HSIC

We rate HENRY SCHEIN INC (HSIC) as a Hold with a composite score of 50.8/100 at a current price of $83.33. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (84th percentile) and momentum (54th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (37th percentile) and quality (42th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (37/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

HENRY SCHEIN INC holds a lower-quartile position (#41 of 50) within the Wholesale Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 50.8/100 places it at rank #1893 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $8.0B in market capitalization, HENRY SCHEIN INC is a mid-cap player in the Wholesale Trade space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 6%, though momentum at the 54th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 31% (+8.8pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 5% (+1.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 3.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 10%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $83.33, HENRY SCHEIN INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 52/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 22.6x (roughly in line with the sector median of 19.1x), EV/EBITDA of 10.3x (at a premium), P/B of 2.3x, P/S of 0.7x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to HENRY SCHEIN INC. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (154% debt-to-equity) and low beta of 0.59 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (154% debt-to-equity); low beta of 0.59 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets; the combination of leverage (154% D/E) and thin margins (3.2% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 84th percentile and quality factor at the 42th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (84th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate HENRY SCHEIN INC's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (154% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — HENRY SCHEIN INC significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, HENRY SCHEIN INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 50.8/100 (rank #1893 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (37/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 54/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on HENRY SCHEIN INC. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.