COKE

We rate Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) as a Hold with a composite score of 56.7/100 at a current price of $195.20. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (77th percentile) and quality (76th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (37th percentile) and investment (42th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (61/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 56.7/100 places it at rank #1062 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $10.0B market capitalization, Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 5%, though momentum at the 37th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 40% (-2.8pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 13% (+11.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 7.7%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 19%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $195.20, Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 77/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 22.1x (roughly in line with the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 15.2x (at a premium), P/B of 6.1x, P/S of 1.7x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (109% debt-to-equity) and low beta of -0.18 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (109% debt-to-equity); low beta of -0.18 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 53th percentile and quality factor at the 76th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our medium uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 44.1%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 109%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 0.87% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 56.7/100 (rank #1062 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (61/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 57/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.