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Relative valuation derived from Industrials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 27.3GRADE F
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
81.9%
Sector: 8.9%
Dividend Analysis audit
No Dividend
This company does not currently pay a dividend.
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 53.7/100, ranked #1283 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 27/100, Value 70/100, Momentum 65/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does AerCap Holdings N.V. Do?
AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in China, Hong Kong, Macau, the United States, Ireland, and internationally. The company offers aircraft asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines; collecting rental and maintenance rent payments, monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft and engines; and conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews. Its aircraft asset management services also include periodically inspecting the leased aircraft; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructuring negotiations in connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft and engines; arranging and monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft; arranging for aircraft and engine valuations; and providing market research services. The company also provides cash management services, including treasury services, such as the financing, refinancing, hedging, and ongoing cash management of vehicles; and administrative services comprising accounting and corporate secretarial services consisting of the preparation of budgets and financial statements. In addition, it offers airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines; maintenance, repair, and overhaul service providers; and aircraft parts distributors. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a portfolio of 2,369 owned, managed, or on order aircraft. AerCap Holdings N.V. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Business Services industry. The company is led by CEO Aengus Kelly and employs approximately 740 people. With a market capitalization of $22.8B, AER is one of the prominent companies in the Industrials sector.
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, AerCap Holdings N.V. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.7/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.AER ranks #1,283 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Industrials sector, AerCap Holdings N.V. ranks #204 of 752 stocks, placing it in the upper half of its Industrials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
AER Stock Price and 52-Week Range
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) currently trades at $145.53. The stock gained $0.26 (0.2%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for AER is $154.94, which means the stock is currently trading -6.1% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $85.57, putting the stock 70.1% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 795K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is AER Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) carries a value factor score of 70/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 13.54x, compared to the Industrials sector average of 28.33x — a discount of 52%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.25x, versus the sector average of 2.23x. The price-to-sales ratio is 0.67x, compared to 0.50x for the average Industrials stock. On an enterprise value basis, AER trades at 0.78x EV/EBITDA, versus 5.70x for the sector. The EV/EBIT multiple is 16.11x.
Based on these multiples, AerCap Holdings N.V. appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
AerCap Holdings N.V. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) earns a quality factor score of 27/100, signaling below-average profitability metrics relative to the broader market. The return on equity (ROE) is 81.9%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 8.9%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 20.9% versus the sector average of 3.3%.
On a margin basis, AerCap Holdings N.V. reports gross margins of 100.0%, compared to 35.8% for the sector. The operating margin is 47.9% (sector: 6.2%). Net profit margin stands at 44.0%, versus 3.9% for the average Industrials stock. Revenue growth is running at 6.5% on a trailing basis, compared to 6.4% for the sector. Profitability is below benchmark levels, which may reflect industry headwinds, elevated reinvestment, or structural challenges.
AER Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
AerCap Holdings N.V. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 291.0%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 70.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 0.81x, which may signal near-term liquidity tightness. Total debt on the balance sheet is $45.29B. Cash and equivalents stand at $1.38B.
AER has a beta of 0.87, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for AerCap Holdings N.V. is 78/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
AerCap Holdings N.V. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, AerCap Holdings N.V. reported revenue of $8.52B and earnings per share (EPS) of $21.30. Net income for the quarter was $3.75B. Gross margin was 100.0%. Operating income came in at $2.26B.
In FY 2025, AerCap Holdings N.V. reported revenue of $8.52B. Net income for the quarter was $3.75B. Gross margin was 100.0%. Revenue grew 6.5% year-over-year compared to FY 2024.
In FY 2024, AerCap Holdings N.V. reported revenue of $8.00B and earnings per share (EPS) of $11.06. Net income for the quarter was $2.10B. Gross margin was 100.0%. Revenue grew 5.5% year-over-year compared to FY 2023. Operating income came in at $2.26B.
In FY 2023, AerCap Holdings N.V. reported revenue of $7.58B and earnings per share (EPS) of $13.99. Net income for the quarter was $3.15B. Gross margin was 100.0%. Revenue grew 8.1% year-over-year compared to FY 2022. Operating income came in at $3.27B.
