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Relative valuation derived from Energy sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 46.6GRADE C
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
189.6%
Sector: 6.7%
Dividend Analysis audit
No Dividend
This company does not currently pay a dividend.
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) receives a "Buy" rating with a composite score of 54.9/100, ranked #43 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 47/100, Value 97/100, Momentum 55/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does GeoPark Ltd Do?
GeoPark Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas reserves in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador. As of December 31, 2021, the company had working and/or economic interests in 42 hydrocarbons blocks. It had net proved reserves of 87.8 million barrels of oil equivalent. GeoPark Limited has a strategic partnership with ONGC Videsh to jointly acquire, invest in, and create value from upstream oil and gas projects across Latin America. The company was formerly known as GeoPark Holdings Limited and changed its name to GeoPark Limited in July 2013. GeoPark Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia. GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) is classified as a small-cap stock in the Energy sector, specifically within the Petroleum And Natural Gas industry. The company is led by CEO Andrés Ocampo and employs approximately 460 people. With a market capitalization of $452M, GPRK is one of the notable companies in the Energy sector.
As of April 2026, GeoPark Ltd receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 54.9/100 and 4 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.GPRK ranks #43 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Energy sector, GeoPark Ltd ranks #7 of 128 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Energy peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
GPRK Stock Price and 52-Week Range
GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) currently trades at $9.40. The stock gained $1.25 (15.3%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for GPRK is $10.01, which means the stock is currently trading -6.1% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $5.66, putting the stock 66.1% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 3.1M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is GPRK Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) carries a value factor score of 97/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 4.43x, compared to the Energy sector average of 19.63x — a discount of 77%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 2.72x, versus the sector average of 1.64x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.21x, compared to 0.47x for the average Energy stock. On an enterprise value basis, GPRK trades at 0.49x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.50x for the sector.
Based on these multiples, GeoPark Ltd appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
GeoPark Ltd Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) earns a quality factor score of 47/100, signaling below-average profitability metrics relative to the broader market. The return on equity (ROE) is 189.6%, compared to the Energy sector average of 6.7%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 32.1% versus the sector average of 3.7%.
On a margin basis, GeoPark Ltd reports gross margins of 75.2%, compared to 52.7% for the sector. The operating margin is 41.4% (sector: 10.7%). Net profit margin stands at 14.6%, versus 6.4% for the average Energy stock. Profitability is below benchmark levels, which may reflect industry headwinds, elevated reinvestment, or structural challenges.
GPRK Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
GeoPark Ltd has a debt-to-equity ratio of 262.0%, compared to the Energy sector average of 55.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. Total debt on the balance sheet is $532M. Cash and equivalents stand at $277M.
GPRK has a beta of 0.87, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for GeoPark Ltd is 51/100, reflecting average volatility within the normal range for its sector.
GeoPark Ltd Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, GeoPark Ltd reported revenue of $661M and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.84. Net income for the quarter was $96M. Gross margin was 75.2%. Operating income came in at $274M.
In FY 2024, GeoPark Ltd reported revenue of $661M and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.84. Net income for the quarter was $96M. Gross margin was 75.2%. Revenue grew -10.1% year-over-year compared to FY 2023. Operating income came in at $274M.
In FY 2023, GeoPark Ltd reported revenue of $735M. Net income for the quarter was $111M. Gross margin was 68.4%. Revenue grew -24.9% year-over-year compared to FY 2022. Operating income came in at $271M.
In FY 2022, GeoPark Ltd reported revenue of $979M and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.78. Net income for the quarter was $224M. Gross margin was 63.3%. Revenue grew 72.5% year-over-year compared to FY 2021. Operating income came in at $429M.
Over the past 8 quarters, GeoPark Ltd has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $617M to $661M. Investors analyzing GPRK stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
GPRK Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among smaller companies in the Petroleum And Natural Gas industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Energy dividend stocks may want to explore other Energy stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.
GPRK Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) has a momentum factor score of 55/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 28/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 48/100 reflects moderate short selling activity.
GPRK vs Competitors — Energy Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing GPRK against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full GPRK vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how GeoPark Ltd stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
GPRK Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy GPRK? — Investment Thesis Summary
The bull case for GeoPark Ltd rests on several quantitative strengths. The value score of 97/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals.
In summary, GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) earns a Buy rating with a composite score of 54.9/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on GPRK stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingBuy
Sections
Executive Summary
We initiate coverage of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) with a Buy rating. This rating is primarily driven by the company's compelling valuation, as evidenced by its significantly lower P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios compared to the energy sector, coupled with its high profitability as demonstrated by its exceptional ROE. While the company faces inherent risks associated with operating in the volatile energy sector and emerging markets, we believe the current market price does not adequately reflect GeoPark's strong free cash flow generation and strategic positioning in Latin America.
