AVO

We rate Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO) as a Hold with a composite score of 63.4/100 at a current price of $14.46. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (78th percentile) and value (76th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (31th percentile) and stability (59th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (65/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Mission Produce, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#3 of 17) within the Agriculture, Forestry, And Fishing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 63.4/100 places it at rank #389 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $814M in market capitalization, Mission Produce, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Agriculture, Forestry, And Fishing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 20% and momentum in the 63th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 31th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 10% (-8.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 4% (+1.7pp vs sector) and net margins of 2.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 25%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $14.46, Mission Produce, Inc. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 76/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 28.7x (a 160% premium to the sector median of 11.1x), EV/EBITDA of 20.8x (at a premium), P/B of 1.7x, P/S of 0.7x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to Mission Produce, Inc.. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.36, conservative leverage (15% D/E), and a stability factor in the 59th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.36 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 59th percentile and quality factor at the 78th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (15% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Mission Produce, Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 5.8%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 15%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Mission Produce, Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Mission Produce, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 63.4/100 (rank #389 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (65/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 61/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Mission Produce, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.