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Relative to Consumer Discretionary Sector Median (N=438)
Metric
MUSA
Benchmark
P/E Ratio
19.1x
-24%
EV/EBITDA
9.2x
+87%
Price / Book
14.6x
Implied Value Audit
OVERVALUED
Implied Fair Value (vs Sector)
-58.7%
$203.18Spot: $491.99
Spot
Implied
-50% Delta+50% Delta
Relative valuation derived from Consumer Discretionary sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
76.6%
Sector: 6.0%
Dividend Analysis audit
GROWTH
0.52%
Trailing Yield
$0.52
Per $100 Invested
Modest dividend — capital prioritized for reinvestment.
Est. Payout Ratio
10%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 51.1/100, ranked #215 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 69/100, Momentum 49/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does Murphy USA Inc. Do?
Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas. Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) is classified as a mid-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, specifically within the Retail industry. The company is led by CEO R. Andrew Clyde and employs approximately 15,100 people, headquartered in Wilmington, Arkansas. With a market capitalization of $9.2B, MUSA is one of the notable companies in the Consumer Discretionary sector.
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, Murphy USA Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.1/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.MUSA ranks #215 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Consumer Discretionary sector, Murphy USA Inc. ranks #7 of 438 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Consumer Discretionary peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
MUSA Stock Price and 52-Week Range
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) currently trades at $491.99. The stock lost $1.24 (0.3%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for MUSA is $523.09, which means the stock is currently trading -5.9% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $345.23, putting the stock 42.5% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 10K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is MUSA Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) carries a value factor score of 69/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 19.09x, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 25.19x — a discount of 24%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 14.63x, versus the sector average of 1.98x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.46x, compared to 0.28x for the average Consumer Discretionary stock. On an enterprise value basis, MUSA trades at 9.15x EV/EBITDA, versus 4.88x for the sector.
Overall, MUSA's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
Murphy USA Inc. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 76.6%, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 6.0%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 10.1% versus the sector average of 2.5%.
On a margin basis, Murphy USA Inc. reports gross margins of 12.0%, compared to 36.9% for the sector. The operating margin is 3.6% (sector: 3.8%). Net profit margin stands at 2.4%, versus 2.1% for the average Consumer Discretionary stock. Revenue growth is running at -6.3% on a trailing basis, compared to 3.3% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
MUSA Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
Murphy USA Inc. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 658.0%, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 91.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 0.80x, which may signal near-term liquidity tightness. Total debt on the balance sheet is $2.24B. Cash and equivalents stand at $43M.
MUSA has a beta of 0.01, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for Murphy USA Inc. is 74/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
Murphy USA Inc. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, Murphy USA Inc. reported revenue of $19.88B and earnings per share (EPS) of $24.38. Net income for the quarter was $478M. Gross margin was 12.0%. Operating income came in at $731M.
In FY 2025, Murphy USA Inc. reported revenue of $19.38B and earnings per share (EPS) of $24.38. Net income for the quarter was $471M. Revenue grew -4.2% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $719M.
In Q3 2025, Murphy USA Inc. reported revenue of $5.11B and earnings per share (EPS) of $6.83. Net income for the quarter was $130M. Revenue grew -2.5% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $202M.
In Q2 2025, Murphy USA Inc. reported revenue of $5.00B and earnings per share (EPS) of $7.44. Net income for the quarter was $146M. Revenue grew -8.2% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $219M.
Over the past 8 quarters, Murphy USA Inc. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $5.45B to $19.88B. Investors analyzing MUSA stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
MUSA Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) currently pays a dividend yield of 0.5%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in MUSA stock would generate approximately $$52.00 in annual dividend income.
MUSA Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a momentum factor score of 49/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 35/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 26/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
MUSA vs Competitors — Consumer Discretionary Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing MUSA against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full MUSA vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how Murphy USA Inc. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
MUSA Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy MUSA? — Investment Thesis Summary
Murphy USA Inc. presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The value score of 69/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 74/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 51.1/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on MUSA stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on Murphy USA (MUSA), driven by a balanced assessment of its strong value proposition and inherent risks within the highly competitive and cyclical retail fuel industry. While the company exhibits attractive valuation multiples and a robust return on equity, its narrow margins, high debt levels, and reliance on fuel price volatility for profitability necessitate a cautious stance. The company's strategic focus on low-cost operations and share repurchases provides some support, but the lack of a significant economic moat and potential for disruption in the transportation sector limit upside potential.
