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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#3597
Positioning
Market Dominance
Mining
Precious Metals
$308M
Ronald W. Thiessen
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. engages in the exploration of mineral properties in the United States. Its principal mineral property is the Pebble Copper-Gold-Molybdenum-Silver-Rhenium project.
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Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$VALE Vale S.A. | 75 | 88 | 93 | 67 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$SU SUNCOR ENERGY INC | 74 | 87 | 90 | 53 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TRX TRX GOLD Corp | 72 | 83 | 77 | 96 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ORLA Orla Mining Ltd. | 72 | 94 | 83 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$KGC KINROSS GOLD CORP | 71 | 83 | 89 | 79 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AEM AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD | 71 | 80 | 80 | 71 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$RIO RIO TINTO PLC | 70 | 76 | 84 | 64 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$IAG IAMGOLD CORP | 70 | 71 | 82 | 89 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NGD New Gold Inc. /FI | 70 | 76 | 67 | 92 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PDS PRECISION DRILLING Corp | 70 | 77 | 90 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NAK NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD | 40 | 17 | 46 | 61 | 22.8x | 13.7x | 148.8% | 105.4% | - | - | - | 77.7% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $308M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 13.7x | 5.2x | 4.3% | 3.9% | 45.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD (NAK) receives a "Avoid" rating with a composite score of 39.6/100. It ranks #3597 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 1-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Moderate investment profile
Below-average composite — caution warranted
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Relative valuation derived from Mining sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for NAK.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 17 | 5 | +12ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 61 | 64 | -3NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 46 | 46 | 0NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 50 | 81 | -31DRAG |
| STABILITY | 10 | 3 | +7ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 78 | 91 | -13DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy 148.8% (sector 4.3%)
GM N/A vs sector 46%, OM N/A vs sector 8%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth 78%, 8yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA -0.9x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD (NAK) as Avoid with a composite score of 39.6/100 at a current price of $1.53. The stock falls in the bottom quintile, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.
NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 39.6/100 places it at rank #3597 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 78% and momentum in the 61th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
Narrow
High
Exemplary
Fair Value
Returns on equity of 148.8% exceed cost of capital.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD represents a avoid based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our quantitative model flags NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD with an Avoid rating, assigning a composite score of 39.6/100 and 1 out of 5 stars. Ranked #3597 of 7,333 stocks, NAK falls in the bottom tier across key factors. Historically, stocks with this profile have faced elevated risk of underperformance and capital loss.
NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD registers a weak quality score of just 17/100, indicating significant profitability challenges. The company reports a return on equity of 148.8% (sector avg: 4.3%). Low quality scores are often associated with businesses in turnaround mode, early-stage growth, or structurally challenged industries.
With a value score of 46/100, NAK appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 22.84x, an EV/EBITDA of 13.65x, a P/B ratio of 10.72x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
With an investment score of 50/100, NAK exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 77.7% vs. a sector average of 0.1% and a return on assets of 105.4% (sector: 3.9%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
NAK demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 61/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 77.7% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.91 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD registers a low stability score of 10/100, indicating high volatility and potentially stressed financial conditions. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.91 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). Stocks at this level carry elevated capital loss risk and may be unsuitable for conservative portfolios without careful risk management.
NAK carries a short interest score of 78/100, indicating moderate short selling activity. This is a neutral reading — not enough to signal systemic bearishness, but worth monitoring. Specific risk factors include small-cap liquidity risk. At $308M market cap (small-cap), NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD offers reasonable institutional liquidity.
NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD is a small-cap company in the Mining sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #3597 of 7,333 overall (51st percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 148.8% exceeding the 4.3% sector median. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Mining peers.
While NAK currently exhibits a AVOID profile, superior opportunities exist within the MINING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Mining Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Stability (10) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 161% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 3360% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Debt/Equity 100% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081

This article discusses a novel approach to monetizing the U.S.'s vast natural resources, particularly focusing on the Pebble Project in Alaska, through "eco-patriotism" and asset tokenization. Brian Hicks proposes that instead of traditional mining, the gold, copper, and molybdenum reserves at Pebble Creek, valued at hundreds of billions, could be tokenized using blockchain technology, allowing investors to own a portion without environmental disruption. This method, supported by a concept like former President Trump's proposed sovereign wealth fund, aims to boost national financial sovereignty and economic growth while preserving American wilderness.

Investors dramatically increased their call option purchases for Northern Dynasty Minerals (NASDAQ:NAK) by 68% recently, signaling strong bullish sentiment. This activity coincided with a 17.8% surge in the company's stock price to $2.51 on Monday, as institutional investors also increased their holdings. HC Wainwright reaffirmed a "Buy" rating with a $2.50 price target, aligning with the consensus outlook for the mineral exploration company.

GAM Holding AG increased its stake in Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NASDAQ:NAK) by 23.9% in Q3, purchasing 669,100 shares to own a total of 3,469,100 shares valued at approximately $4.16 million. The stock is currently trading near $1.95, and HC Wainwright has reiterated a "Buy" rating with a $2.50 price target. Several other institutional investors also bought stakes in the company, with hedge funds and institutional investors owning 10.55% of the stock.

Northern Dynasty Minerals saw its shares drop significantly after the U.S. Department of Justice filed a brief supporting the EPA’s January 2023 veto of the company’s Pebble project in Alaska. The veto, issued under the Clean Water Act, prevents the disposal of mine waste in the Bristol Bay area, effectively halting the proposed copper, gold, and molybdenum mine. Northern Dynasty's CEO criticized the government's stance, arguing the veto was unlawful and expressing confidence that the legal challenge would succeed.

Northern Dynasty Minerals (NASDAQ:NAK) shares fell 3.4% on Wednesday, with trading volume significantly lower than its daily average. Despite this, analyst sentiment remains positive, with HC Wainwright reissuing a "Buy" rating and a $2.50 target price, aligning with the stock's average analyst rating. Institutional investors have also slightly increased their stakes in the company, which primarily focuses on its Pebble copper-gold-molybdenum project in Alaska.