AGRO

We rate Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) as a Hold with a composite score of 55.9/100 at a current price of $9.15. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in investment (71th percentile) and stability (56th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a No Moat rating (36/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Adecoagro S.A. holds an above-average position (#6 of 17) within the Agriculture, Forestry, And Fishing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 55.9/100 places it at rank #1151 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $1000M in market capitalization, Adecoagro S.A. is a small-cap player in the Agriculture, Forestry, And Fishing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 3%, though momentum at the 44th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 9% (-8.8pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 2% (0.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 6.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 65%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $9.15, Adecoagro S.A. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 50/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 9.9x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.1x), EV/EBITDA of 8.3x (at a premium), P/B of 0.9x, P/S of 0.2x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to Adecoagro S.A.. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.24, conservative leverage (0% D/E), and a stability factor in the 56th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.24 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 56th percentile and quality factor at the 51th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (0% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; a 3.63% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Adecoagro S.A.'s capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 26.9%, disciplined leverage (0% D/E), a 3.63% dividend yield. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — Adecoagro S.A. meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 3.63% dividend yield, and the combination of 11.8% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, Adecoagro S.A. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 55.9/100 (rank #1151 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (36/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 54/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Adecoagro S.A.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.