BG

We rate Bunge Global SA (BG) as a Hold with a composite score of 58.3/100 at a current price of $122.22. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (91th percentile) and momentum (74th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (20th percentile) and quality (42th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (34/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Bunge Global SA holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 58.3/100 places it at rank #857 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $15.7B market capitalization, Bunge Global SA operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 67% and momentum in the 74th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 20th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 5% (-37.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 2% (+0.5pp vs sector) and net margins of 1.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 34%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $122.22, Bunge Global SA is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 57/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 23.9x (roughly in line with the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 34.0x (at a premium), P/B of 1.4x, P/S of 0.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to Bunge Global SA. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.49, and a stability factor in the 91th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.49 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets; the combination of leverage (59% D/E) and thin margins (1.8% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 91th percentile and quality factor at the 42th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (91th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 3.40% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Bunge Global SA's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 5.7%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 59%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Bunge Global SA falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 3.40% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Bunge Global SA receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 58.3/100 (rank #857 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (34/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 57/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Bunge Global SA. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.