CCEP

We rate COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc (CCEP) as a Buy with a composite score of 70.4/100 at a current price of $107.74. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #85 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (95th percentile) and value (89th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (43/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc holds a lower-quartile position (#44 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 70.4/100 places it at rank #85 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $35.3B market capitalization, COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 5%, though momentum at the 53th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 35% (-7.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 9% (+8.1pp vs sector) and net margins of 7.0%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 20%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $107.74, COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 89/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 33.7x (a 52% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 5.2x (discounted to peers), P/B of 5.4x, P/S of 0.6x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (133% debt-to-equity) and low beta of 0.16 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (133% debt-to-equity); low beta of 0.16 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 95th percentile and quality factor at the 81th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (95th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 2.72% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 68.0%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 133%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 2.72% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 70.4/100 (rank #85 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (43/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 77/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS plc. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and standard capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.