IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
© 2026 Blank Capital Research. All rights reserved. System Version: Aegis V8 (God Mode).
Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2343
Positioning
Market Dominance
Services
Entertainment
$380M
Anthony Geisler
Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness franchisor in the United States and internationally. As of December 31, 2021, it had 1,556 franchisees operating 1,954 open studios. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = XPOF ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$YALA Yalla Group Ltd | 75 | 89 | 99 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GRVY GRAVITY Co., Ltd. | 75 | 82 | 96 | 71 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ISSC INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC | 73 | 81 | 88 | 94 | 25.0x | 14.1x | 17.1% | 10.3% | 35.5% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 105.2% | 0.0% | 41.0x | $244M | VS | |
$AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | 72 | 60 | 87 | 84 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC | 72 | 74 | 88 | 88 | 7.1x | 6.1x | 28.9% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC | 72 | 90 | 88 | 68 | 24.9x | 14.3x | 14.1% | 8.3% | 45.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $736M | VS | |
$TRTNpA Triton International Ltd | 71 | 70 | 89 | 70 | - | 1.7x | 0.0% | - | 97.4% | 58.0% | 37.4% | - | 8.8% | 264.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 71 | 83 | 52 | 77 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NTES NetEase, Inc. | 71 | 88 | 93 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC | 70 | 86 | 86 | 72 | 43.2x | 16.0x | 15.3% | 5.8% | 100.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 24.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$XPOF Xponential Fitness, Inc. | 48 | 51 | 58 | 44 | - | 18.8x | -0.4% | -7.3% | 78.0% | 223.4% | -201.8% | -31.9% | 0.0% | - | $380M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 23.7x | 11.7x | 5.7% | 2.4% | 64.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 47.9/100. It ranks #2343 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
Sign in to join the discussion.
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Relative valuation derived from Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for XPOF.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 51 | 60 | -9DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 44 | 41 | +3NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 58 | 64 | -6DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 33 | 44 | -11DRAG |
| STABILITY | 32 | 24 | +8ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 30 | 17 | +13ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 0.8% vs WACC 5.8% (spread -4.9%)
GM 78% vs sector 65%, OM 223% vs sector 5%
Capital turnover 0.01x
Rev growth -32%, 5yr history
Interest coverage 0.3x, Net debt/EBITDA 46.2x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) as a Reduce with a composite score of 47.9/100 at a current price of $8.22. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
Xponential Fitness, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 47.9/100 places it at rank #2343 in our full universe.
No Moat
High
Poor
Fair Value
Gross margins of 78% signal strong pricing power.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Xponential Fitness, Inc. represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Xponential Fitness, Inc. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 47.9/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2343 out of 7,333 stocks. XPOF's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
With a quality score of 51/100, XPOF shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of -0.4% (sector avg: 5.7%), gross margins of 78.0% (sector avg: 64.6%), net margins of -201.8% (sector avg: 2.8%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
XPOF's value score of 58/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include an EV/EBITDA of 18.83x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s investment score of 33/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -31.9% vs. a sector average of 8.6% and a return on assets of -7.3% (sector: 2.4%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
XPOF is currently showing below-average momentum at 44/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -31.9% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.14 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
XPOF's stability score of 32/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.14. Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s short interest score of 30/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include small-cap liquidity risk. At $380M (small-cap), XPOF carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
Xponential Fitness, Inc. is a small-cap company in the Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2343 of 7,333 overall (68th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -0.4% trailing the 5.7% sector median and operating margins of 223.4% above the 4.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Services peers.
While XPOF currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Upgrade catalyst
Improvement in Short Int. (30) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 61% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 108% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 21% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Xponential Fitness (XPOF) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -11.11% and 0.05%, respectively, for the quarter ended March 2024. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
IRVINE, Calif., February 23, 2026--Xponential Fitness, Inc. (NYSE: XPOF) ("Xponential" or the "Company"), one of the leading global franchisors of boutique health and wellness brands, today announced that Mike Nuzzo, Chief Executive Officer, and John Meloun, Chief Financial Officer, will present at the Raymond James 47th Annual Institutional Investors Conference in Orlando, Florida, on Monday, March 2nd at 1:40 p.m. ET. Management will also participate in meetings with investors throughout the d
Xponential Fitness (XPOF) collaborates with Tage Flugeim to mark the debut of the BFT brand in the Scandinavian region.
Six Flags (SIX) was a big mover last session on higher-than-average trading volume. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions might not help the stock continue moving higher in the near term.
Xponential Fitness (XPOF) was a big mover last session on higher-than-average trading volume. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions might not help the stock continue moving higher in the near term.