CCJ

We rate CAMECO CORP (CCJ) as a Hold with a composite score of 63.6/100 at a current price of $119.01. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (73th percentile) and quality (70th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (50/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

CAMECO CORP holds a lower-quartile position (#41 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 63.6/100 places it at rank #379 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $22.3B market capitalization, CAMECO CORP operates at meaningful scale within the Mining sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 7% and favorable momentum (73th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 25% (-18.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 17% (+5.3pp vs sector) and net margins of 5.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 22%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $119.01, CAMECO CORP is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 52/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 47.3x (at a premium), P/B of 12.0x, P/S of 6.0x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to CAMECO CORP. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 1.15, conservative leverage (20% D/E), and a stability factor in the 55th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 55th percentile with quality at the 70th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (20% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate CAMECO CORP's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 10.8%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 20%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; CAMECO CORP falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 0.22% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, CAMECO CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 63.6/100 (rank #379 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (50/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 62/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on CAMECO CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.