TTAM

We rate Titan America SA (TTAM) as a Hold with a composite score of 57.2/100 at a current price of $19.22. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (78th percentile) and value (75th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (37th percentile) and investment (38th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (50/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Titan America SA holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 57.2/100 places it at rank #1004 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $384M in market capitalization, Titan America SA is a small-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 3%, though momentum at the 37th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 25% (-17.7pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 16% (+3.4pp vs sector) and net margins of 10.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 40%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $19.22, Titan America SA appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 75/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 3.0x (discounted to peers), P/B of 4.7x, P/S of 0.5x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Titan America SA. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: risk factors are within normal ranges. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 64th percentile with quality at the 78th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (64th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Titan America SA's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 89.0%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 62%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Titan America SA falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Titan America SA receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 57.2/100 (rank #1004 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (50/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 58/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Titan America SA. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.