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Relative valuation derived from Energy sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 10GRADE F
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
22.7%
Sector: 6.7%
Dividend Analysis audit
No Dividend
This company does not currently pay a dividend.
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) receives a "Buy" rating with a composite score of 50.2/100, ranked #74 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 10/100, Value 89/100, Momentum 80/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. Do?
Baytex Energy Corp., an oil and gas company, acquires, develops, and produces oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Texas, the United States. The company offers light oil and condensate, heavy oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Its principal oil and natural gas properties comprise the Eagle Ford property in Texas, Viking and Lloydminster properties in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Peace River and Duvernay properties in Alberta. The company's properties also include conventional oil and natural gas assets in Western Canada. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved developed producing reserves of 129 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe); proved reserves of 278 mmboe; and proved plus probable reserves of 451 mmboe. Baytex Energy Corp. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) is classified as a mid-cap stock in the Energy sector, specifically within the Petroleum And Natural Gas industry. The company is led by CEO Eric T. Greager and employs approximately 220 people, headquartered in CALGARY, Alberta. With a market capitalization of $3.1B, BTE is one of the notable companies in the Energy sector.
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) Stock Rating — Buy (April 2026)
As of April 2026, BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 50.2/100 and 4 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.BTE ranks #74 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Energy sector, BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. ranks #11 of 128 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Energy peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
BTE Stock Price and 52-Week Range
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) currently trades at $4.12. The stock gained $0.08 (2.0%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for BTE is $4.17, which means the stock is currently trading -1.2% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $1.36, putting the stock 202.9% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 11.2M shares, indicating strong institutional interest and high liquidity.
Is BTE Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) carries a value factor score of 89/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 20.06x, compared to the Energy sector average of 19.63x — a premium of 2%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.14x, versus the sector average of 1.64x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.40x, compared to 0.47x for the average Energy stock. On an enterprise value basis, BTE trades at 0.87x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.50x for the sector.
Based on these multiples, BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) earns a quality factor score of 10/100, signaling below-average profitability metrics relative to the broader market. The return on equity (ROE) is 22.7%, compared to the Energy sector average of 6.7%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 12.2% versus the sector average of 3.7%.
On a margin basis, BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. reports gross margins of 77.1%, compared to 52.7% for the sector. The operating margin is 27.1% (sector: 10.7%). Net profit margin stands at 8.1%, versus 6.4% for the average Energy stock. Profitability is below benchmark levels, which may reflect industry headwinds, elevated reinvestment, or structural challenges.
BTE Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 55.0%, compared to the Energy sector average of 55.0%. Leverage is within a manageable range for the industry, though investors should monitor debt trends over time. Total debt on the balance sheet is $1.59B. Cash and equivalents stand at $12M.
BTE has a beta of 1.52, meaning it is more volatile than the broader market — a $10,000 investment in BTE would be expected to move 52.3% more than the S&P 500 on any given day. The stability factor score for BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. is 42/100, reflecting average volatility within the normal range for its sector.
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. reported revenue of $2.04B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20. Net income for the quarter was $164M. Gross margin was 77.1%. Operating income came in at $552M.
In FY 2024, BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. reported revenue of $2.04B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20. Net income for the quarter was $164M. Gross margin was 77.1%. Revenue grew 12.1% year-over-year compared to FY 2023. Operating income came in at $552M.
In FY 2023, BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. reported revenue of $1.82B and earnings per share (EPS) of $-0.25. Net income for the quarter was $-177M. Gross margin was 74.6%. Revenue grew 17.7% year-over-year compared to FY 2022. Operating income came in at $-273M.
In FY 2022, BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. reported revenue of $1.54B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.53. Net income for the quarter was $632M. Gross margin was 78.4%. Revenue grew 39.7% year-over-year compared to FY 2021. Operating income came in at $917M.
Over the past 7 quarters, BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $1.06B to $2.04B. Investors analyzing BTE stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
BTE Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among smaller companies in the Petroleum And Natural Gas industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Energy dividend stocks may want to explore other Energy stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.
BTE Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) has a momentum factor score of 80/100, indicating strong price momentum with the stock outperforming the majority of the market over recent periods. Stocks with high momentum scores have historically tended to continue their outperformance in the near term. The investment factor score is 49/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 48/100 reflects moderate short selling activity.
BTE vs Competitors — Energy Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing BTE against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full BTE vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
BTE Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy BTE? — Investment Thesis Summary
The bull case for BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. rests on several quantitative strengths. The quality score of 10/100 flags below-average profitability. The value score of 89/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 80/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers.
In summary, BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) earns a Buy rating with a composite score of 50.2/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on BTE stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. (BTE) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingBuy
Sections
Executive Summary
Baytex Energy Corp. is currently rated as a Hold, a 3-star rating reflecting a composite score of 50.1/100. This rating is primarily driven by a mixed financial profile: strong value and momentum scores are offset by concerning quality (profitability) and stability metrics. While Baytex operates in a sector benefiting from robust commodity prices, its relatively high debt levels and volatile profitability necessitate a cautious approach, justifying the Hold rating.