Over the past 8 quarters, AerCap Holdings N.V. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $4.94B to $8.52B. Investors analyzing AER stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
AER Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among growth-oriented companies in the Business Services industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Industrials dividend stocks may want to explore other Industrials stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.
AER Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) has a momentum factor score of 65/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 63/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 48/100 reflects moderate short selling activity.
AER vs Competitors — Industrials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing AER against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full AER vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how AerCap Holdings N.V. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
AER Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy AER? — Investment Thesis Summary
AerCap Holdings N.V. presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The quality score of 27/100 flags below-average profitability. The value score of 70/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 65/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. Low volatility (stability score 78/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.7/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on AER stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain our Hold rating on AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER). While the company exhibits compelling valuation metrics and robust profitability, particularly when compared to its industrial sector peers, concerns regarding its high debt load and the cyclical nature of the aircraft leasing industry temper our enthusiasm. The company's impressive ROE and operating margins are noteworthy, but the sustainability of these figures in the face of potential economic downturns and fluctuating interest rates remains a key uncertainty.
AerCap's strategic positioning as the world's largest aircraft lessor provides it with significant scale advantages, but this dominance also exposes it to concentrated risks related to airline bankruptcies and geopolitical instability. The current valuation appears attractive, but a deeper assessment reveals that the market is likely discounting the inherent risks associated with the company's capital-intensive business model and its reliance on stable global air travel demand. Therefore, a Hold rating is warranted until greater clarity emerges regarding the long-term sustainability of AerCap's financial performance and its ability to navigate potential industry headwinds.
Business Strategy & Overview
AerCap Holdings N.V. operates as the world's largest independent aircraft lessor, deriving its revenue primarily from leasing commercial aircraft to airlines globally. The company's business model centers on purchasing new and used aircraft and then leasing them to airlines under long-term contracts, typically ranging from several years to over a decade. This strategy allows airlines to expand or modernize their fleets without incurring the significant capital expenditure associated with outright aircraft ownership. AerCap also generates revenue from aircraft sales, engine leasing, and asset management services, including maintenance, insurance, and remarketing.
A key element of AerCap's strategy is its focus on maintaining a diversified portfolio of aircraft types and lessees. This diversification mitigates the risk associated with specific aircraft models becoming obsolete or individual airlines experiencing financial distress. The company actively manages its portfolio by selling older aircraft and investing in newer, more fuel-efficient models, thereby ensuring that its fleet remains attractive to airlines and compliant with evolving environmental regulations. Furthermore, AerCap's global presence allows it to capitalize on growth opportunities in emerging markets, where air travel demand is increasing rapidly.
AerCap's strategic positioning is further strengthened by its strong relationships with aircraft manufacturers, such as Boeing and Airbus. These relationships enable the company to secure favorable pricing and delivery terms for new aircraft, enhancing its profitability and competitiveness. Additionally, AerCap's extensive technical expertise and asset management capabilities provide it with a competitive edge in the aircraft leasing market. The company's ability to effectively manage its fleet, remarket aircraft, and provide value-added services to its lessees contributes to its long-term success.
The industry context in which AerCap operates is characterized by cyclicality and sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. Air travel demand is closely correlated with economic growth, and periods of economic recession or geopolitical instability can negatively impact airline profitability and, consequently, demand for aircraft leasing. Furthermore, the aircraft leasing industry is subject to regulatory changes, such as environmental regulations and safety standards, which can impact the value and operating costs of aircraft. AerCap's ability to navigate these challenges and adapt to changing market conditions is crucial to its long-term performance.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
6.5%
Sector: 6.4%
IN LINE
Economic Moat Analysis
AerCap possesses a narrow economic moat, primarily derived from its scale and expertise in the aircraft leasing industry. As the world's largest aircraft lessor, AerCap benefits from economies of scale in aircraft procurement, financing, and asset management. Its large fleet size allows it to negotiate favorable pricing with aircraft manufacturers and secure competitive financing terms. Furthermore, its extensive technical expertise and global network of relationships provide it with a competitive advantage in remarketing aircraft and managing its portfolio.
