potential source of moat expansion, as it focuses on value-added products and solutions that command higher margins. The company's investments in research and development, as well as its acquisitions of specialized ingredient companies, are aimed at strengthening its competitive position in this segment. However, the Nutrition segment is also subject to competition from other ingredient suppliers and food technology companies.
While ADM's scale and global network provide a degree of competitive advantage, its narrow moat reflects the inherent challenges of operating in a commodity-driven industry. The company's ability to successfully expand its Nutrition segment and differentiate its products and services will be crucial to widening its moat and improving its long-term profitability. The company's focus on sustainability and regenerative agriculture could also contribute to its competitive advantage, as consumers and businesses increasingly demand more environmentally friendly and socially responsible practices.
Financial Health & Profitability
ADM's financial health presents a mixed picture. While the company maintains a relatively stable balance sheet, its recent financial performance has been lackluster, with declining revenue and net income. The company's revenue for the most recent fiscal year was $80.27 billion, a decrease from $85.53 billion in the prior year and $93.94 billion the year before that. Net income has also declined significantly, from $3.47 billion to $1.78 billion and then to $1.07 billion in the most recent fiscal year. This downward trend raises concerns about the company's ability to generate sustainable growth.
ADM's profitability metrics, such as gross margin, operating margin, and net margin, are relatively low compared to the consumer staples sector. The company's gross margin for the most recent fiscal year was 6.3%, significantly lower than the sector average of 26.0%. Similarly, its operating margin of 1.6% and net margin of 0.8% are well below the sector averages of 3.1% and 1.7%, respectively. These low margins reflect the competitive nature of the agricultural commodities market and ADM's exposure to commodity price fluctuations.
ADM's balance sheet is relatively healthy, with a current ratio of 1.37, indicating sufficient liquidity to meet its short-term obligations. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 33.00 is also lower than the sector average of 70.50, suggesting a conservative approach to leverage. However, the company's free cash flow is not available in the provided data, which limits our ability to assess its cash flow generation capabilities.
The quarterly financial history reveals a consistent decline in revenue and net income over the past few years. This trend is particularly concerning, as it suggests that ADM is facing challenges in maintaining its market share and profitability. The company's ability to reverse this trend and improve its financial performance will be critical to its long-term success. The company's focus on expanding its Nutrition segment and optimizing its existing operations offers potential for future growth, but it remains to be seen whether these initiatives will be sufficient to offset the challenges it faces.
Valuation Assessment
ADM's valuation presents a mixed picture. The company's P/E ratio of 29.7x is lower than the consumer staples sector average of 34.2x, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers. However, this seemingly attractive valuation is tempered by the company's recent struggles and the inherent cyclicality of the agricultural commodities market. The company's EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.9x is slightly higher than the sector average of 7.3x, indicating that the stock may be fairly valued or slightly overvalued on an enterprise value basis.
Given the company's declining revenue and net income, it is difficult to justify a premium valuation. The company's low margins compared to the consumer staples sector also weigh on its valuation. While ADM's strategic focus on expanding its nutrition segment offers potential for future growth, it remains to be seen whether this segment will be able to drive significant improvements in the company's overall profitability.
The absence of free cash flow data further complicates the valuation assessment. Free cash flow is a key metric for valuing companies, as it represents the cash flow available to investors after all operating expenses and capital expenditures have been paid. Without this data, it is difficult to determine whether ADM is generating sufficient cash flow to support its dividend payments and other capital allocation priorities.
Overall, ADM's valuation appears to be fair to slightly undervalued based on its P/E ratio, but this is offset by its declining financial performance and low margins. We believe a Hold rating is warranted until ADM demonstrates a sustained ability to improve its financial performance and capitalize on its strategic initiatives. Investors should closely monitor the company's revenue growth, profitability, and cash flow generation in the coming quarters to assess its long-term value.
Risk & Uncertainty
ADM faces several key risks and uncertainties that could impact its financial performance and stock price. One of the most significant risks is commodity price volatility. The company's earnings are heavily influenced by fluctuations in the prices of agricultural commodities, such as corn, soybeans, and wheat. These prices can be affected by a variety of factors, including weather patterns, global supply and demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. Unexpected price swings can negatively impact ADM's margins and profitability.
Another risk is related to regulatory changes and trade policies. ADM operates in a highly regulated industry, and changes in government regulations or trade policies could have a material impact on its business. For example, changes in biofuel mandates or trade agreements could affect the demand for ethanol and other agricultural products. The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and other countries also pose a risk to ADM's global operations.
Competition is another significant risk. The agricultural commodities market is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for market share. ADM faces competition from other large agricultural companies, as well as smaller regional players. The company's ability to maintain its market share and profitability depends on its ability to effectively compete on price, quality, and service.
Additionally, ADM faces operational risks related to its global supply chain. Disruptions to the supply chain, such as transportation delays or plant shutdowns, could negatively impact the company's ability to source, process, and distribute agricultural commodities. The company also faces risks related to food safety and quality control. Any incidents of food contamination or quality issues could damage ADM's reputation and lead to legal liabilities.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWADM's strategic focus on expanding its higher-margin Nutrition segment will drive improved profitability and earnings growth in the long term.
BULL VIEWThe company's extensive global network and infrastructure provide a significant competitive advantage in sourcing, processing, and distributing agricultural commodities.
BULL VIEWADM's commitment to sustainability and regenerative agriculture will resonate with increasingly environmentally conscious consumers and businesses, enhancing its brand value.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWADM's reliance on commodity markets exposes it to significant price volatility, which can negatively impact its margins and earnings.
BEAR VIEWThe company's low margins compared to the consumer staples sector limit its ability to generate sustainable growth and returns for shareholders.
BEAR VIEWDeclining revenue and net income trends indicate that ADM is facing challenges in maintaining its market share and profitability in a competitive industry.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score ADM and 4,400+ other equities.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co exhibits a 164% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
1.2%
Sector: 3.1%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
6.3%
Sector: 26.2%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
1.1%
Sector: 2.9%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
0.8%
Sector: 1.6%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield0.38%
Yield Delta+795%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $340 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