The most critical takeaway is that GeoPark presents a value opportunity within the energy sector. Its operational efficiency, reflected in its superior margins, combined with its focus on exploration and production in resource-rich regions, positions it for potential upside as commodity prices stabilize and the company continues to optimize its capital allocation strategy. However, investors should closely monitor geopolitical risks and the company's debt levels.
Business Strategy & Overview
GeoPark Limited operates as an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with a focus on Latin America. The company's strategy revolves around acquiring, exploring, developing, and producing hydrocarbons in the region. GeoPark differentiates itself through its deep regional expertise, its ability to identify and secure attractive assets, and its operational efficiency in extracting resources. The company's portfolio includes working and/or economic interests in 42 hydrocarbons blocks across Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador, providing diversification across different geological basins and regulatory environments.
A key element of GeoPark's strategy is its partnership approach. The strategic partnership with ONGC Videsh allows GeoPark to leverage the financial strength and technical expertise of a larger player, enabling it to pursue larger and more complex projects. This partnership also provides GeoPark with access to a broader network and potential opportunities for expansion. GeoPark's operational focus is on maximizing production from existing assets while selectively pursuing new exploration and development opportunities that align with its risk-return profile.
GeoPark's revenue generation is directly tied to the production and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's profitability is influenced by commodity prices, production volumes, operating costs, and transportation expenses. GeoPark actively manages its commodity price exposure through hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of price volatility. The company also invests in infrastructure and technology to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs.
The company's industry context is characterized by fluctuating commodity prices, evolving regulatory frameworks, and increasing environmental concerns. GeoPark operates in a competitive landscape with both international oil companies and local players. To succeed, GeoPark must maintain its operational excellence, adapt to changing market conditions, and demonstrate a commitment to sustainable development. The company's ability to navigate these challenges will be crucial for its long-term growth and profitability.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Gross Margin
Core pricing power
75.2%
Sector: 52.7%
+43% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
GeoPark's economic moat can be classified as Narrow. While the company doesn't possess a wide moat, it benefits from certain competitive advantages that provide a degree of protection against competitors. These advantages primarily stem from its regional expertise and strategic asset selection.
GeoPark's deep understanding of the Latin American oil and gas landscape, built over two decades, allows it to identify and acquire undervalued assets that may be overlooked by larger, less agile competitors. This regional expertise also enables GeoPark to navigate the complex regulatory environments and build strong relationships with local stakeholders. This localized knowledge acts as a barrier to entry for companies lacking similar experience in the region.
The company's strategic asset selection also contributes to its narrow moat. By focusing on assets with favorable geological characteristics and attractive production economics, GeoPark can achieve higher returns on investment compared to competitors who may be pursuing less profitable opportunities. This disciplined approach to capital allocation helps to protect the company's profitability and cash flow generation.
However, GeoPark's moat is not insurmountable. The oil and gas industry is inherently competitive, and larger players with greater financial resources can always enter the market and compete for assets. Furthermore, GeoPark's reliance on commodity prices exposes it to market volatility, which can erode its profitability and competitive advantage. Therefore, while GeoPark possesses certain competitive advantages, its moat is relatively narrow and susceptible to external factors.
The absence of a wide moat is further underscored by the lack of significant switching costs for customers (who are primarily refineries and other energy companies) and the limited network effects in the oil and gas exploration and production business. While GeoPark has built relationships with key stakeholders, these relationships are not necessarily exclusive or difficult for competitors to replicate.
Financial Health & Profitability
GeoPark's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company demonstrates strong profitability metrics, but also carries a significant debt burden. The TTM data shows a robust ROE of 189.6%, significantly exceeding the sector average of 6.9%. Gross, Operating, and Net Margins are also substantially higher than the sector, indicating efficient operations and cost management. However, the Debt-to-Equity ratio of 262.00 is considerably higher than the sector average of 55.00, suggesting a higher level of financial risk.
Analyzing the historical revenue growth reveals volatility. Revenue peaked in FY2022 at $979.36M, driven by higher commodity prices, but declined to $660.84M in FY2024. Net income also followed a similar trend, with a high of $224.44M in FY2022 and a decrease to $96.38M in FY2024. This volatility highlights the company's sensitivity to commodity price fluctuations and the inherent risks associated with the oil and gas industry.
Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation has also been inconsistent. While FCF was strong in FY2022 ($234.64M) and FY2024 ($209.28M), it was significantly lower in FY2023 ($109.77M) and even negative in FY2020 (-$95.26M). This variability in FCF generation raises concerns about the company's ability to consistently fund its capital expenditures and debt repayments.
