AES

We rate AES CORP (AES) as a Hold with a composite score of 51.8/100 at a current price of $16.34. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (67th percentile) and value (56th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (27th percentile) and investment (32th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (29/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

AES CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Construction sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 51.8/100 places it at rank #1710 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $9.3B in market capitalization, AES CORP is a mid-cap player in the Construction space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 14% and favorable momentum (67th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 19% (-5.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 5% (-2.2pp vs sector) and net margins of 3.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 19%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $16.34, AES CORP is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 56/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 23.1x (a 21% premium to the sector median of 19.1x), EV/EBITDA of 5.8x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.4x, P/S of 0.9x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to AES CORP. Key risk factors include significant leverage (479% debt-to-equity), weak quality scores (27th percentile), the combination of leverage (479% D/E) and thin margins (3.6% net) amplifies downside risk. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (479% debt-to-equity); weak quality scores (27th percentile); the combination of leverage (479% D/E) and thin margins (3.6% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 46th percentile and quality factor at the 27th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 5.39% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate AES CORP's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (479% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 1.0%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — AES CORP significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, AES CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.8/100 (rank #1710 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (29/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 46/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on AES CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.