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Relative valuation derived from Materials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 34.4GRADE D
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
-11.0%
Sector: 3.3%
Dividend Analysis audit
No Dividend
This company does not currently pay a dividend.
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 41.9/100, ranked #467 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 34/100, Value 34/100, Momentum 76/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does Green Plains Inc. Do?
Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership. The Ethanol Production segment produces and sells ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil. The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment engages in the grain procurement, handling, and storage activities; and commodity marketing business, which purchases, markets, sells, and distributes ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil, as well as grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. This segment also provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The Partnership segment offers fuel storage and transportation services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 29 ethanol storage facilities; 4 fuel terminal facilities; and a fleet of approximately 2,300 leased railcars. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) is classified as a small-cap stock in the Materials sector, specifically within the Chemicals industry. The company is led by CEO Todd A. Becker and employs approximately 900 people, headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. With a market capitalization of $1.1B, GPRE is one of the notable companies in the Materials sector.
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, Green Plains Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 41.9/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.GPRE ranks #467 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Materials sector, Green Plains Inc. ranks #27 of 284 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Materials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
GPRE Stock Price and 52-Week Range
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) currently trades at $15.23. The stock gained $0.02 (0.1%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for GPRE is $16.80, which means the stock is currently trading -9.3% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $3.14, putting the stock 385.0% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 760K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is GPRE Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) carries a value factor score of 34/100 in the Blank Capital model, signaling premium valuation that prices in significant future growth. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 13.13x, compared to the Materials sector average of 26.50x — a discount of 50%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.41x, versus the sector average of 2.83x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.47x, compared to 0.74x for the average Materials stock. On an enterprise value basis, GPRE trades at 14.59x EV/EBITDA, versus 6.01x for the sector.
At current multiples, Green Plains Inc. trades at a premium to most Materials peers. This elevated valuation may be justified if the company can sustain above-average growth rates and profitability, but it also creates downside risk if earnings disappoint expectations.
Green Plains Inc. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) earns a quality factor score of 34/100, signaling below-average profitability metrics relative to the broader market. The return on equity (ROE) is -11.0%, compared to the Materials sector average of 3.3%, which is below typical expectations for high-quality companies. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at -5.4% versus the sector average of 0.6%.
On a margin basis, Green Plains Inc. reports gross margins of 7.5%, compared to 29.8% for the sector. The operating margin is -0.1% (sector: 6.0%). Net profit margin stands at -3.9%, versus 3.0% for the average Materials stock. Revenue growth is running at -17.8% on a trailing basis, compared to 1.8% for the sector. Profitability is below benchmark levels, which may reflect industry headwinds, elevated reinvestment, or structural challenges.
GPRE Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
Green Plains Inc. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 49.0%, compared to the Materials sector average of 41.0%. The low leverage indicates a conservative balance sheet with significant financial flexibility. The current ratio is 1.79x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $374M. Cash and equivalents stand at $136M.
GPRE has a beta of 1.42, meaning it is more volatile than the broader market — a $10,000 investment in GPRE would be expected to move 41.8% more than the S&P 500 on any given day. The stability factor score for Green Plains Inc. is 34/100, suggesting elevated price swings that may be unsuitable for conservative portfolios.
Green Plains Inc. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, Green Plains Inc. reported revenue of $2.32B and earnings per share (EPS) of $-1.80. Net income for the quarter was $-85M. Gross margin was 7.5%. Operating income came in at $-702,000.
In FY 2025, Green Plains Inc. reported revenue of $2.09B and earnings per share (EPS) of $-1.80. Net income for the quarter was $-121M. Gross margin was 6.6%. Revenue grew -14.9% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $-67M.
In Q3 2025, Green Plains Inc. reported revenue of $508M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17. Net income for the quarter was $11M. Gross margin was 10.3%. Revenue grew -22.8% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $34M.
In Q2 2025, Green Plains Inc. reported revenue of $553M and earnings per share (EPS) of $-1.09. Net income for the quarter was $-72M. Gross margin was 7.5%. Revenue grew -10.7% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $-28M.
Over the past 8 quarters, Green Plains Inc. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $619M to $2.32B. Investors analyzing GPRE stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
GPRE Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among smaller companies in the Chemicals industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Materials dividend stocks may want to explore other Materials stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.
GPRE Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) has a momentum factor score of 76/100, indicating strong price momentum with the stock outperforming the majority of the market over recent periods. Stocks with high momentum scores have historically tended to continue their outperformance in the near term. The investment factor score is 37/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 4/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
GPRE vs Competitors — Materials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing GPRE against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full GPRE vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how Green Plains Inc. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
GPRE Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy GPRE? — Investment Thesis Summary
Green Plains Inc. presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The quality score of 34/100 flags below-average profitability. The value score of 34/100 indicates premium valuation. Price momentum is positive at 76/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. High volatility (stability score 34/100) increases portfolio risk.
In summary, Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 41.9/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on GPRE stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on Green Plains Inc. (GPRE). The company's strategic shift towards higher-value products like ultra-high protein and corn oil, while promising, is still in its early stages and faces execution risks. Furthermore, the volatile nature of the ethanol industry, coupled with Green Plains' inconsistent profitability and negative margins, warrants caution despite its recent momentum and relatively low valuation multiples.
