B

We rate BARRICK GOLD CORP (B) as a Buy with a composite score of 68.6/100 at a current price of $49.78. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #136 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (90th percentile) and momentum (75th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (32th percentile) and quality (73th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (54/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

BARRICK GOLD CORP holds an above-average position (#14 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 68.6/100 places it at rank #136 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $27.1B market capitalization, BARRICK GOLD CORP operates at meaningful scale within the Mining sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 14% and favorable momentum (75th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 31% (-11.8pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 6% (-6.7pp vs sector) and net margins of -4.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -15%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $49.78, BARRICK GOLD CORP appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 90/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 906.3x (at a premium), P/B of 3.3x, P/S of 51.5x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to BARRICK GOLD CORP. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: current negative profitability (net margin -4.6%) and low beta of 0.50 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: current negative profitability (net margin -4.6%); low beta of 0.50 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 73th percentile and quality factor at the 73th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (19% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (73th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 2.59% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate BARRICK GOLD CORP's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-0.3%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -0.1%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — BARRICK GOLD CORP significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, BARRICK GOLD CORP receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 68.6/100 (rank #136 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (54/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 69/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on BARRICK GOLD CORP. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and poor capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.