BGS

We rate B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS) as a Hold with a composite score of 52.5/100 at a current price of $5.28. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (68th percentile) and value (65th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (32th percentile) and momentum (39th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (24/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

B&G Foods, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 52.5/100 places it at rank #1610 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $339M in market capitalization, B&G Foods, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 3%, though momentum at the 39th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 22% (-21.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 4% (+2.6pp vs sector) and net margins of -3.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -15%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $5.28, B&G Foods, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 65/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 20.7x (at a premium), P/B of 0.9x, P/S of 0.2x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to B&G Foods, Inc.. Key risk factors include significant leverage (430% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -3.3%), low beta of 0.15 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (430% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -3.3%); low beta of 0.15 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets; the combination of leverage (430% D/E) and thin margins (-3.3% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 68th percentile and quality factor at the 48th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (68th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 17.95% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate B&G Foods, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-12.3%), elevated leverage (430% D/E), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -2.0%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — B&G Foods, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, B&G Foods, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.5/100 (rank #1610 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (24/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 51/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on B&G Foods, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.