SJM

We rate J M SMUCKER Co (SJM) as a Hold with a composite score of 60.4/100 at a current price of $109.33. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (92th percentile) and value (85th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (30th percentile) and momentum (42th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (27/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

J M SMUCKER Co holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 60.4/100 places it at rank #654 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $10.9B market capitalization, J M SMUCKER Co operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 3%, though momentum at the 42th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 31% (-11.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -1% (-2.5pp vs sector) and net margins of -6.0%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -20%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $109.33, J M SMUCKER Co appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 85/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 49.1x (a 121% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 384.0x (at a premium), P/B of 1.9x, P/S of 1.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to J M SMUCKER Co. Key risk factors include significant leverage (116% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -6.0%), low beta of 0.21 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (116% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -6.0%); low beta of 0.21 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets; elevated valuation multiple (P/E 49.1x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 92th percentile and quality factor at the 60th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (92th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 4.23% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate J M SMUCKER Co's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-8.4%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -2.9%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — J M SMUCKER Co significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, J M SMUCKER Co receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 60.4/100 (rank #654 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (27/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 62/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on J M SMUCKER Co. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.