TGB

We rate TASEKO MINES LTD (TGB) as a Hold with a composite score of 52.9/100 at a current price of $8.39. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (92th percentile) and value (38th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (27th percentile) and investment (28th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (20/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

TASEKO MINES LTD holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 52.9/100 places it at rank #1551 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $563M in market capitalization, TASEKO MINES LTD is a small-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Despite positive momentum (92th percentile), revenue contraction of -100% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

Margin data is not available for TASEKO MINES LTD, which limits our assessment of the company's cost structure and operating efficiency. We rely on factor-based signals to infer business quality in the absence of detailed margin data.

At a current price of $8.39, TASEKO MINES LTD is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 38/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 17.4x (at a premium), P/B of 8.2x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to TASEKO MINES LTD. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.48), significant leverage (158% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (33th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.48); significant leverage (158% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (33th percentile); weak quality scores (27th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 33th percentile and quality factor at the 27th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate TASEKO MINES LTD's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-0.2%), elevated leverage (158% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA -0.1%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — TASEKO MINES LTD significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, TASEKO MINES LTD receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.9/100 (rank #1551 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (20/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 43/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on TASEKO MINES LTD. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.