While Green Plains has made strides in diversifying its revenue streams and improving operational efficiency, the company's historical financial performance and the inherent cyclicality of the ethanol market present significant challenges. The Hold rating reflects a balanced view of the company's potential upside and the considerable risks associated with its business model and financial position. Investors should closely monitor the company's progress in executing its strategic initiatives and navigating the evolving regulatory landscape of the renewable fuels industry.
Business Strategy & Overview
Green Plains Inc. operates as a diversified biorefining company, primarily focused on the production and marketing of ethanol. The company's core business involves converting corn into ethanol, a renewable fuel source, along with valuable co-products such as distiller grains, ultra-high protein, and corn oil. These co-products are sold into the animal feed, food, and industrial markets, contributing to the company's overall revenue stream. Green Plains operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership. The Ethanol Production segment is the primary revenue driver, while the Agribusiness and Energy Services segment focuses on grain procurement, commodity marketing, and related services. The Partnership segment provides fuel storage and transportation services.
Green Plains has been actively pursuing a strategy of diversification and value-added product development to reduce its reliance on ethanol production and enhance its profitability. This strategy involves investing in technologies and infrastructure to produce higher-value products, such as ultra-high protein feed ingredients and advanced biofuels. The company aims to capture a larger share of the value chain by expanding its product portfolio and targeting higher-margin markets. This strategic shift is intended to mitigate the impact of fluctuating ethanol prices and improve the company's long-term financial performance.
The company's strategic positioning within the renewable fuels industry is influenced by government regulations, environmental policies, and consumer demand for alternative fuels. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates the blending of biofuels into the nation's fuel supply, creating a demand for ethanol. However, the RFS is subject to political and regulatory changes, which can significantly impact the ethanol market. Green Plains must navigate these regulatory uncertainties and adapt its business strategy to remain competitive in the evolving landscape.
Green Plains' product pipeline includes ongoing research and development efforts to improve ethanol production efficiency, develop new co-products, and explore advanced biofuel technologies. The company is investing in innovation to enhance its competitive advantage and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the renewable fuels market. However, the success of these initiatives depends on technological advancements, market acceptance, and the company's ability to effectively commercialize its innovations.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
-17.8%
Sector: 1.8%
-1119% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Green Plains' economic moat is assessed as None. The ethanol production industry is characterized by intense competition and limited differentiation, making it difficult for any single company to establish a sustainable competitive advantage. Ethanol is essentially a commodity product, and producers primarily compete on price and production efficiency. This lack of product differentiation weakens the potential for brand loyalty or pricing power.
While Green Plains has been investing in higher-value co-products like ultra-high protein and corn oil, these initiatives are still in their early stages and have not yet translated into a significant competitive advantage. The company faces competition from other ethanol producers and agricultural companies that are also pursuing similar diversification strategies. The success of these initiatives depends on the company's ability to effectively market and distribute its products, as well as its ability to maintain a cost advantage over its competitors.
The ethanol industry is also subject to regulatory risks, which can impact the competitive landscape. Changes in government mandates, tax incentives, or trade policies can significantly affect the demand for ethanol and the profitability of ethanol producers. These regulatory uncertainties make it difficult for companies to establish a long-term competitive advantage.
Green Plains' lack of a significant economic moat is reflected in its inconsistent profitability and negative margins. The company's financial performance is highly sensitive to fluctuations in ethanol prices and corn costs, which are influenced by factors beyond its control. This volatility makes it challenging for the company to generate consistent returns and build a sustainable competitive advantage.
The company's efforts to diversify into higher-value products could potentially strengthen its competitive position over time. However, these initiatives require significant investments and face execution risks. Until Green Plains can demonstrate a consistent track record of profitability and value creation from its diversification efforts, its economic moat will remain weak.
Financial Health & Profitability
Green Plains' financial health presents a mixed picture. The company's revenue has been volatile, with a significant decrease of -17.8% in the most recent TTM period, compared to a sector average of 1.5%. This decline in revenue reflects the challenges facing the ethanol industry, including fluctuating prices and competitive pressures. The company's net income has also been consistently negative, with a TTM net loss of $-121.00 million. This negative profitability is a concern and highlights the company's struggles to generate consistent earnings.
The company's gross margin of 7.5% and operating margin of -0.1% are significantly below the sector averages of 30.2% and 6.0%, respectively. These low margins indicate that Green Plains is facing challenges in controlling its costs and generating sufficient profits from its operations. The company's ROE of -11.0% is also significantly below the sector average of 2.7%, reflecting its poor profitability and inefficient use of equity.
On a positive note, Green Plains has a current ratio of 1.79, indicating that it has sufficient liquid assets to cover its short-term liabilities. The company also generated a free cash flow of $350.15 million in the TTM period, which is a positive sign. However, the company's total debt of $374.49 million is relatively high compared to its total cash of $135.90 million. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 49.00 is slightly above the sector average of 40.00, indicating a moderate level of leverage.
