OR

We rate Osisko Gold Royalties LTD (OR) as a Hold with a composite score of 58.1/100 at a current price of $45.47. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (74th percentile) and momentum (67th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (61/100), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Osisko Gold Royalties LTD holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 58.1/100 places it at rank #884 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $3.4B in market capitalization, Osisko Gold Royalties LTD is a mid-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 190% and momentum in the 67th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 66th percentile indicates the company is reinvesting effectively to sustain this trajectory.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 102% (+59.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 41% (+28.4pp vs sector) and net margins of 10.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 11%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $45.47, Osisko Gold Royalties LTD is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 53/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 23.0x (at a premium), P/S of 13.8x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to Osisko Gold Royalties LTD. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.25, and a stability factor in the 74th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.25 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 74th percentile and quality factor at the 54th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 102% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (74th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Osisko Gold Royalties LTD's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (1.3%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Osisko Gold Royalties LTD significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Osisko Gold Royalties LTD receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 58.1/100 (rank #884 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (61/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 63/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Osisko Gold Royalties LTD. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.