SU

We rate SUNCOR ENERGY INC (SU) as a Buy with a composite score of 73.8/100 at a current price of $55.82. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #21 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (90th percentile) and quality (87th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (61/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

SUNCOR ENERGY INC holds a top-quartile position (#2 of 50) within the Mining sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 73.8/100 places it at rank #21 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $46.0B market capitalization, SUNCOR ENERGY INC operates at meaningful scale within the Mining sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue contraction of -4% combined with momentum at the 53th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 58% (+15.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 18% (+6.2pp vs sector) and net margins of 11.0%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 19%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $55.82, SUNCOR ENERGY INC appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 90/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 17.2x (a 25% premium to the sector median of 13.7x), EV/EBITDA of 1.5x (discounted to peers), P/B of 2.1x, P/S of 0.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to SUNCOR ENERGY INC. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.72, conservative leverage (29% D/E), and a stability factor in the 86th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 86th percentile with quality at the 87th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 58% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (29% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (86th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate SUNCOR ENERGY INC's capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 54.1%, disciplined leverage (29% D/E), a 4.91% dividend yield. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — SUNCOR ENERGY INC meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 4.91% dividend yield, and the combination of 26.8% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, SUNCOR ENERGY INC receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 73.8/100 (rank #21 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (61/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 76/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on SUNCOR ENERGY INC. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, low uncertainty, and exemplary capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.