VST

We rate Vistra Corp. (VST) as a Reduce with a composite score of 46.7/100 at a current price of $170.41. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (66th percentile) and value (47th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (26th percentile) and momentum (27th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (36/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Vistra Corp. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 46.7/100 places it at rank #2541 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $66.4B market capitalization, Vistra Corp. operates at meaningful scale within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 29%, though momentum at the 27th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 52% (-3.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 18% (+0.2pp vs sector) and net margins of 10.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 21%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $170.41, Vistra Corp. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 47/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 22.8x (a 35% premium to the sector median of 16.9x), EV/EBITDA of 18.4x (at a premium), P/B of 11.1x, P/S of 3.0x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to Vistra Corp.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.82), significant leverage (306% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (26th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.82); significant leverage (306% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (26th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 26th percentile and quality factor at the 66th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 52% provide a buffer against cost pressures; large-cap scale ($66.4B) provides resilience. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Vistra Corp.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (306% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Vistra Corp. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Vistra Corp. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 46.7/100 (rank #2541 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (36/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 40/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Vistra Corp. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.