NEM

We rate NEWMONT Corp /DE/ (NEM) as a Hold with a composite score of 62.6/100 at a current price of $124.10. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (76th percentile) and stability (71th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (54/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

NEWMONT Corp /DE/ holds a lower-quartile position (#45 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 62.6/100 places it at rank #455 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $92.6B market capitalization, NEWMONT Corp /DE/ operates at meaningful scale within the Mining sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 25% and momentum in the 76th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 41th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 65% (+21.8pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 43% (+31.2pp vs sector) and net margins of 32.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 50%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $124.10, NEWMONT Corp /DE/ is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 60/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 19.8x (a 44% premium to the sector median of 13.7x), EV/EBITDA of 15.3x (at a premium), P/B of 3.9x, P/S of 6.5x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to NEWMONT Corp /DE/. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.52, conservative leverage (15% D/E), and a stability factor in the 71th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.52 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 71th percentile and quality factor at the 65th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 65% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (15% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (71th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate NEWMONT Corp /DE/'s capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 19.8%, disciplined leverage (15% D/E), best-in-class net margins of 32.6%. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — NEWMONT Corp /DE/ approaches this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 1.19% dividend yield, and the combination of 11.8% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, NEWMONT Corp /DE/ receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 62.6/100 (rank #455 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (54/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 63/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on NEWMONT Corp /DE/. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.