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Relative valuation derived from Materials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 48GRADE C
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
70.1%
Sector: 3.3%
Dividend Analysis audit
No Dividend
This company does not currently pay a dividend.
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 55.9/100, ranked #325 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 48/100, Value 63/100, Momentum 87/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does Orla Mining Ltd. Do?
Orla Mining Ltd. acquires, explores for, and develops mineral properties. The company explores for gold, silver, zinc, lead, and copper deposits. It owns 100% interests in the Camino Rojo project that consists of seven concessions covering an area of 163,129 hectares located in Zacatecas, Mexico; and Cerro Quema project totaling an area of 14,800 hectares located in the Azuero Peninsula, Panama. The company was formerly known as Red Mile Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Orla Mining Ltd. in June 2015. Orla Mining Ltd. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) is classified as a mid-cap stock in the Materials sector, specifically within the Precious Metals industry. The company is led by CEO Jason D. Simpson and employs approximately 210 people. With a market capitalization of $5.7B, ORLA is one of the notable companies in the Materials sector.
Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, Orla Mining Ltd. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 55.9/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.ORLA ranks #325 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Materials sector, Orla Mining Ltd. ranks #16 of 284 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Materials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
ORLA Stock Price and 52-Week Range
Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) currently trades at $17.89. The stock gained $0.16 (0.9%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for ORLA is $20.80, which means the stock is currently trading -14.0% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $7.08, putting the stock 152.6% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 681K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is ORLA Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) carries a value factor score of 63/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 63.32x, compared to the Materials sector average of 26.50x — a premium of 139%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 11.76x, versus the sector average of 2.83x. The price-to-sales ratio is 4.40x, compared to 0.74x for the average Materials stock. On an enterprise value basis, ORLA trades at 6.80x EV/EBITDA, versus 6.01x for the sector. The EV/EBIT multiple is 37.88x.
Overall, ORLA's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
Orla Mining Ltd. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) earns a quality factor score of 48/100, signaling below-average profitability metrics relative to the broader market. The return on equity (ROE) is 70.1%, compared to the Materials sector average of 3.3%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 59.5% versus the sector average of 0.6%.
On a margin basis, Orla Mining Ltd. reports gross margins of 74.8%, compared to 29.8% for the sector. The operating margin is 47.5% (sector: 6.0%). Net profit margin stands at 26.2%, versus 3.0% for the average Materials stock. Revenue growth is running at 47.2% on a trailing basis, compared to 1.8% for the sector. Profitability is below benchmark levels, which may reflect industry headwinds, elevated reinvestment, or structural challenges.
ORLA Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
Orla Mining Ltd. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0%, compared to the Materials sector average of 41.0%. The low leverage indicates a conservative balance sheet with significant financial flexibility. Total debt on the balance sheet is $1M. Cash and equivalents stand at $161M.
ORLA has a beta of 0.57, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for Orla Mining Ltd. is 47/100, reflecting average volatility within the normal range for its sector.
Orla Mining Ltd. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, Orla Mining Ltd. reported revenue of $339M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28. Net income for the quarter was $89M. Gross margin was 74.8%. Operating income came in at $161M.
In FY 2024, Orla Mining Ltd. reported revenue of $339M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28. Net income for the quarter was $89M. Gross margin was 74.8%. Revenue grew 47.2% year-over-year compared to FY 2023. Operating income came in at $161M.
In FY 2023, Orla Mining Ltd. reported revenue of $230M and earnings per share (EPS) of $-0.09. Net income for the quarter was $-27M. Gross margin was 72.5%. Revenue grew 20.8% year-over-year compared to FY 2022. Operating income came in at $17M.
In FY 2022, Orla Mining Ltd. reported revenue of $191M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17. Net income for the quarter was $46M. Gross margin was 73.6%. Revenue grew 10528.6% year-over-year compared to FY 2021. Operating income came in at $95M.
Over the past 7 quarters, Orla Mining Ltd. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $0 to $339M. Investors analyzing ORLA stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
ORLA Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among smaller companies in the Precious Metals industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Materials dividend stocks may want to explore other Materials stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.
ORLA Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) has a momentum factor score of 87/100, indicating strong price momentum with the stock outperforming the majority of the market over recent periods. Stocks with high momentum scores have historically tended to continue their outperformance in the near term. The investment factor score is 32/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 24/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
ORLA vs Competitors — Materials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing ORLA against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full ORLA vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how Orla Mining Ltd. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
ORLA Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy ORLA? — Investment Thesis Summary
Orla Mining Ltd. presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The value score of 63/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 87/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers.
