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Relative to Consumer Discretionary Sector Median (N=442)
Metric
CASY
Benchmark
P/E Ratio
43.1x
+76%
EV/EBITDA
3.6x
-27%
Price / Book
7.3x
Implied Value Audit
OVERVALUED
Implied Fair Value (vs Sector)
-31.2%
$507.56Spot: $738.17
Spot
Implied
-50% Delta+50% Delta
Relative valuation derived from Consumer Discretionary sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
16.9%
Sector: 6.2%
Dividend Analysis audit
GROWTH
0.42%
Trailing Yield
$0.42
Per $100 Invested
Modest dividend — capital prioritized for reinvestment.
Est. Payout Ratio
18%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) receives a "Buy" rating with a composite score of 57.3/100, ranked #89 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 68/100, Momentum 67/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC Do?
Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names. Its stores offer a selection of food, including freshly prepared foods, such as pizza, donuts, and sandwiches; tobacco, and nicotine products; health and beauty aids; automotive products; and other nonfood items. The company's stores also provide motor fuel for sale on a self-service basis; and gasoline and diesel fuel. In addition, its stores offer various products, include soft drinks, energy, water, sports drinks, juices, coffee, tea, and dairy products; beer, wine, and spirits; snacks, candy, packaged bakery, and other food items; ice, ice cream, meals, and appetizers; electronic accessories, housewares, and pet supplies; and lotto/lottery and prepaid cards. Further, the company operates two stores under the Tobacco City name primarily selling tobacco and nicotine products; one liquor store; and one grocery store. As of March 8, 2022, it operated 2,400 convenience stores in the United States. Casey's General Stores, Inc. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa. CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, specifically within the Retail industry. The company is led by CEO Darren M. Rebelez and employs approximately 42,500 people, headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa. With a market capitalization of $27.2B, CASY is one of the prominent companies in the Consumer Discretionary sector.
As of April 2026, CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 57.3/100 and 4 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.CASY ranks #89 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Consumer Discretionary sector, CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC ranks #2 of 442 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Consumer Discretionary peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
CASY Stock Price and 52-Week Range
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) currently trades at $738.17. The stock lost $20.59 (2.7%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for CASY is $696.66, which means the stock is currently trading 6.0% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $391.55, putting the stock 88.5% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 574K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is CASY Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) carries a value factor score of 68/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 43.12x, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 24.47x — a premium of 76%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 7.27x, versus the sector average of 1.99x. The price-to-sales ratio is 1.65x, compared to 0.27x for the average Consumer Discretionary stock. On an enterprise value basis, CASY trades at 3.56x EV/EBITDA, versus 4.91x for the sector.
Overall, CASY's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 16.9%, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 6.2%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 7.6% versus the sector average of 2.5%.
On a margin basis, CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC reports gross margins of 24.0%, compared to 36.9% for the sector. The operating margin is 44.4% (sector: 3.8%). Net profit margin stands at 3.8%, versus 2.1% for the average Consumer Discretionary stock. Revenue growth is running at 0.3% on a trailing basis, compared to 3.3% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
CASY Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC has a debt-to-equity ratio of 123.0%, compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector average of 89.0%. Leverage is within a manageable range for the industry, though investors should monitor debt trends over time. The current ratio is 1.04x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Cash and equivalents stand at $465M.
CASY has a beta of 0.41, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC is 87/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC reported revenue of $16.98B and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.51. Net income for the quarter was $650M. Gross margin was 24.0%. Operating income came in at $7.09B.
In Q3 2026, CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC reported revenue of $3.92B and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.51. Net income for the quarter was $130M. Operating income came in at $3.22B.
In Q3YTD 2026, CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC reported revenue of $12.99B. Net income for the quarter was $552M.
In Q3TTM 2026, CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC reported revenue of $16.98B. Net income for the quarter was $650M.
Over the past 8 quarters, CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $4.57B to $16.98B. Investors analyzing CASY stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
CASY Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) currently pays a dividend yield of 0.4%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in CASY stock would generate approximately $$42.00 in annual dividend income.
CASY Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) has a momentum factor score of 67/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 33/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 35/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
CASY vs Competitors — Consumer Discretionary Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing CASY against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full CASY vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
CASY Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy CASY? — Investment Thesis Summary
The bull case for CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC rests on several quantitative strengths. The value score of 68/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 67/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. Low volatility (stability score 87/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) earns a Buy rating with a composite score of 57.3/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on CASY stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingBuy
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Buy rating on Casey's General Stores (CASY), driven by its demonstrated ability to expand its store footprint in underserved markets, coupled with its successful private label strategy and prepared food offerings that drive higher margins. The company's focus on smaller towns with limited competition provides a defensible market position, while its commitment to technology and loyalty programs enhances customer engagement and drives repeat business. Despite a high P/E ratio, the company's strong EBITDA and free cash flow generation, combined with its stability in volatile markets, justify a premium valuation.
