HYMC

We rate HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP (HYMC) as a Reduce with a composite score of 45.8/100 at a current price of $46.80. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (99th percentile) and investment (40th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (15th percentile) and value (26th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (16/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 45.8/100 places it at rank #2671 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $243M in market capitalization, HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP is a small-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Momentum indicators (99th percentile) are constructive regarding the near-term price trend. Revenue growth data is unavailable, limiting our ability to confirm whether momentum is fundamentally supported.

Margin data is not available for HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP, which limits our assessment of the company's cost structure and operating efficiency. We rely on factor-based signals to infer business quality in the absence of detailed margin data.

At a current price of $46.80, HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 26/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at P/B of 71.8x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP. Key risk factors include significant leverage (283% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (28th percentile), weak quality scores (15th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (283% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (28th percentile); weak quality scores (15th percentile); low beta of 0.66 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 28th percentile and quality factor at the 15th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-99.2%), elevated leverage (283% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA -20.4%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 45.8/100 (rank #2671 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (16/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 42/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on HYCROFT MINING HOLDING CORP at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.