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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#4392
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Chemicals
$78M
John Bissell
Origin Materials, Inc. operates as a carbon negative materials company. Its proprietary platform technology converts biomass or plant-based carbon into chloromethylfurfural and hydrothermal carbon.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | 28.5% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10.4% | -4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0x | $141.8B | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | 46.1% | 16.6% | 51.3% | 31.9% | 26.8% | -4.0% | 1.0% | 25.0x | $272.1B | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | 10.3% | 3.1% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 25.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -8.5% | 2.2% | 16.0x | $18.9B | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 35.5% | 19.8% | 48.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 32.0x | $181.9B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | 11.8% | 8.8% | 45.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 0.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.6% | 7.0% | 66.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $115M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | 22.6% | 4.9% | 71.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 124.0x | $72.1B | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | 3.0% | 1.1% | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 67.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | 8.2% | 3.5% | 55.3% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0x | $87.0B | VS | |
$ORGN Origin Materials, Inc. | 32 | 35 | 39 | 2 | - | - | -31.3% | -28.2% | 0.0% | -404.2% | -376.6% | -33.8% | 0.0% | 11.0x | $78M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -2.5% | -0.1% | 42.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) receives a "Avoid" rating with a composite score of 31.8/100. It ranks #4392 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 1-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
John Bissell
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
160
35
35
27
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for ORGN
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Below-average composite — caution warranted
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for ORGN.
View All RatingsHigh margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
ROE proxy -31.3% (sector -2.5%)
GM 0% vs sector 43%, OM -404% vs sector 1%
Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 62.3%
Rev growth -34%, 3yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our quantitative model flags Origin Materials, Inc. with an Avoid rating, assigning a composite score of 31.8/100 and 1 out of 5 stars. Ranked #4392 of 7,333 stocks, ORGN falls in the bottom tier across key factors. Historically, stocks with this profile have faced elevated risk of underperformance and capital loss.
ORGN's quality score of 35/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -31.3% (sector avg: -2.5%), gross margins of 0.0% (sector avg: 42.5%), net margins of -376.6% (sector avg: -0.2%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 39/100, ORGN appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/B ratio of 0.08x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
Origin Materials, Inc.'s investment score of 35/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -33.8% vs. a sector average of 5.9% and a return on assets of -28.2% (sector: -0.1%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
Origin Materials, Inc. is experiencing notably weak momentum with a score of just 2/100. The stock has underperformed its peers and is trending below major moving averages. Revenue growth stands at -33.8% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.31 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. While deep momentum weakness can occasionally present value opportunities, it often reflects deteriorating fundamentals or structural headwinds that may persist.
ORGN's stability score of 27/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.31 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 11.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
ORGN carries a short interest score of 66/100, indicating moderate short selling activity. This is a neutral reading — not enough to signal systemic bearishness, but worth monitoring. Specific risk factors include above-average market sensitivity (beta: 1.31), elevated leverage (D/E: 11.00x), micro-cap liquidity risk. At $78M market cap (micro-cap), Origin Materials, Inc. offers reasonable institutional liquidity.
Origin Materials, Inc. is a micro-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #4392 of 7,333 overall (40th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -31.3% trailing the -2.5% sector median and operating margins of -404.2% below the 1.3% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While ORGN currently exhibits a AVOID profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Momentum (2) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
ROE 1162% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 100% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Op. Margin 31436% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) as Avoid with a composite score of 31.8/100 at a current price of $0.15. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (39th percentile) and quality (35th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (2th percentile) and stability (27th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (26/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
Origin Materials, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 31.8/100 places it at rank #4392 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $78M in market capitalization, Origin Materials, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue contraction of -34% combined with momentum at the 2th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-42.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -404% (-405.5pp vs sector) and net margins of -376.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $0.15, Origin Materials, Inc. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 39/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.
The stock currently trades at P/B of 0.1x, P/S of 1.0x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
A conservative balance sheet (11% D/E) provides financial flexibility for acquisitions, buybacks, or weathering economic downturns without dilution.
The Avoid rating (composite 31.8/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Revenue decline of -34% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
Thin net margins of -376.6% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
Weak momentum (2th percentile) suggests institutional selling pressure and unfavorable technical dynamics that may persist.
We assign a High uncertainty rating to Origin Materials, Inc.. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.31), current negative profitability (net margin -376.6%), below-average price stability (27th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.31); current negative profitability (net margin -376.6%); below-average price stability (27th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 27th percentile and quality factor at the 35th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (11% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.
We rate Origin Materials, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-31.3%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -28.2%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Origin Materials, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, Origin Materials, Inc. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 31.8/100 (rank #4392 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (26/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 28/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Origin Materials, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign Origin Materials, Inc. a meaningful economic moat, scoring 26/100 on our composite assessment. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, financial resilience, reached only 9.1/20.
The strongest moat sources are financial resilience (9.1/20) and reinvestment efficiency (7/20). Interest coverage N/A. Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 62.3%. These pillars form the core of Origin Materials, Inc.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include economic value creation (2.6/20) and margin superiority (2.7/20). ROE proxy -31.3% (sector -2.5%). Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect Origin Materials, Inc.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include declining revenues (-34%) that pressure the earnings outlook. The margin cascade from 0% gross to -404% operating to -376.6% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality raises some durability concerns, with the quality factor at the 35th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 0%, operating margins of -404%, net margins of -376.6%. Return metrics include ROE of -31.3% and ROA of -28.2%. Relative to the Manufacturing sector, gross margins are 42.5 percentage points below the sector median of 43%, and ROE of -31.3% compares to a sector median of -2.5%.
The balance sheet reflects a conservatively managed balance sheet with D/E of 11%, revenue growth of -34%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting Origin Materials, Inc. at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
WEST SACRAMENTO, Calif., February 12, 2026--Origin Materials ("Origin") (NASDAQ: ORGN, ORGNW), a technology company with a mission to enable the world’s transition to sustainable materials, today announced an organizational realignment and cost containment measures reflecting proactive steps to enhance its cash and capital resources dedicated to PET cap commercialization to allow Origin to achieve Adjusted EBITDA run-rate breakeven in 2027.
To the annoyance of some shareholders, Origin Materials, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ORGN ) shares are down a considerable 37% in the...
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Origin Materials, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ORGN ) share price has dived 25% in the last...
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