FIZZ

We rate NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP (FIZZ) as a Hold with a composite score of 58.4/100 at a current price of $37.54. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (92th percentile) and quality (81th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (35th percentile) and investment (36th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (53/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 58.4/100 places it at rank #847 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $3.2B in market capitalization, NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -12% combined with momentum at the 35th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 38% (-4.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 20% (+18.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 15.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 42%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $37.54, NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 75/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 18.5x (roughly in line with the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 14.6x (at a premium), P/B of 6.3x, P/S of 2.9x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.12, conservative leverage (36% D/E), and a stability factor in the 92th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.12 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 92th percentile and quality factor at the 81th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (92th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP's capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 34.0%, disciplined leverage (36% D/E), best-in-class net margins of 15.9%. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. We note that the combination of 25.0% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 58.4/100 (rank #847 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (53/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 64/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.