AGI

We rate ALAMOS GOLD INC (AGI) as a Buy with a composite score of 65.5/100 at a current price of $50.59. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #269 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (74th percentile) and stability (70th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (30th percentile) and value (67th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (61/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

ALAMOS GOLD INC holds an above-average position (#25 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 65.5/100 places it at rank #269 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $7.3B in market capitalization, ALAMOS GOLD INC is a mid-cap player in the Mining space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 32% and momentum in the 68th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 30th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 44% (+1.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 42% (+29.5pp vs sector) and net margins of 21.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 48%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $50.59, ALAMOS GOLD INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 67/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 71.0x (a 417% premium to the sector median of 13.7x), EV/EBITDA of 6.9x (at a premium), P/B of 5.6x, P/S of 3.7x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to ALAMOS GOLD INC. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.37, conservative leverage (8% D/E), and a stability factor in the 70th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.37 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets; elevated valuation multiple (P/E 71.0x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 70th percentile and quality factor at the 74th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 44% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (8% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (70th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate ALAMOS GOLD INC's capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 31.7%, disciplined leverage (8% D/E), best-in-class net margins of 21.1%. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — ALAMOS GOLD INC meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 0.54% dividend yield, and the combination of 21.3% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, ALAMOS GOLD INC receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 65.5/100 (rank #269 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (61/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 62/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on ALAMOS GOLD INC. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, low uncertainty, and exemplary capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.