YPF

We rate YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA (YPF) as a Hold with a composite score of 53.7/100 at a current price of $38.00. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (69th percentile) and quality (68th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (23th percentile) and investment (33th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (42/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 53.7/100 places it at rank #1442 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $33.4B market capitalization, YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA operates at meaningful scale within the Mining sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 11%, though momentum at the 23th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 28% (-15.3pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 8% (-4.6pp vs sector) and net margins of 12.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 44%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $38.00, YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 69/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 6.3x (a 54% discount to the sector median of 13.7x), EV/EBITDA of 1.2x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.3x, P/S of 0.2x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA. Key risk factors include . The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 49th percentile with quality at the 68th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 82.2%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 80%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.7/100 (rank #1442 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (42/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 49/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.