However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with fluctuating fuel margins and the potential impact of economic downturns on consumer spending. While the company's expansion strategy is promising, it also requires significant capital investment and carries execution risk. The current valuation reflects high expectations for future growth, leaving limited margin for error if the company fails to meet its targets. Nevertheless, Casey's unique business model and proven track record of success make it an attractive investment in the consumer discretionary sector.
Business Strategy & Overview
Casey's General Stores operates convenience stores primarily in the Midwestern and Southern United States, focusing on smaller towns and rural areas. This strategy allows the company to establish a strong presence in markets with limited competition from larger national chains. The company's core business model revolves around offering a wide range of products, including motor fuel, prepared foods, groceries, and other convenience items. A key differentiator for Casey's is its emphasis on prepared foods, particularly pizza, donuts, and sandwiches, which generate higher margins compared to traditional convenience store offerings.
The company's strategic positioning is centered on providing a convenient and reliable shopping experience for its customers. Casey's invests in technology to enhance its operations, including mobile ordering, loyalty programs, and data analytics to optimize product assortment and pricing. The company also focuses on expanding its private label offerings, which provide higher margins and increased customer loyalty. Furthermore, Casey's actively pursues acquisitions to expand its store footprint and enter new markets. The company's disciplined approach to capital allocation and its focus on operational efficiency contribute to its strong financial performance.
Casey's operates in the highly competitive convenience store industry, which is characterized by low barriers to entry and intense price competition. The company competes with national chains, regional players, and independent operators. However, Casey's differentiates itself through its focus on smaller towns, its emphasis on prepared foods, and its commitment to customer service. The company's loyalty program and mobile app provide a competitive advantage by enhancing customer engagement and driving repeat business. Casey's also benefits from its strong brand recognition and its reputation for providing quality products and services.
Looking ahead, Casey's plans to continue expanding its store footprint through both organic growth and acquisitions. The company aims to increase its market share in existing markets and enter new geographic areas. Casey's also plans to invest in technology to further enhance its operations and improve the customer experience. The company's focus on prepared foods and private label offerings will continue to be a key driver of growth and profitability. However, Casey's faces challenges related to fluctuating fuel margins, increasing labor costs, and changing consumer preferences. The company's ability to adapt to these challenges will be critical to its long-term success.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
0.3%
Sector: 3.3%
-90% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Casey's General Stores possesses a Narrow economic moat, primarily derived from its efficient scale and brand recognition in its target markets. The company's focus on smaller towns and rural areas creates a localized advantage, as larger national chains often find it uneconomical to compete in these markets. This allows Casey's to establish a dominant market position and build strong customer loyalty. The company's brand recognition is further enhanced by its consistent quality and service, as well as its community involvement.
The efficient scale advantage is evident in Casey's ability to operate profitably in smaller markets where competitors struggle. The company's efficient supply chain and distribution network enable it to offer competitive prices while maintaining healthy margins. Furthermore, Casey's benefits from its economies of scale in purchasing and marketing. However, the moat is not considered Wide because the convenience store industry generally has low barriers to entry, and Casey's faces competition from regional and independent operators.
While Casey's has developed a strong brand and loyal customer base, switching costs are relatively low. Customers can easily switch to other convenience stores or gas stations if they find better prices or more convenient locations. Therefore, Casey's must continuously invest in its customer experience and product offerings to maintain its competitive advantage. The company's loyalty program and mobile app help to increase customer stickiness, but they are not sufficient to create a Wide moat.
The company's prepared food offerings, particularly pizza, donuts, and sandwiches, contribute to its moat by differentiating it from competitors and driving higher margins. These offerings are difficult to replicate and require specialized equipment and training. However, other convenience stores are also expanding their prepared food offerings, which could erode Casey's competitive advantage over time. The company's private label strategy also helps to increase customer loyalty and improve margins, but it is not a significant moat source on its own.
In summary, Casey's possesses a Narrow economic moat due to its efficient scale and brand recognition in its target markets. However, the moat is not Wide due to the low barriers to entry in the convenience store industry and the relatively low switching costs for customers. The company must continue to invest in its customer experience, product offerings, and technology to maintain its competitive advantage and defend its market position.
Financial Health & Profitability
Casey's General Stores exhibits a mixed financial profile. The company's revenue growth has been modest, with a TTM revenue growth of 0.3% compared to the sector average of 3.2%. This suggests that Casey's is not growing as quickly as its peers in the consumer discretionary sector. However, the company's operating margin of 44.4% is significantly higher than the sector average of 3.8%, indicating strong operational efficiency and pricing power. This is further supported by a net margin of 3.8% compared to the sector average of 2.1%.