The primary takeaway is that MUSA represents a value play with considerable operational and financial risks. Investors should carefully weigh the potential for short-term gains from fuel price fluctuations against the long-term challenges of maintaining profitability in a rapidly evolving energy landscape. The Hold rating reflects our view that the current share price adequately reflects the company's risk-reward profile, offering limited margin of safety for significant outperformance.
Business Strategy & Overview
Murphy USA operates as a high-volume, low-cost retailer of motor fuel and convenience merchandise. The company's core strategy revolves around maintaining a lean operational structure, focusing on high-traffic locations, and offering competitive fuel prices to attract customers. This strategy is primarily executed through its Murphy USA and Murphy Express store formats, often located adjacent to Walmart stores, leveraging the retailer's high customer traffic. The QuickChek brand, acquired in 2021, represents a diversification into a more traditional convenience store model with a stronger emphasis on prepared foods and proprietary offerings.
The company generates revenue primarily from fuel sales, with convenience merchandise contributing a smaller but increasingly important portion of overall profitability. Murphy USA's fuel procurement strategy involves purchasing fuel from various sources, including major oil companies and independent suppliers, aiming to secure the most favorable pricing. The company actively manages its fuel inventory and hedging positions to mitigate the impact of price volatility. A key element of their strategy is to maintain a cost advantage over competitors, allowing them to offer lower prices and drive higher sales volumes.
Murphy USA's strategic positioning within the retail fuel industry is characterized by its focus on value-conscious consumers. The company aims to provide a convenient and affordable fueling option, particularly for customers already visiting Walmart stores. This strategy has enabled Murphy USA to achieve significant market share in its operating regions. The company's expansion strategy involves opening new stores in underserved markets and selectively acquiring existing locations to further expand its footprint.
The company's capital allocation strategy prioritizes reinvestment in its store network, share repurchases, and strategic acquisitions. Murphy USA has consistently demonstrated a commitment to returning capital to shareholders through share repurchases, reflecting management's confidence in the company's long-term prospects. However, the company's relatively low investment score (35/100) suggests that its growth initiatives and capital allocation decisions may not be as effective as those of its peers.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
-6.3%
Sector: 3.3%
-292% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Murphy USA's economic moat is best characterized as None. The retail fuel industry is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for market share. While Murphy USA has established a strong brand presence and operational efficiency, these advantages are not sufficient to create a sustainable competitive advantage that protects its profitability from competitors.
The company's reliance on low prices to attract customers makes it vulnerable to price wars and fluctuations in fuel costs. Competitors can easily match Murphy USA's prices, eroding its market share and profitability. The lack of significant switching costs for consumers further weakens the company's competitive position. Customers can easily switch to alternative fuel retailers based on price, convenience, or loyalty programs.
Murphy USA does not possess significant intangible assets that would create a durable competitive advantage. While the company has built a recognizable brand, it is not differentiated enough to command premium pricing or generate strong customer loyalty. The company's cost advantages, while important, are not insurmountable. Competitors can implement similar operational efficiencies and procurement strategies to reduce their costs.
The absence of network effects further limits Murphy USA's ability to build a strong economic moat. The value of the company's retail network does not increase as more customers use its services. In contrast, companies with network effects, such as credit card networks or social media platforms, benefit from increased user adoption, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of growth and competitive advantage.
Efficient scale is also not a significant factor in Murphy USA's business. While the company benefits from economies of scale in its operations, these advantages are not sufficient to deter new entrants or prevent existing competitors from expanding their market share. The retail fuel industry is characterized by relatively low barriers to entry, allowing new players to enter the market and compete on price and convenience.
Financial Health & Profitability
Murphy USA's financial health presents a mixed picture. While the company has demonstrated strong profitability in recent years, its high debt levels and reliance on fuel price volatility raise concerns about its long-term financial stability. The company's revenue has fluctuated significantly over the past few years, reflecting the volatility of fuel prices. The revenue decreased from $21.53B in FY2023 to $19.38B in FY2025, indicating a potential slowdown in sales growth.
The company's net income has remained relatively stable, ranging from $470.60M to $556.80M over the past three fiscal years. However, the company's net margin is relatively low, at 2.4% in the latest fiscal year, indicating that it operates in a highly competitive industry with limited pricing power. The company's gross margin is also significantly lower than the sector average (12.0% vs. 36.9%), highlighting its focus on low-cost operations and high sales volumes.
Murphy USA's return on equity (ROE) is exceptionally high at 76.6%, significantly exceeding the sector average of 5.8%. This suggests that the company is effectively utilizing its equity to generate profits. However, the high ROE is partially driven by the company's high debt levels, which magnify both profits and losses. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 658.00, significantly higher than the sector average of 91.00, indicating a high degree of financial leverage.