The company's valuation appears attractive based on EV/EBITDA, but this is tempered by its historical earnings volatility and relatively low quality score. Investors should closely monitor Baytex's ability to consistently generate free cash flow and manage its debt burden in the face of fluctuating commodity prices. The key takeaway is that while Baytex offers potential upside from its asset base and operational leverage, the risks associated with its financial structure and the inherent cyclicality of the energy sector warrant a neutral stance.
Business Strategy & Overview
Baytex Energy Corp. operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company with assets primarily located in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and Texas. The company's strategy revolves around acquiring, developing, and producing a diversified portfolio of oil and natural gas, including light oil, heavy oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Key properties include the Eagle Ford in Texas, Viking and Lloydminster in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and Peace River and Duvernay in Alberta. This geographic diversification aims to mitigate regional risks and capitalize on varying commodity price dynamics.
Baytex's business model is heavily reliant on prevailing commodity prices. Higher oil and gas prices directly translate to increased revenue and profitability, while lower prices can significantly impact cash flows and asset valuations. The company's strategic focus includes optimizing production from existing assets, pursuing cost efficiencies, and selectively acquiring new properties to expand its resource base. A critical aspect of their strategy involves managing their debt load, which has historically been a concern, and allocating capital effectively to maximize shareholder returns.
The company's product mix is diverse, spanning from light oil and condensate to heavy oil and natural gas. This diversification provides some resilience against price fluctuations in specific commodity markets. However, the overall performance remains highly correlated with the broader energy market. Baytex competes with numerous other oil and gas producers, ranging from large integrated companies to smaller independent operators. The competitive landscape is intense, with companies vying for access to resources, capital, and skilled labor.
Baytex's strategic positioning involves balancing production growth with financial discipline. The company aims to increase production while maintaining a strong balance sheet and generating free cash flow. This requires careful capital allocation decisions, including investments in drilling, infrastructure, and acquisitions. The company's success hinges on its ability to execute its operational plans efficiently and adapt to changing market conditions. The company's focus on both Canadian and US assets provides optionality in terms of regulatory environments and market access.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Gross Margin
Core pricing power
77.1%
Sector: 52.7%
+46% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Baytex Energy Corp. possesses a narrow economic moat, primarily derived from a combination of cost advantages and strategic asset positioning. The company's operations in established oil and gas regions, such as the Eagle Ford and Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, provide access to existing infrastructure and established supply chains, contributing to lower operating costs compared to companies exploring in frontier regions. However, this cost advantage is not substantial enough to create a wide moat, as many other producers in these regions benefit from similar infrastructure.
The company's diversified asset base, spanning multiple resource types and geographic locations, offers a degree of resilience against commodity price volatility and regional disruptions. This diversification can be considered a form of strategic asset positioning, which contributes to a narrow moat by providing flexibility in production and capital allocation. However, the inherent cyclicality of the oil and gas industry and the commodity nature of its products limit the extent to which this diversification can create a sustainable competitive advantage.
Baytex does not exhibit strong network effects or high switching costs, which are characteristic of companies with wider moats. Customers typically purchase oil and gas based on price and availability, with little differentiation between producers. Similarly, the company's intangible assets, such as patents or proprietary technologies, are not significant enough to create a substantial barrier to entry for competitors. While Baytex possesses technical expertise in drilling and production, this expertise is not unique and can be replicated by other experienced operators.
Efficient scale, another potential source of economic moat, is not a dominant factor for Baytex. While the company benefits from economies of scale in its operations, it does not possess a scale advantage that would prevent smaller or larger competitors from effectively competing in the market. The oil and gas industry is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with numerous players of varying sizes and capabilities. Therefore, Baytex's narrow moat is primarily based on modest cost advantages and strategic asset positioning, rather than insurmountable barriers to entry or overwhelming competitive advantages.
Financial Health & Profitability
Baytex Energy's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company's revenue has shown significant volatility over the past five years, ranging from a low of $576.11 million in FY2020 to $2.04 billion in the latest fiscal year. This volatility reflects the sensitivity of the company's revenue to fluctuating commodity prices. Net income has also been highly variable, with substantial losses in FY2020 and FY2023 offset by significant profits in FY2021 and FY2022. This inconsistency in earnings raises concerns about the company's ability to generate sustainable profitability.
Gross margins have remained relatively stable, ranging from 54.9% to 78.4% over the past five years, indicating a consistent ability to control production costs. However, operating margins have been far more volatile, reflecting the impact of commodity prices and operating expenses on profitability. The company's operating margin reached a high of 148.0% in FY2021 but plummeted to -338.9% in FY2020 and -15.0% in FY2023, highlighting the significant impact of commodity price fluctuations on the bottom line.
Free cash flow (FCF) generation has also been inconsistent. While the company generated substantial FCF in FY2021 and FY2022, it experienced negative FCF in FY2020 and FY2023. The recent FCF of $381.80 million is a positive sign, but the historical volatility underscores the need for caution. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 55.00 is in line with the sector average, suggesting a moderate level of leverage. However, the company's total debt of $1.59 billion is significant and requires careful management.
