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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1529
Positioning
Market Dominance
Services
Business Services
$45.3B
Worthing F. Jackman
Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery services in the United States and Canada. The company owns and operates transfer stations that receive compact and/or load waste to be transported to landfills or treatment facilities through truck, rail, or barge. As of December 31, 2021, it owned 334 solid waste collection operations.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = WCN ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$YALA Yalla Group Ltd | 75 | 89 | 99 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GRVY GRAVITY Co., Ltd. | 75 | 82 | 96 | 71 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ISSC INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC | 73 | 81 | 88 | 94 | 25.0x | 14.1x | 17.1% | 10.3% | 35.5% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 105.2% | 0.0% | 41.0x | $244M | VS | |
$AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | 72 | 60 | 87 | 84 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC | 72 | 74 | 88 | 88 | 7.1x | 6.1x | 28.9% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC | 72 | 90 | 88 | 68 | 24.9x | 14.3x | 14.1% | 8.3% | 45.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $736M | VS | |
$TRTNpA Triton International Ltd | 71 | 70 | 89 | 70 | - | 1.7x | 0.0% | - | 97.4% | 58.0% | 37.4% | - | 8.8% | 264.0x | $2.5B | VS | |
$EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 71 | 83 | 52 | 77 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NTES NetEase, Inc. | 71 | 88 | 93 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC | 70 | 86 | 86 | 72 | 43.2x | 16.0x | 15.3% | 5.8% | 100.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 24.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$WCN Waste Connections, Inc. | 53 | 45 | 55 | 58 | 37.1x | 23.7x | 13.7% | 5.3% | 42.4% | 18.7% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 0.7% | 156.0x | $45.3B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 23.7x | 11.7x | 5.7% | 2.4% | 64.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 53.0/100. It ranks #1529 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for WCN.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 45 | 45 | 0NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 58 | 61 | -3NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 55 | 61 | -6DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 43 | 74 | -31DRAG |
| STABILITY | 92 | 98 | -6DRAG |
| SHORT INT | 59 | 74 | -15DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 15.7% vs WACC 8.2% (spread +7.5%)
GM 42% vs sector 65%, OM 19% vs sector 5%
Capital turnover 1.10x
Rev growth 9%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 20.3x, Net debt/EBITDA 5.0x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) as a Hold with a composite score of 53.0/100 at a current price of $165.70. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
Waste Connections, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 53.0/100 places it at rank #1529 in our full universe.
Narrow
Medium
Poor
Fair Value
Gross margins of 42% signal strong pricing power.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 37.1x leaves little room for execution misses.
Leverage of 156% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Waste Connections, Inc. represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns Waste Connections, Inc. a Hold rating, with a composite score of 53.0/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1529 of 7,333 stocks, WCN presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
With a quality score of 45/100, WCN shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 13.7% (sector avg: 5.7%), gross margins of 42.4% (sector avg: 64.6%), net margins of 11.9% (sector avg: 2.8%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
WCN's value score of 55/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 37.14x, an EV/EBITDA of 23.70x, a P/B ratio of 5.07x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
With an investment score of 43/100, WCN exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 9.3% vs. a sector average of 8.6% and a return on assets of 5.3% (sector: 2.4%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
WCN demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 58/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 9.3% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.30 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
Waste Connections, Inc. earns an excellent stability score of 92/100, reflecting low price volatility and a conservatively managed balance sheet. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.30 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 156.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). Stocks with this level of stability tend to act as portfolio anchors, providing downside protection during market corrections while still participating in broad market advances.
The short interest score of 59/100 for WCN suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 156.00x). With a $45.3B market cap (large-cap), Waste Connections, Inc. may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
WCN offers a modest dividend yield of 0.7%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
Waste Connections, Inc. is a large-cap company in the Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1529 of 7,333 overall (79th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 13.7% exceeding the 5.7% sector median and operating margins of 18.7% above the 4.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Services peers.
While WCN currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Stability (92) vs Investment (43) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
EV/EBITDA 102% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 138% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 34% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Seaport Research initiated coverage on several major waste management companies, highlighting their resilient business models, dependable recurring revenue, and significant barriers to entry. The analyst believes these companies have historically outperformed the S&P 500 during market corrections.
Key opportunities in the waste management market include regulatory-driven growth, circular economy investments, smart waste tech, digital tracking, advanced recycling, remediation tools, and PFAS solutions. Expanding mining and acquisitions enhance market potential, especially in Western Europe and Asia-Pacific. Waste Management and Remediation Services Market Waste Management and Remediation Services Market Dublin, Feb. 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Waste Management and Remediation Service
Waste Connections reported Q2 2025 financial results with revenue of $2.41 billion, beating estimates. The company maintained full-year guidance despite volume challenges, leveraging solid waste pricing and strategic acquisitions.
Waste Management is the largest trash hauler in North America with significant industry advantages, including limited landfill supply, high barriers to entry, and a consistent 22-year history of dividend increases.
CLH tops Q4 earnings and revenue estimates. Shares barely move as investors weigh segment trends and 2026 guidance.