The company's ROE of 16.9% is also significantly higher than the sector average of 5.8%, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits. However, the company's gross margin of 24.0% is lower than the sector average of 36.9%, which may be due to its focus on motor fuel sales, which typically have lower margins. The company's current ratio of 1.04 indicates adequate liquidity to meet its short-term obligations.
Analyzing the quarterly financial history reveals some interesting trends. The company's revenue has been relatively stable over the past few quarters, with some fluctuations due to seasonal factors and fuel price volatility. Net income has also been volatile, with significant variations from quarter to quarter. The company's free cash flow has been particularly volatile, with negative free cash flow in some quarters due to capital expenditures and working capital changes. The Q1 2026 TTM FCF of $-952.23M is particularly concerning, though it has improved significantly by Q3 2026 to $75.21M.
The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 123.00 is higher than the sector average of 91.00, indicating higher leverage. However, the company's strong EBITDA generation helps to mitigate the risk associated with its debt. The company's total cash balance of $465.02M provides a buffer against unexpected expenses and allows it to pursue strategic acquisitions. Overall, Casey's financial health is solid, but investors should monitor its revenue growth, free cash flow generation, and debt levels closely.
Valuation Assessment
Casey's General Stores' valuation presents a mixed picture. The company's P/E ratio of 187.9x is significantly higher than the sector average of 28.0x, suggesting that the stock is overvalued based on earnings. However, the company's EV/EBITDA ratio of 1.9x is significantly lower than the sector average of 5.3x, indicating that the stock may be undervalued based on its enterprise value and EBITDA generation. This discrepancy suggests that the market is placing a premium on Casey's future growth prospects and its ability to generate strong cash flow.
The company's free cash flow yield, calculated using the TTM free cash flow of $467.13M and a market cap of $24.38B, is approximately 1.9%. This is relatively low compared to other companies in the consumer discretionary sector, suggesting that the stock is not particularly attractive based on its current free cash flow generation. However, the company's free cash flow is expected to grow in the future as it expands its store footprint and improves its operational efficiency.
The BCR proprietary quant model assigns a Value score of 69/100 to Casey's, indicating that the stock is reasonably valued based on its multiples. However, the model also assigns an Investment score of 33/100, suggesting that the company's capital allocation and growth prospects are not particularly attractive. The Momentum score of 67/100 indicates that the stock has been performing well recently, but this may be due to short-term factors rather than long-term fundamentals.
Overall, Casey's valuation is somewhat stretched based on its current earnings and free cash flow. However, the company's strong EBITDA generation, its growth prospects, and its stability in volatile markets justify a premium valuation. Investors should carefully consider the company's future growth potential and its ability to execute its strategic initiatives before investing in the stock. The high P/E ratio suggests that the market has high expectations for the company, leaving limited margin for error if it fails to meet its targets.
Risk & Uncertainty
Casey's General Stores faces several specific risks that could impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is the volatility of motor fuel margins. Fluctuations in crude oil prices and competitive pressures can significantly impact the company's fuel margins, which are a key driver of its profitability. The company attempts to mitigate this risk through its fuel hedging program, but it cannot completely eliminate the impact of fuel price volatility.
Another risk is the potential impact of economic downturns on consumer spending. Convenience stores are generally considered to be recession-resistant, but a severe economic downturn could lead to a decline in consumer spending on discretionary items, such as prepared foods and snacks. This could negatively impact Casey's revenue and profitability. The company's focus on smaller towns and rural areas may provide some protection against economic downturns, as these markets tend to be less volatile than urban areas.
Competition is also a significant risk for Casey's. The convenience store industry is highly competitive, and the company faces competition from national chains, regional players, and independent operators. Increased competition could lead to price wars and reduced margins. The company's ability to differentiate itself through its prepared food offerings, private label products, and customer service is critical to its success in a competitive environment.
Execution risk is another concern for Casey's. The company's expansion strategy requires significant capital investment and carries the risk of delays, cost overruns, and integration challenges. The company's ability to successfully integrate acquired stores and manage its growing store footprint is critical to its long-term success. Furthermore, the company faces risks related to labor costs, regulatory compliance, and supply chain disruptions.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWCasey's focus on underserved rural markets provides a defensible niche and allows for continued store expansion with less direct competition.
BULL VIEWThe company's prepared food offerings, particularly pizza, drive higher margins and customer loyalty, differentiating it from traditional gas stations.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWCasey's high P/E ratio suggests the stock is significantly overvalued, leaving little room for error in execution or unforeseen economic headwinds.
BEAR VIEWFluctuations in fuel margins and potential economic downturns could significantly impact profitability, as fuel sales remain a substantial portion of revenue.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score CASY and 4,400+ other equities.
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC exhibits a 207% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
7.6%
Sector: 2.5%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
24.0%
Sector: 36.9%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
44.4%
Sector: 3.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
3.8%
Sector: 2.1%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield0.00%
Yield Delta—
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $42 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