However, the aircraft leasing industry is inherently competitive, and AerCap's moat is not insurmountable. While the company's scale provides it with certain advantages, smaller lessors can still compete effectively by focusing on niche markets or offering specialized services. Furthermore, airlines themselves can choose to own their aircraft rather than lease them, reducing the overall demand for aircraft leasing services. The presence of well-capitalized competitors and the potential for airlines to self-finance limit AerCap's pricing power and profitability.
The switching costs for airlines are relatively low, as they can easily switch between different lessors when their leases expire. This lack of stickiness reduces AerCap's ability to retain customers and maintain high occupancy rates. While the company's reputation and track record may provide it with some advantage, airlines are primarily driven by price and availability when making leasing decisions. Therefore, AerCap must continually offer competitive terms and maintain a high-quality fleet to retain its customers.
Intangible assets, such as brand recognition and intellectual property, play a limited role in the aircraft leasing industry. While AerCap has a well-established brand, it does not command a significant premium over its competitors. The company's expertise in asset management and remarketing is valuable, but it is not unique and can be replicated by other lessors. Therefore, intangible assets do not contribute significantly to AerCap's economic moat.
Efficient scale is not a significant factor in the aircraft leasing industry. While AerCap's large scale provides it with certain advantages, it does not create a natural monopoly or barrier to entry. Smaller lessors can still operate profitably by focusing on specific aircraft types or geographic regions. Therefore, efficient scale does not contribute significantly to AerCap's economic moat. In conclusion, AerCap's narrow economic moat is primarily derived from its scale and expertise, but it is not insurmountable and is subject to competitive pressures.
Financial Health & Profitability
AerCap's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company's revenue has demonstrated consistent growth over the past decade, with a notable increase in FY2025 to $8.52 billion. Net income has been more volatile, with significant fluctuations due to factors such as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and impairments on aircraft assets. However, the company has generally been profitable, with a strong rebound in net income in FY2025 to $3.75 billion.
AerCap's profitability metrics are impressive compared to the industrial sector average. Its gross margin is consistently 100%, reflecting the nature of its leasing business. Operating margin has fluctuated but remains strong, reaching 47.9% in the latest period, significantly higher than the sector average of 6.2%. Net margin is also exceptionally high at 44.0%, compared to the sector average of 3.7%. The company's ROE of 81.9% is significantly higher than the sector average of 9.2%, indicating efficient use of equity capital.
However, AerCap's balance sheet is highly leveraged, with a total debt of $45.29 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio of 291.00, significantly higher than the sector average of 70.00. This high leverage exposes the company to interest rate risk and increases its vulnerability to economic downturns. While AerCap has historically managed its debt effectively, the high level of leverage remains a concern.
AerCap's cash flow generation has been inconsistent. Free cash flow (FCF) has fluctuated significantly over the past decade, with negative FCF in some years due to large capital expenditures on aircraft purchases. However, FCF has been positive in recent years, reaching $4.38 billion in FY2025. The company's ability to generate consistent FCF is crucial to its ability to service its debt and invest in future growth.
The quarterly financial history reveals a trend of increasing revenue and fluctuating profitability. The company's performance was negatively impacted in FY2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but it has since recovered strongly. The company's ability to maintain its strong profitability and cash flow generation in the face of potential economic headwinds will be crucial to its long-term financial health.
Valuation Assessment
AerCap's valuation metrics suggest that the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings and assets. The company's P/E ratio of 13.5x is significantly lower than the industrial sector average of 27.7x, indicating that the market is discounting its earnings potential. Similarly, its EV/EBITDA ratio of 0.7x is substantially lower than the sector average of 5.7x, suggesting that the company is undervalued relative to its operating cash flow.
However, these valuation metrics must be interpreted in the context of AerCap's high leverage and the cyclical nature of the aircraft leasing industry. The market may be discounting the company's earnings due to concerns about its debt load and its vulnerability to economic downturns. Furthermore, the company's earnings have been volatile in recent years, making it difficult to project future earnings with certainty.