Compared to the energy sector, Baytex exhibits a higher ROE (22.7% vs. 6.9%), gross margin (77.1% vs. 55.1%), operating margin (27.1% vs. 10.6%), and net margin (8.1% vs. 6.3%). This suggests that Baytex is more efficient and profitable than the average company in the sector. However, the company's revenue growth is not available, making it difficult to assess its growth prospects relative to the sector. The company's relatively low cash balance of $11.53 million raises concerns about its liquidity position, particularly in the event of a prolonged downturn in commodity prices. Overall, Baytex's financial health is characterized by strong profitability metrics but also significant volatility and a relatively high debt burden.
Valuation Assessment
Baytex Energy's valuation presents a mixed picture. The company's P/E ratio of 20.4x is slightly higher than the sector average of 19.5x, suggesting that the stock is fairly valued relative to its earnings. However, the P/E ratio can be misleading due to the volatility of the company's earnings. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 0.8x is significantly lower than the sector average of 3.5x, indicating that the stock is undervalued based on its enterprise value and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. This low EV/EBITDA ratio may reflect investor concerns about the company's debt load and the cyclicality of its earnings.
The company's free cash flow yield, calculated as FCF divided by market capitalization, is approximately 12.6%, which is relatively high. This suggests that the stock is generating a significant amount of free cash flow relative to its market value, potentially indicating undervaluation. However, the sustainability of this free cash flow is uncertain, given the historical volatility of the company's earnings and cash flows. A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis would be necessary to determine the intrinsic value of the stock, but this requires making assumptions about future growth rates, discount rates, and terminal values.
Compared to its historical valuation, Baytex's current P/E ratio is within its historical range, but its EV/EBITDA ratio is relatively low. This suggests that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its historical average. However, it is important to note that the company's historical valuation may not be a reliable indicator of its future valuation, given the changes in the company's business and the overall market environment.
Overall, Baytex's valuation appears attractive based on EV/EBITDA and free cash flow yield, but the stock is fairly valued based on its P/E ratio. The valuation is highly sensitive to assumptions about future commodity prices and the company's ability to generate sustainable earnings and cash flows. Given the inherent uncertainty in the energy sector, a conservative approach to valuation is warranted. The Hold rating reflects the balanced view that the stock is neither significantly overvalued nor significantly undervalued, given its risk profile and growth prospects.
Risk & Uncertainty
Baytex Energy faces several significant risks. The most prominent is commodity price risk. The company's revenue and profitability are highly dependent on the prices of oil and natural gas, which are subject to significant volatility due to global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and macroeconomic factors. A sustained decline in commodity prices could significantly reduce the company's cash flows and asset values, potentially leading to financial distress.
Another key risk is debt burden. Baytex has a significant amount of debt outstanding, which increases its financial leverage and vulnerability to adverse economic conditions. The company's ability to service its debt depends on its ability to generate sufficient cash flows, which is subject to commodity price risk. A prolonged period of low commodity prices could strain the company's ability to meet its debt obligations, potentially leading to default or restructuring.
Operational risks also pose a threat. These include drilling risks, production risks, and environmental risks. Drilling risks involve the possibility of encountering unexpected geological conditions or equipment failures, which could increase drilling costs and delay production. Production risks include the possibility of reservoir depletion, well failures, and pipeline disruptions, which could reduce production volumes and increase operating costs. Environmental risks include the possibility of spills, leaks, and other environmental incidents, which could result in significant liabilities and reputational damage.
Regulatory risk is also a factor. The oil and gas industry is subject to extensive regulation, including environmental regulations, safety regulations, and tax regulations. Changes in these regulations could increase the company's operating costs and reduce its profitability. For example, stricter environmental regulations could require the company to invest in new technologies or reduce its production volumes. Increased taxes on oil and gas production could reduce the company's after-tax profits.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWBaytex's low EV/EBITDA ratio signals undervaluation, offering substantial upside potential as commodity prices remain elevated and the company continues to generate strong free cash flow.
BULL VIEWThe company's diversified asset base in both Canada and the US provides resilience against regional economic downturns and regulatory changes, ensuring stable production and revenue streams.
BULL VIEWBaytex's commitment to debt reduction and capital discipline will strengthen its balance sheet and improve its financial flexibility, making it an attractive investment in the long term.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWBaytex's high debt levels make it vulnerable to commodity price downturns, potentially leading to financial distress if oil and gas prices decline significantly.
BEAR VIEWThe company's volatile earnings history and inconsistent free cash flow generation raise concerns about its ability to sustain profitability and generate shareholder value over the long term.
BEAR VIEWIncreased regulatory scrutiny and environmental concerns surrounding oil and gas production could lead to higher operating costs and reduced production volumes, negatively impacting Baytex's financial performance.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score BTE and 4,400+ other equities.
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. exhibits a 30% valuation discount relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a constructive entry window based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
12.2%
Sector: 3.7%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
77.1%
Sector: 52.7%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
27.1%
Sector: 10.7%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
8.1%
Sector: 6.4%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
