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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#4622
Positioning
Market Dominance
Mining
Non-Metallic And Industrial Metal Mining
$97M
Éric Desaulniers
Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and evaluation of mineral properties in Canada. The company's flagship project is the Matawinie property that includes 392 mining claims covering an area of 21,750 hectares situated to the north of Montreal, Quebec.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$VALE Vale S.A. | 75 | 88 | 93 | 67 | - | - | 15.8% | 6.9% | 36.6% | 22.8% | 15.9% | -8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $38.7B | VS | |
$SU SUNCOR ENERGY INC | 74 | 87 | 90 | 53 | - | - | 13.1% | 6.5% | 58.3% | 18.4% | 11.0% | -3.6% | 4.9% | 29.0x | $46.0B | VS | |
$TRX TRX GOLD Corp | 72 | 83 | 77 | 96 | - | - | 10.7% | 6.1% | 41.5% | 27.8% | 11.4% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 2.0x | $104M | VS | |
$ORLA Orla Mining Ltd. | 72 | 94 | 83 | 78 | - | - | 19.6% | 15.7% | 74.8% | 47.5% | 26.2% | 47.2% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $1.7B | VS | |
$KGC KINROSS GOLD CORP | 71 | 83 | 89 | 79 | - | - | 15.1% | 9.3% | 37.8% | 31.6% | 20.0% | 21.3% | 1.3% | 21.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$AEM AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD | 71 | 80 | 80 | 71 | - | - | 9.4% | 6.5% | 60.5% | 36.0% | 22.9% | 25.0% | 2.0% | 6.0x | $38.9B | VS | |
$RIO RIO TINTO PLC | 70 | 76 | 84 | 64 | - | - | 20.3% | 11.2% | 23.0% | 20.1% | 23.1% | -1.3% | 11.2% | 26.0x | $93.8B | VS | |
$IAG IAMGOLD CORP | 70 | 71 | 82 | 89 | - | - | 29.9% | 17.1% | 33.7% | 57.8% | 51.9% | 65.4% | 0.0% | 34.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$NGD New Gold Inc. /FI | 70 | 76 | 67 | 92 | - | - | 11.1% | 4.8% | 52.8% | 19.7% | 11.1% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 38.0x | $1.7B | VS | |
$PDS PRECISION DRILLING Corp | 70 | 77 | 90 | 65 | - | - | 6.6% | 3.6% | 34.4% | 11.0% | 5.9% | -10.0% | 0.0% | 52.0x | $876M | VS | |
$NMG Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. | 29 | 16 | 2 | 35 | 4.4x | - | -190.8% | -143.6% | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 12.0x | $97M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 13.7x | 5.2x | 4.0% | 3.9% | 43.2% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NMG) receives a "Avoid" rating with a composite score of 28.5/100. It ranks #4622 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 1-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Éric Desaulniers
Chief Executive Officer
16
20
26
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for NMG
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Below-average composite — caution warranted
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Relative valuation derived from Mining sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for NMG.
View All RatingsInsufficient data for Financial Analysis
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 16 | 4 | +12ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 35 | 32 | +3NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 2 | 0 | +2NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 20 | 5 | +15ALPHA |
| STABILITY | 26 | 17 | +9ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 88 | 99 | -11DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy -190.8% (sector 4.0%)
GM N/A vs sector 43%, OM N/A vs sector 12%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth N/A, 4yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our quantitative model flags Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. with an Avoid rating, assigning a composite score of 28.5/100 and 1 out of 5 stars. Ranked #4622 of 7,333 stocks, NMG falls in the bottom tier across key factors. Historically, stocks with this profile have faced elevated risk of underperformance and capital loss.
Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. registers a weak quality score of just 16/100, indicating significant profitability challenges. The company reports a return on equity of -190.8% (sector avg: 4.0%). Low quality scores are often associated with businesses in turnaround mode, early-stage growth, or structurally challenged industries.
