SWIM

We rate Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM) as a Hold with a composite score of 56.0/100 at a current price of $7.03. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (79th percentile) and quality (62th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a No Moat rating (33/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Latham Group, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 56.0/100 places it at rank #1145 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $876M in market capitalization, Latham Group, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 1%, though momentum at the 41th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 34% (-8.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 8% (+6.7pp vs sector) and net margins of 3.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 10%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $7.03, Latham Group, Inc. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 79/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 33.5x (a 51% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 19.9x (at a premium), P/B of 2.0x, P/S of 1.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Latham Group, Inc.. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.90), the combination of leverage (69% D/E) and thin margins (3.2% net) amplifies downside risk. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.90); the combination of leverage (69% D/E) and thin margins (3.2% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 49th percentile and quality factor at the 62th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate Latham Group, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include suboptimal returns on capital. Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Latham Group, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Latham Group, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 56.0/100 (rank #1145 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (33/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 56/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Latham Group, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.