CE

We rate Celanese Corp (CE) as a Reduce with a composite score of 45.8/100 at a current price of $53.11. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (44th percentile) and stability (43th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (33th percentile) and investment (33th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (18/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Celanese Corp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 45.8/100 places it at rank #2664 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $4.6B in market capitalization, Celanese Corp is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -9% combined with momentum at the 44th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 22% (-21.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -7% (-8.1pp vs sector) and net margins of -11.0%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -51%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $53.11, Celanese Corp is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 41/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at P/B of 1.4x, P/S of 0.6x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to Celanese Corp. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.88), significant leverage (292% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -11.0%). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.88); significant leverage (292% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -11.0%); weak quality scores (33th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 43th percentile and quality factor at the 33th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our very high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate Celanese Corp's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-23.9%), elevated leverage (292% D/E), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -4.7%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Celanese Corp significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Celanese Corp receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 45.8/100 (rank #2664 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (18/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 39/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Celanese Corp at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.