NMG registers a value score of just 2/100, suggesting the stock trades at a significant premium to its fundamental metrics. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 4.38x, a P/B ratio of 3.27x. High-premium valuations like this require strong future execution to avoid multiple compression, and downside risk is elevated if growth disappoints.
Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc.'s investment score of 20/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include a return on assets of -143.6% (sector: 3.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
NMG is currently showing below-average momentum at 35/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth data is not currently available, while a beta of 0.81 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
NMG's stability score of 26/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.81 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 12.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
NMG's short interest factor score of 88/100 indicates very low short selling activity relative to peers — a positive signal suggesting institutional investors see limited near-term downside. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 12.00x), micro-cap liquidity risk. As a micro-cap company with a market capitalization of $97M, Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. benefits from the generally lower volatility and deeper liquidity associated with its size class.
Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. is a micro-cap company in the Mining sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #4622 of 7,333 overall (37th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -190.8% trailing the 4.0% sector median. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Mining peers.
While NMG currently exhibits a AVOID profile, superior opportunities exist within the MINING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Value (2) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
ROE 4918% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Debt/Equity 4515% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
Div. Yield NaN% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF DEC 31, 2024 (Q3 FY2024)
We rate Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NMG) as Avoid with a composite score of 28.5/100 at a current price of $2.27. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (35th percentile) and stability (26th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in value (2th percentile) and quality (16th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (17/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 28.5/100 places it at rank #4622 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $97M in market capitalization, Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. is a small-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Momentum indicators (35th percentile) suggest caution regarding the near-term price trend. Revenue growth data is unavailable, limiting our ability to confirm whether momentum is fundamentally supported.
Margin data is not available for Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc., which limits our assessment of the company's cost structure and operating efficiency. We rely on factor-based signals to infer business quality in the absence of detailed margin data.
At a current price of $2.27, Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 2/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 4.4x (a 68% discount to the sector median of 13.7x), P/B of 3.3x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.
A conservative balance sheet (12% D/E) provides financial flexibility for acquisitions, buybacks, or weathering economic downturns without dilution.
The Avoid rating (composite 28.5/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Weak momentum (35th percentile) suggests institutional selling pressure and unfavorable technical dynamics that may persist.
Below-average quality (16th percentile) raises durability concerns about the fundamental profile and increases the risk of negative earnings surprises.
Elevated short interest (88th percentile) indicates that sophisticated market participants are betting against the stock.
We assign a High uncertainty rating to Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc.. Key risk factors include below-average price stability (26th percentile), weak quality scores (16th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: below-average price stability (26th percentile); weak quality scores (16th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 26th percentile and quality factor at the 16th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (12% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.
We rate Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-190.8%), weak asset returns (ROA -143.6%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 28.5/100 (rank #4622 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (17/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 20/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. a meaningful economic moat, scoring 17/100 on our composite assessment. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, margin superiority, reached only 10/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (10/20) and financial resilience (6.6/20). GM N/A vs sector 43%, OM N/A vs sector 12%. Interest coverage N/A. These pillars form the core of Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include economic value creation (0/20) and reinvestment efficiency (0/20). ROE proxy -190.8% (sector 4.0%). Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers are not clearly identifiable from current fundamentals. This may reflect a company in transition, a cyclical downturn, or structural challenges in the business model. We assign a quality factor of 16/100 which further underscores our concern regarding earnings sustainability.
Return metrics include ROE of -190.8% and ROA of -143.6%. Relative to the Mining sector, sector comparison data is limited, and ROE of -190.8% compares to a sector median of 4.0%.
The balance sheet reflects a conservatively managed balance sheet with D/E of 12%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Metso Oyj's stock is under scrutiny following a deal with Nouveau Monde Graphite and its Q4/FY2025 earnings release. While Simply Wall St's narrative indicates the company is 7.3% overvalued at €16.91 with a fair value of €15.76, their discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggests a 16% discount, with a fair value of €20.14. The article advises investors to review the financials themselves to reconcile these differing valuations.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