Analyzing the quarterly financial history reveals a pattern of inconsistent profitability. While the company reported a positive net income in Q3 FY2025 and Q3 FY2024, it experienced net losses in the other quarters. This volatility in earnings highlights the challenges facing the company and the inherent cyclicality of the ethanol industry. The company's gross margin and operating margin have also fluctuated significantly from quarter to quarter, reflecting the impact of changing ethanol prices and corn costs.
Overall, Green Plains' financial health is weak, characterized by inconsistent profitability, negative margins, and a relatively high level of debt. While the company has a strong current ratio and generated positive free cash flow, its financial performance needs to improve significantly to justify a more positive outlook. Investors should closely monitor the company's progress in improving its profitability and reducing its debt burden.
Valuation Assessment
Green Plains' valuation presents a mixed picture. The company's P/E ratio of 13.1x appears attractive compared to the sector average of 26.1x. However, this multiple is based on earnings that are not consistent and have been negative recently. Therefore, the P/E ratio may not be a reliable indicator of value. The company's EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.7x is significantly higher than the sector average of 5.2x, suggesting that the company may be overvalued relative to its earnings potential.
Given the company's negative net income and inconsistent profitability, traditional valuation metrics such as P/E and ROE may not be the most appropriate measures of value. A more relevant metric may be the company's free cash flow yield, which is calculated by dividing free cash flow by market capitalization. However, the sustainability of the current free cash flow generation is questionable given the historical volatility of the business.
Compared to its historical valuation, Green Plains' current multiples are within a reasonable range. However, the company's historical performance has been characterized by volatility and inconsistent profitability, making it difficult to establish a reliable baseline for valuation. The company's strategic shift towards higher-value products could potentially justify a higher valuation if it is successful in improving profitability and generating consistent earnings.
Considering the company's financial health and the risks associated with its business model, Green Plains' valuation appears to be fair. The company's relatively low P/E ratio may be offset by its high EV/EBITDA multiple and its inconsistent profitability. Investors should carefully consider the company's growth prospects and the risks associated with its business before making an investment decision.
The Momentum score of 74 suggests positive investor sentiment, but this may be driven by short-term factors rather than long-term fundamentals. The Value score of 33 indicates that the stock is not particularly cheap, and the Quality score of 35 reflects the company's weak profitability and returns. Overall, the valuation assessment suggests that Green Plains is fairly valued, but not significantly undervalued.
Risk & Uncertainty
Green Plains faces several specific, idiosyncratic risks that could negatively impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is the volatility of ethanol prices and corn costs. Ethanol prices are influenced by factors such as crude oil prices, government mandates, and consumer demand, while corn costs are affected by weather conditions, agricultural policies, and global supply and demand dynamics. Fluctuations in these prices can significantly impact the company's profitability and cash flow.
Another key risk is regulatory uncertainty. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates the blending of biofuels into the nation's fuel supply, creating a demand for ethanol. However, the RFS is subject to political and regulatory changes, which can significantly impact the ethanol market. Changes in government mandates, tax incentives, or trade policies could reduce the demand for ethanol and negatively affect Green Plains' business.
Competition is also a significant risk. The ethanol production industry is characterized by intense competition, with numerous producers vying for market share. Green Plains faces competition from both large, established ethanol producers and smaller, regional players. The company must compete on price, production efficiency, and product differentiation to maintain its market position.
The company's debt burden also poses a risk. Green Plains has a relatively high level of debt compared to its cash reserves, which could limit its financial flexibility and increase its vulnerability to economic downturns. The company's ability to service its debt depends on its ability to generate sufficient cash flow from its operations. A decline in ethanol prices or an increase in corn costs could strain the company's financial resources and make it difficult to meet its debt obligations.
Finally, the company's strategic shift towards higher-value products involves execution risks. The success of these initiatives depends on the company's ability to effectively market and distribute its products, as well as its ability to maintain a cost advantage over its competitors. Failure to successfully execute its diversification strategy could negatively impact the company's financial performance.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWGreen Plains' strategic shift towards higher-value products like ultra-high protein will significantly improve margins and reduce reliance on volatile ethanol prices.
BULL VIEWThe company's strong free cash flow generation provides ample resources for debt reduction and strategic investments in growth initiatives.
BULL VIEWGovernment support for renewable fuels, including potential increases in RFS mandates, will drive increased demand for ethanol and benefit Green Plains.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWGreen Plains' inconsistent profitability and negative margins demonstrate a fundamental weakness in its business model and inability to generate sustainable returns.
BEAR VIEWThe company's high debt burden and exposure to volatile ethanol prices create significant financial risks that could threaten its long-term viability.
BEAR VIEWCompetition in the ethanol industry is intense, limiting Green Plains' ability to differentiate its products and achieve a sustainable competitive advantage.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score GPRE and 4,400+ other equities.
Green Plains Inc. exhibits a 1% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a balanced risk/reward profile based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
-5.4%
Sector: 0.6%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
7.5%
Sector: 29.8%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
-0.1%
Sector: 6.0%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
-3.9%
Sector: 3.0%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