In summary, Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 55.9/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on ORLA stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
Orla Mining Ltd. receives a Hold rating, justified by a mixed financial profile. While the company exhibits impressive profitability metrics and revenue growth, its valuation appears stretched relative to the sector, and its historical free cash flow generation has been inconsistent. The current valuation reflects significant optimism regarding future growth, which may not be fully warranted given the inherent risks associated with mining operations and project development.
The company's strong recent performance, particularly in revenue and profitability, is undeniable. However, the sustainability of these high margins and growth rates remains a key question. Investors should closely monitor the company's ability to execute its growth strategy, manage costs effectively, and navigate the volatile commodity price environment. The Hold rating reflects a balanced view, acknowledging the company's strengths while also recognizing the potential downside risks.
Business Strategy & Overview
Orla Mining operates as a precious metals exploration and development company, primarily focused on gold and silver. Its core assets include the Camino Rojo project in Mexico and the Cerro Quema project in Panama. The company's strategy revolves around acquiring and developing these projects into producing mines. This involves extensive exploration to define mineral resources, followed by feasibility studies, permitting, and ultimately, construction and operation of mining facilities.
A key aspect of Orla's strategy is its focus on open-pit, heap-leach operations, which are generally lower-cost and less complex than underground mining. This approach allows the company to target lower-grade ore deposits that might not be economically viable with other mining methods. The Camino Rojo project, in particular, benefits from its proximity to existing infrastructure and processing facilities, which reduces capital expenditure and operating costs. The company also actively seeks to expand its resource base through ongoing exploration and strategic acquisitions.
Orla's success hinges on its ability to efficiently manage project development timelines and costs, as well as its ability to secure the necessary permits and approvals from regulatory authorities. The company also faces the challenge of navigating the political and social risks associated with operating in developing countries. Effective stakeholder engagement and community relations are crucial for maintaining its social license to operate.
The precious metals industry is characterized by cyclical commodity prices, fluctuating demand, and intense competition. Orla competes with other mining companies for access to capital, skilled labor, and mineral resources. The company's ability to differentiate itself through operational efficiency, project execution, and responsible mining practices will be critical for its long-term success. Furthermore, the company's strategic positioning within the industry is influenced by its ability to adapt to changing market conditions and technological advancements.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
47.2%
Sector: 1.8%
+2595% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Orla Mining's economic moat is likely Narrow. While the company exhibits strong profitability metrics, these are largely driven by the current high gold prices and efficient operations at its existing mines. The sustainability of these advantages is questionable in the long term, particularly as new projects are developed and commodity prices fluctuate.
The company's cost advantages, stemming from its open-pit, heap-leach operations, provide some degree of competitive edge. However, these advantages are not insurmountable, as other mining companies can adopt similar techniques. Furthermore, the cost structure of mining operations is highly sensitive to factors such as energy prices, labor costs, and stripping ratios, which can erode cost advantages over time.
Intangible assets, such as mineral rights and permits, can provide a degree of protection. However, these assets are subject to regulatory risks and can be challenged by competing claims. Furthermore, the value of mineral rights is dependent on the underlying resource estimates, which can be revised based on new exploration data.
Orla Mining does not appear to benefit from significant network effects or high switching costs. Customers (refineries and bullion dealers) are generally indifferent to the source of the gold and silver, and there are no significant barriers to switching suppliers. Efficient scale is also not a major factor, as the mining industry is characterized by a large number of participants, and there are no significant economies of scale beyond a certain point.
The company's future moat will depend on its ability to develop new projects with lower costs and higher grades than its competitors. This requires a combination of geological expertise, operational efficiency, and effective capital allocation. Without a clear and sustainable competitive advantage, Orla Mining's profitability is likely to be highly sensitive to commodity price fluctuations and industry competition.
Financial Health & Profitability
Orla Mining's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company's recent revenue growth has been impressive, with a 47.2% increase compared to the sector average of 1.5%. This growth is primarily attributable to the ramp-up of production at its Camino Rojo mine. However, it's important to note that the company's revenue base was relatively small in prior years, making the percentage growth appear more significant.
