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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2278
Positioning
Market Dominance
Services
Business Services
$2.6B
Devin B. McGranahan
The Western Union Company provides money movement and payment services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Consumer-to-Consumer and Business Solutions. The Business Solutions segment provides payment and foreign exchange solutions, primarily cross-border and cross-currency transactions.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = WU ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$YALA Yalla Group Ltd | 75 | 89 | 99 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GRVY GRAVITY Co., Ltd. | 75 | 82 | 96 | 71 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ISSC INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC | 73 | 81 | 88 | 94 | 25.0x | 14.1x | 17.1% | 10.3% | 35.5% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 105.2% | 0.0% | 41.0x | $244M | VS | |
$AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | 72 | 60 | 87 | 84 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC | 72 | 74 | 88 | 88 | 7.1x | 6.1x | 28.9% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC | 72 | 90 | 88 | 68 | 24.9x | 14.3x | 14.1% | 8.3% | 45.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $736M | VS | |
$TRTNpA Triton International Ltd | 71 | 70 | 89 | 70 | - | 1.7x | 0.0% | - | 97.4% | 58.0% | 37.4% | - | 8.8% | 264.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 71 | 83 | 52 | 77 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NTES NetEase, Inc. | 71 | 88 | 93 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC | 70 | 86 | 86 | 72 | 43.2x | 16.0x | 15.3% | 5.8% | 100.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 24.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$WU Western Union CO | 48 | 27 | 52 | 65 | 4.5x | 7.9x | 67.9% | 7.8% | 37.3% | 18.1% | 15.9% | -3.2% | 11.8% | 301.0x | $2.6B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 23.7x | 11.7x | 5.7% | 2.4% | 64.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
Western Union CO (WU) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 48.4/100. It ranks #2278 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for WU.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 27 | 12 | +15ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 65 | 73 | -8DRAG |
| VALUATION | 52 | 56 | -4NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 43 | 74 | -31DRAG |
| STABILITY | 84 | 91 | -7DRAG |
| SHORT INT | 30 | 17 | +13ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 32.3% vs WACC 5.4% (spread +26.8%)
GM 37% vs sector 65%, OM 18% vs sector 5%
Capital turnover 2.09x
Rev growth -3%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 20.5x, Net debt/EBITDA 2.6x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Western Union CO (WU) as a Reduce with a composite score of 48.4/100 at a current price of $9.40. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
Western Union CO holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 48.4/100 places it at rank #2278 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at -3% and momentum in the 65th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
Narrow
High
Standard
Fair Value
Returns on equity of 67.9% exceed cost of capital.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 301% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Western Union CO represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Western Union CO receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 48.4/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2278 out of 7,333 stocks. WU's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
WU's quality score of 27/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 67.9% (sector avg: 5.7%), gross margins of 37.3% (sector avg: 64.6%), net margins of 15.9% (sector avg: 2.8%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
WU's value score of 52/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 4.53x, an EV/EBITDA of 7.91x, a P/B ratio of 3.08x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
With an investment score of 43/100, WU exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -3.2% vs. a sector average of 8.6% and a return on assets of 7.8% (sector: 2.4%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
WU demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 65/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at -3.2% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.69 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
WU shows good financial stability with a score of 84/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.69 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 301.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
Western Union CO's short interest score of 30/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 301.00x). At $2.6B (mid-cap), WU carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
Western Union CO offers an attractive dividend yield of 11.8%, placing it among the higher-yielding stocks in its peer group. A yield this high can provide meaningful income, but investors should verify the payout is sustainable by examining the payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and any history of dividend cuts.
Western Union CO is a mid-cap company in the Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2278 of 7,333 overall (69th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 67.9% exceeding the 5.7% sector median and operating margins of 18.1% above the 4.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Services peers.
While WU currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Quality (27) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 33% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 1082% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 42% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Western Union's Q4 2025 performance was driven by a 26% surge in Consumer Services, despite a 9% decline in adjusted Consumer Money Transfer revenue. The company is strategically shifting to a 'retail-enabled consumer services company' by leveraging digital partnerships and launching new products like the Vigo Money Wallet and USD Payment Token. Future growth is expected from the Intermex acquisition, an expanded travel money business, and a global migration to their 'Beyond' technology platform by 2027.
Remitly Global, a digital-first fintech company in the remittance market, has seen its stock fall two-thirds since its 2021 IPO despite strong 25% revenue growth. Trading at just 5x its 2028 EBITDA forecast with new products like Remitly One subscription service, the company appears undervalued if it can meet its guidance of $2.6-3 billion revenue and $575-600 million EBITDA by 2028.
The S&P 500 was on track for double-digit earnings growth, with more than half of companies having reported Q4 results so far.
The S&P 500 was on track for double-digit earnings growth, with more than half of companies having reported Q4 results so far.
The S&P 500 was on track for double-digit earnings growth, with more than half of companies having reported Q4 results so far.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081