The company's Total Cash of $276.75M provides a buffer against short-term liquidity challenges, but the Total Debt of $531.65M remains a significant concern. The high debt level increases the company's financial risk and limits its flexibility to pursue growth opportunities or weather periods of low commodity prices. The absence of a Current Ratio further complicates the assessment of the company's short-term liquidity position.
Overall, GeoPark's financial health is characterized by strong profitability and cash flow generation in certain periods, but also by high debt levels and volatile financial performance. The company's ability to manage its debt burden and maintain consistent profitability will be crucial for its long-term financial stability.
Valuation Assessment
GeoPark's valuation appears compelling based on several key metrics. The company's P/E ratio of 5.3x is significantly lower than the sector average of 19.5x, suggesting that the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings. Similarly, the EV/EBITDA ratio of 0.5x is substantially below the sector average of 3.5x, further indicating undervaluation. These low multiples suggest that the market is not fully recognizing GeoPark's earnings potential and cash flow generation capabilities.
However, it's crucial to consider the context of these valuation metrics. The energy sector is often subject to cyclical fluctuations and investor sentiment can be heavily influenced by commodity prices and geopolitical events. Therefore, a low P/E or EV/EBITDA ratio may reflect investor concerns about the sustainability of GeoPark's earnings in a volatile market environment.
Despite these concerns, GeoPark's strong free cash flow generation supports the argument for undervaluation. With a TTM FCF of $209.28M and a market cap of $507.14M, the company has a high FCF yield, indicating that it is generating a significant amount of cash relative to its market value. This strong cash flow provides the company with the flexibility to invest in growth opportunities, reduce debt, or return capital to shareholders.
Compared to its historical valuation, GeoPark's current multiples are also relatively low. The company's P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios have fluctuated over time, but they are currently trading at levels that are below their historical averages. This suggests that the market is currently undervaluing GeoPark relative to its past performance.
In conclusion, GeoPark's valuation appears attractive based on its low P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios, strong free cash flow generation, and historical valuation trends. While the company faces inherent risks associated with the energy sector, the current market price does not fully reflect its earnings potential and cash flow capabilities. We believe the stock is undervalued and presents a compelling investment opportunity.
Risk & Uncertainty
GeoPark faces several specific risks that could negatively impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is commodity price volatility. The company's revenue and profitability are directly tied to the prices of crude oil and natural gas, which can fluctuate significantly due to changes in supply and demand, geopolitical events, and macroeconomic conditions. A sustained decline in commodity prices could reduce GeoPark's earnings and cash flow, making it more difficult to service its debt and fund its capital expenditures.
Another key risk is political and regulatory uncertainty in the countries where GeoPark operates. Latin America is known for its political instability and evolving regulatory frameworks. Changes in government policies, tax laws, or environmental regulations could negatively impact GeoPark's operations and profitability. Furthermore, the company faces the risk of expropriation or nationalization of its assets, which could result in significant financial losses.
GeoPark's high debt levels also pose a significant risk. The company's Debt-to-Equity ratio of 262.00 is considerably higher than the sector average, indicating a higher level of financial leverage. This high debt burden increases the company's vulnerability to adverse economic conditions and commodity price fluctuations. If GeoPark is unable to generate sufficient cash flow to service its debt, it may be forced to sell assets or seek alternative financing, which could dilute shareholder value.
Competition from larger, more established oil and gas companies also presents a risk. GeoPark operates in a competitive industry with both international and local players. These larger companies may have greater financial resources, technical expertise, and operational capabilities, which could give them a competitive advantage. GeoPark must continue to innovate and improve its operational efficiency to compete effectively in this challenging environment.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWGeoPark's extremely low valuation multiples (P/E and EV/EBITDA) compared to peers suggest significant upside potential as the market recognizes its strong profitability and cash flow generation.
BULL VIEWThe company's strategic focus on Latin America, a region with abundant oil and gas resources, positions it for long-term growth as it continues to expand its production and reserves.
BULL VIEWGeoPark's high ROE demonstrates its efficient capital allocation and ability to generate superior returns, making it an attractive investment for value-oriented investors.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWGeoPark's high debt levels expose it to significant financial risk, particularly in a volatile commodity price environment, potentially leading to liquidity issues or even insolvency.
BEAR VIEWThe company's operations in politically unstable Latin American countries create significant regulatory and geopolitical risks that could negatively impact its profitability and asset value.
BEAR VIEWGeoPark's reliance on commodity prices makes it vulnerable to market fluctuations, and a sustained decline in oil and gas prices could significantly reduce its earnings and cash flow.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score GPRK and 4,400+ other equities.
GeoPark Ltd exhibits a 38% valuation discount relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a constructive entry window based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
32.1%
Sector: 3.7%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
75.2%
Sector: 52.7%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
41.4%
Sector: 10.7%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
14.6%
Sector: 6.4%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
