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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#3973
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Chemicals
$57M
Jim Messina
LanzaTech has invented a technology big enough to meet the moment. One that transforms pollution and ensures humans continue to prosper. A future where there is no such thing as waste, and where, in fact, waste is the raw material for the next generation of products. Since 2005, we have been working to create this closed-loop system using waste carbon to make the things we use in our daily lives. LanzaTech is changing how people think about carbon, creating value and new sustainable products across multiples markets.
Headcount
3
HQ Base
Pending Verification
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = LNZA ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | 28.5% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10.4% | -4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0x | $141.8B | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | 46.1% | 16.6% | 51.3% | 31.9% | 26.8% | -4.0% | 1.0% | 25.0x | $272.1B | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | 10.3% | 3.1% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 25.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -8.5% | 2.2% | 16.0x | $18.9B | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 35.5% | 19.8% | 48.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 32.0x | $181.9B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | 11.8% | 8.8% | 45.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 0.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.6% | 7.0% | 66.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $115M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | 22.6% | 4.9% | 71.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 124.0x | $72.1B | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | 3.0% | 1.1% | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 67.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | 8.2% | 3.5% | 55.3% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0x | $87.0B | VS | |
$LNZA LanzaTech Global, Inc. | 36 | 16 | 43 | 54 | 7.0x | 3.8x | -696.1% | -107.1% | 25.0% | -295.6% | -276.8% | -46.6% | 0.0% | - | $57M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -2.5% | -0.1% | 42.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) receives a "Avoid" rating with a composite score of 36.4/100. It ranks #3973 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 1-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Direct cash return
Jim Messina
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
3
16
29
32
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for LNZA
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Below-average composite — caution warranted
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for LNZA.
View All RatingsInsufficient data for Financial Analysis
ROE proxy -696.1% (sector -2.5%)
GM 25% vs sector 43%, OM -296% vs sector 1%
Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 149.7%
Rev growth -47%, 4yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
Our quantitative model flags LanzaTech Global, Inc. with an Avoid rating, assigning a composite score of 36.4/100 and 1 out of 5 stars. Ranked #3973 of 7,333 stocks, LNZA falls in the bottom tier across key factors. Historically, stocks with this profile have faced elevated risk of underperformance and capital loss.
LanzaTech Global, Inc. registers a weak quality score of just 16/100, indicating significant profitability challenges. The company reports a return on equity of -696.1% (sector avg: -2.5%), gross margins of 25.0% (sector avg: 42.5%), net margins of -276.8% (sector avg: -0.2%). Low quality scores are often associated with businesses in turnaround mode, early-stage growth, or structurally challenged industries.
With a value score of 43/100, LNZA appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 7.00x, an EV/EBITDA of 3.81x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
LanzaTech Global, Inc.'s investment score of 29/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -46.6% vs. a sector average of 5.9% and a return on assets of -107.1% (sector: -0.1%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
LNZA demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 54/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at -46.6% year-over-year, while a beta of -12.02 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
LNZA's stability score of 32/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of -12.02. Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
The short interest score of 54/100 for LNZA suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include micro-cap liquidity risk. With a $57M market cap (micro-cap), LanzaTech Global, Inc. may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
LanzaTech Global, Inc. is a micro-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #3973 of 7,333 overall (46th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -696.1% trailing the -2.5% sector median and operating margins of -295.6% below the 1.3% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While LNZA currently exhibits a AVOID profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Quality (16) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 67% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 27968% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 41% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) as Avoid with a composite score of 36.4/100 at a current price of $8.93. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (54th percentile) and value (43th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (16th percentile) and investment (29th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (18/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
LanzaTech Global, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 36.4/100 places it at rank #3973 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $57M in market capitalization, LanzaTech Global, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue contraction of -47% combined with momentum at the 54th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 25% (-17.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -296% (-296.9pp vs sector) and net margins of -276.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -1106%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $8.93, LanzaTech Global, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 43/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 7.0x (a 69% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 3.8x (discounted to peers), P/S of 2.7x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.
The stock may offer contrarian value if near-term headwinds prove transitory — the current weakness in factor scores may reverse if business fundamentals stabilize.
The Avoid rating (composite 36.4/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Revenue decline of -47% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
Thin net margins of -276.8% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
Below-average quality (16th percentile) raises durability concerns about the fundamental profile and increases the risk of negative earnings surprises.
We assign a High uncertainty rating to LanzaTech Global, Inc.. Key risk factors include current negative profitability (net margin -276.8%), below-average price stability (32th percentile), weak quality scores (16th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: current negative profitability (net margin -276.8%); below-average price stability (32th percentile); weak quality scores (16th percentile); low beta of -12.02 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 32th percentile and quality factor at the 16th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.
We rate LanzaTech Global, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-696.1%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -107.1%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — LanzaTech Global, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, LanzaTech Global, Inc. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 36.4/100 (rank #3973 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (18/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 35/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on LanzaTech Global, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign LanzaTech Global, Inc. a meaningful economic moat, scoring 18/100 on our composite assessment. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, reinvestment efficiency, reached only 7/20.
The strongest moat sources are reinvestment efficiency (7/20) and margin superiority (4/20). Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 149.7%. GM 25% vs sector 43%, OM -296% vs sector 1%. These pillars form the core of LanzaTech Global, Inc.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include growth durability (1.8/20) and economic value creation (2.5/20). Rev growth -47%, 4yr history. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect LanzaTech Global, Inc.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include declining revenues (-47%) that pressure the earnings outlook. The margin cascade from 25% gross to -296% operating to -276.8% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality raises some durability concerns, with the quality factor at the 16th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 25%, operating margins of -296%, net margins of -276.8%. Return metrics include ROE of -696.1% and ROA of -107.1%. Relative to the Manufacturing sector, gross margins are 17.5 percentage points below the sector median of 43%, and ROE of -696.1% compares to a sector median of -2.5%.
The balance sheet reflects revenue growth of -47%. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Analysts have significantly cut their revenue estimates for LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) by 23% for 2025, now projecting $136 million, a substantial increase from previous year but a notable reduction from prior forecasts. Alongside this, loss per share predictions have increased to $0.32. This downgrade has also led to an 11% reduction in the consensus price target to $4.19, reflecting concerns about the company's financial outlook.
LanzaTech Global, Inc. is reviewing a non-binding acquisition proposal from Carbon Direct Capital Management at $0.02 per share, significantly below its trading price. The company's stock has dropped 93% over the past year, and analysts have revised earnings downward, with profitability not expected this year. LanzaTech is also addressing a potential Nasdaq delisting and has restructured financing with Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
Retail investors are the largest shareholder group in LanzaTech Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:LNZA), holding 30% ownership. The company's market cap surged by US$55 million recently after a 9.4% stock gain, benefiting these individual investors. Other significant shareholders include institutional investors, private equity firms (24%), and insiders who collectively hold 18%.
LanzaTech Global, Inc. announced a 1-for-100 reverse stock split of its common stock, effective August 18, 2025, to regain compliance with Nasdaq's minimum bid price requirement. The company also enacted a par value change and adjusted authorized shares. Trading on a post-split basis under symbol "LNZA" will begin August 19, 2025, with fractional shares rounded up.
LanzaTech Global (LNZA) announced the voluntary resignation of independent director Jill Frizzley from its Board of Directors, effective January 31, 2026. The company stated that her departure was not due to any disagreement, indicating a routine change. LanzaTech Global operates in industrial biotechnology, converting waste carbon emissions into useful products, and currently has a "Neutral" rating from Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, citing weak financial performance despite strategic positioning.