A more comprehensive valuation analysis would involve considering the company's free cash flow yield and its net asset value. AerCap's free cash flow yield, calculated as FCF per share divided by the share price, is relatively high, indicating that the company is generating significant cash flow relative to its market capitalization. However, the sustainability of this cash flow is dependent on the company's ability to maintain high occupancy rates and manage its debt effectively.
The company's net asset value, which is the difference between its assets and liabilities, is also a relevant valuation metric. AerCap's net asset value is likely to be significantly higher than its market capitalization, reflecting the value of its aircraft fleet. However, the value of aircraft assets can fluctuate depending on market conditions and technological advancements. Therefore, a conservative estimate of net asset value is warranted.
Overall, AerCap's valuation appears attractive based on traditional metrics such as P/E and EV/EBITDA. However, a deeper assessment reveals that the market is likely discounting the inherent risks associated with the company's capital-intensive business model and its reliance on stable global air travel demand. Therefore, a fair valuation would be somewhere between the deeply discounted multiples and a more normalized valuation that reflects the company's long-term growth potential and its ability to manage its risks effectively.
Risk & Uncertainty
AerCap faces several specific risks that could negatively impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is the cyclical nature of the aircraft leasing industry. Air travel demand is closely correlated with economic growth, and periods of economic recession or geopolitical instability can negatively impact airline profitability and, consequently, demand for aircraft leasing. A prolonged economic downturn could lead to airline bankruptcies and lease defaults, reducing AerCap's revenue and asset values.
Another significant risk is the company's high level of debt. AerCap's debt-to-equity ratio is significantly higher than the sector average, exposing it to interest rate risk and increasing its vulnerability to economic downturns. Rising interest rates could increase the company's borrowing costs and reduce its profitability. Furthermore, the company's ability to refinance its debt on favorable terms is dependent on its credit rating and market conditions.
Geopolitical risks also pose a significant threat to AerCap's business. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has already had a negative impact on the company's financial performance, and further geopolitical instability could disrupt air travel demand and increase the risk of airline bankruptcies. Furthermore, trade wars and other international disputes could negatively impact global economic growth and reduce demand for aircraft leasing.
Technological obsolescence is another risk that AerCap faces. The development of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft could render older aircraft obsolete, reducing their value and demand. AerCap must continually invest in newer aircraft to maintain its competitiveness and avoid being stuck with obsolete assets. Furthermore, the company must adapt to evolving environmental regulations, which could require it to modify or retire older aircraft.
Finally, concentration risk is a concern for AerCap. The company's largest customers account for a significant portion of its revenue, and the loss of one or more of these customers could negatively impact its financial performance. Furthermore, the company's aircraft fleet is concentrated in certain geographic regions, exposing it to regional economic downturns and geopolitical risks.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWAerCap's dominant market position and scale advantages allow it to secure favorable pricing on aircraft and financing, leading to superior profitability.
BULL VIEWThe increasing global demand for air travel, particularly in emerging markets, will drive strong growth in aircraft leasing and boost AerCap's revenue and earnings.
BULL VIEWAerCap's proactive fleet management and focus on fuel-efficient aircraft will ensure its portfolio remains attractive to airlines and compliant with evolving environmental regulations.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWAerCap's high debt load makes it vulnerable to rising interest rates and economic downturns, potentially leading to financial distress.
BEAR VIEWThe cyclical nature of the aircraft leasing industry exposes AerCap to significant revenue volatility and the risk of airline bankruptcies during economic recessions.
BEAR VIEWGeopolitical instability and trade wars could disrupt air travel demand and negatively impact AerCap's financial performance, particularly in regions with high exposure.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score AER and 4,400+ other equities.
AerCap Holdings N.V. exhibits a 37% valuation discount relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a constructive entry window based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
20.9%
Sector: 3.3%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
100.0%
Sector: 35.8%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
47.9%
Sector: 6.2%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
44.0%
Sector: 3.9%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