The company's current ratio is 0.80, which is below 1.0, suggesting that it may have difficulty meeting its short-term obligations. The company's free cash flow is relatively low at $20.18M, indicating that it may need to rely on debt financing to fund its growth initiatives and share repurchases. The quarterly financial history reveals consistent profitability, but also highlights the sensitivity of earnings to fluctuations in revenue and operating margins. The operating margin has fluctuated between 1.9% and 4.4% in recent quarters, demonstrating the volatility of the company's earnings.
Valuation Assessment
Murphy USA's valuation metrics suggest that the stock is relatively undervalued compared to its peers in the consumer discretionary sector. The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 19.4x, significantly lower than the sector average of 28.0x. This indicates that investors are paying less for each dollar of earnings compared to other companies in the sector. However, the lower P/E ratio may reflect concerns about the company's growth prospects and financial leverage.
The company's enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 2.2x, also significantly lower than the sector average of 5.3x. This suggests that the company is undervalued based on its operating cash flow. However, the lower EV/EBITDA ratio may also reflect concerns about the company's high debt levels and the cyclical nature of the retail fuel industry.
The company's free cash flow yield is relatively low, reflecting its low free cash flow generation. This suggests that the company may not be able to generate significant cash flow to fund its growth initiatives and return capital to shareholders. The company's valuation is further complicated by the volatility of its earnings and the cyclical nature of the retail fuel industry. The company's earnings are highly sensitive to fluctuations in fuel prices and consumer spending, making it difficult to predict its future performance.
Overall, Murphy USA's valuation appears attractive based on its P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios. However, investors should carefully consider the company's high debt levels, low free cash flow generation, and the cyclical nature of its business before investing in the stock. The Hold rating reflects our view that the current share price adequately reflects the company's risk-reward profile, offering limited margin of safety for significant outperformance.
Risk & Uncertainty
Murphy USA faces several specific risks that could negatively impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is the volatility of fuel prices. Fluctuations in crude oil prices and refining margins can significantly impact the company's profitability. The company's hedging strategies may not fully mitigate the impact of price volatility, and unexpected price spikes could erode its margins.
Another key risk is the increasing competition in the retail fuel industry. The industry is characterized by numerous players, including major oil companies, independent retailers, and convenience store chains. The rise of electric vehicles and alternative transportation technologies poses a long-term threat to the demand for gasoline, potentially reducing the company's sales volumes and profitability. The company's ability to adapt to these changing market conditions will be crucial for its long-term success.
The company's high debt levels also pose a significant risk. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is significantly higher than the sector average, increasing its financial leverage and vulnerability to economic downturns. Rising interest rates could increase the company's borrowing costs and reduce its profitability. The company's ability to generate sufficient cash flow to service its debt obligations is critical for its financial stability.
Regulatory risks also pose a threat to Murphy USA's business. Changes in environmental regulations, fuel efficiency standards, and tax policies could increase the company's operating costs and reduce its profitability. The company's compliance with these regulations requires significant resources and expertise. Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical instability could also impact the company's ability to procure fuel and merchandise at competitive prices.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWMurphy USA's focus on low-cost operations and strategic locations near Walmart stores provides a sustainable competitive advantage, driving consistent profitability and market share gains.
BULL VIEWThe company's aggressive share repurchase program and commitment to returning capital to shareholders demonstrate management's confidence in the company's long-term prospects and create value for investors.
BULL VIEWThe current valuation multiples are significantly below sector averages, offering an attractive entry point for value-oriented investors seeking exposure to the resilient retail fuel industry.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWMurphy USA's reliance on fuel price volatility and lack of a significant economic moat make it vulnerable to competitive pressures and fluctuations in the energy market, limiting its long-term growth potential.
BEAR VIEWThe company's high debt levels and low free cash flow generation raise concerns about its financial stability and ability to fund future growth initiatives and shareholder returns.
BEAR VIEWThe increasing adoption of electric vehicles and alternative transportation technologies poses a significant long-term threat to the demand for gasoline, potentially eroding Murphy USA's core business and profitability.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score MUSA and 4,400+ other equities.
Murphy USA Inc. exhibits a 192% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
10.1%
Sector: 2.5%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
12.0%
Sector: 36.9%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
3.6%
Sector: 3.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
2.4%
Sector: 2.1%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield0.00%
Yield Delta—
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $52 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