The company's profitability metrics are also strong, with a gross margin of 74.8%, an operating margin of 47.5%, and a net margin of 26.2%, all significantly higher than the sector averages. These high margins reflect the company's efficient operations and the favorable gold price environment. However, these margins are likely to be cyclical and could decline if gold prices fall or operating costs increase.
The company's balance sheet is relatively strong, with total cash of $160.85 million and minimal debt of $1.35 million. This gives the company financial flexibility to pursue growth opportunities and weather potential downturns in the commodity cycle. However, the company's current ratio is not available, making it difficult to assess its short-term liquidity position.
The company's free cash flow generation has been inconsistent. While the company generated $127.04 million in free cash flow in the most recent year, it experienced negative free cash flow in several prior years, particularly in FY2022 (-$390.46M) and FY2023 (-$6.32M). This volatility reflects the capital-intensive nature of mining operations and the timing of project development expenditures. The FY2021 FCF of $121.26M is an outlier due to the very low revenue.
Overall, Orla Mining's financial health is currently strong, but its historical free cash flow volatility and reliance on favorable commodity prices raise concerns about its long-term sustainability. Investors should closely monitor the company's ability to maintain its profitability and generate consistent free cash flow as it develops new projects and navigates the cyclical nature of the mining industry.
Valuation Assessment
Orla Mining's valuation appears stretched relative to its sector. The company's P/E ratio of 50.1x is significantly higher than the sector average of 26.1x, suggesting that investors are pricing in significant future growth. Similarly, the company's EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.4x is slightly above the sector average of 5.2x, indicating that the company is not undervalued on an enterprise value basis.
The company's high ROE of 70.1% compared to the sector average of 2.7% may justify a premium valuation. However, it's important to consider the sustainability of this high ROE. If the company's profitability declines in the future, its valuation could contract significantly.
The company's strong revenue growth of 47.2% also supports a higher valuation. However, it's important to remember that the company's revenue base was relatively small in prior years, making the percentage growth appear more significant. As the company's revenue base grows, it will be more difficult to maintain such high growth rates.
Given the company's high valuation multiples and the inherent risks associated with mining operations, the stock appears to be fairly valued to slightly overvalued. The current valuation reflects significant optimism regarding the company's future growth prospects, which may not be fully warranted. Investors should carefully consider the potential downside risks before investing in Orla Mining.
A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis would be necessary to determine a more precise intrinsic value for the company. However, given the limited historical data and the uncertainty surrounding future commodity prices and project development timelines, a DCF analysis would be subject to significant assumptions and sensitivities.
Risk & Uncertainty
Orla Mining faces several specific risks that could impact its business and financial performance. Commodity price risk is a significant concern, as the company's profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuations in gold and silver prices. A decline in precious metal prices could significantly reduce the company's revenue and earnings.
Project development risk is another key factor. The company's future growth depends on its ability to successfully develop its Camino Rojo and Cerro Quema projects. Delays in permitting, cost overruns, or technical challenges could negatively impact the company's financial performance.
Political and social risk is also a concern, as the company operates in developing countries. Changes in government regulations, political instability, or social unrest could disrupt the company's operations and increase its costs. Maintaining positive relationships with local communities is crucial for mitigating these risks.
Operational risk is inherent in mining operations. Accidents, equipment failures, or geological surprises could disrupt production and increase costs. The company's ability to effectively manage these risks is critical for maintaining its profitability.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWOrla Mining's efficient, low-cost operations and strong balance sheet position it to capitalize on rising gold prices and expand its production profile.
BULL VIEWThe company's successful track record of project development and exploration suggests it can continue to unlock value from its existing assets and acquire new, accretive projects.
BULL VIEWOrla Mining's high ROE and revenue growth justify its premium valuation, as it is rapidly growing into its multiple and delivering superior returns to shareholders.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWOrla Mining's high valuation is unsustainable given the cyclical nature of the mining industry and the company's reliance on favorable gold prices.
BEAR VIEWThe company's future growth is dependent on the successful development of its Camino Rojo and Cerro Quema projects, which are subject to significant permitting, technical, and political risks.
BEAR VIEWOrla Mining's inconsistent free cash flow generation and limited operating history raise concerns about its ability to sustain its profitability and fund its growth plans.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score ORLA and 4,400+ other equities.
Orla Mining Ltd. exhibits a 241% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
59.5%
Sector: 0.6%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
74.8%
Sector: 29.8%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
47.5%
Sector: 6.0%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
26.2%
Sector: 3.0%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
