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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#4492
Positioning
Market Dominance
Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services
Transportation
$1.0B
Barry L. Biffle
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. provides air transportation for passengers. The company operates an airline that serves approximately 120 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UGP ULTRAPAR HOLDINGS INC | 79 | 90 | 95 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TNK TEEKAY TANKERS LTD. | 78 | 94 | 97 | 82 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$DHT DHT Holdings, Inc. | 75 | 84 | 88 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$STNG Scorpio Tankers Inc. | 75 | 86 | 95 | 74 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NAT NORDIC AMERICAN TANKERS Ltd | 75 | 82 | 88 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMX AMERICA MOVIL SAB DE CV/ | 74 | 86 | 81 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PAC Pacific Airport Group | 73 | 94 | 80 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GSL Global Ship Lease, Inc. | 73 | 82 | 94 | 81 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TRMD TORM plc | 73 | 86 | 94 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$VIV TELEFONICA BRASIL S.A. | 73 | 82 | 90 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ULCC Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. | 31 | 23 | 9 | 32 | - | - | -33.4% | -2.3% | 21.0% | -4.9% | -4.5% | -8.9% | 0.0% | 126.0x | $1.0B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 16.9x | 6.1x | 11.9% | 3.2% | 52.6% | 14.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.3x | - | REF |
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) receives a "Avoid" rating with a composite score of 30.6/100. It ranks #4492 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 1-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Moderate investment profile
Below-average composite — caution warranted
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Relative valuation derived from Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for ULCC.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 23 | 9 | +14ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 32 | 25 | +7ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 9 | 4 | +5NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 49 | 82 | -33DRAG |
| STABILITY | 11 | 6 | +5NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 21 | 8 | +13ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC -218.0% vs WACC 6.6% (spread -224.6%)
GM 21% vs sector 53%, OM -5% vs sector 15%
Capital turnover 68.96x
Rev growth -9%, 5yr history
Interest coverage -29.8x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) as Avoid with a composite score of 30.6/100 at a current price of $4.63. The stock falls in the bottom quintile, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 30.6/100 places it at rank #4492 in our full universe.
No Moat
Very High
Poor
Fair Value
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 126% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Weak momentum suggests persistent institutional selling pressure.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. represents a avoid based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our quantitative model flags Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. with an Avoid rating, assigning a composite score of 30.6/100 and 1 out of 5 stars. Ranked #4492 of 7,333 stocks, ULCC falls in the bottom tier across key factors. Historically, stocks with this profile have faced elevated risk of underperformance and capital loss.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. registers a weak quality score of just 23/100, indicating significant profitability challenges. The company reports a return on equity of -33.4% (sector avg: 11.9%), gross margins of 21.0% (sector avg: 52.6%), net margins of -4.5% (sector avg: 7.7%). Low quality scores are often associated with businesses in turnaround mode, early-stage growth, or structurally challenged industries.
ULCC registers a value score of just 9/100, suggesting the stock trades at a significant premium to its fundamental metrics. Key valuation metrics include a P/B ratio of 2.42x. High-premium valuations like this require strong future execution to avoid multiple compression, and downside risk is elevated if growth disappoints.
With an investment score of 49/100, ULCC exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -8.9% vs. a sector average of 4.2% and a return on assets of -2.3% (sector: 3.2%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
ULCC is currently showing below-average momentum at 32/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -8.9% year-over-year, while a beta of 2.39 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. registers a low stability score of 11/100, indicating high volatility and potentially stressed financial conditions. Key stability metrics include a beta of 2.39 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 126.00x (sector avg: 1.3x). Stocks at this level carry elevated capital loss risk and may be unsuitable for conservative portfolios without careful risk management.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.'s short interest score of 21/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include high market sensitivity (beta: 2.39), elevated leverage (D/E: 126.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. At $1.0B (small-cap), ULCC carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. is a small-cap company in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #4492 of 7,333 overall (39th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -33.4% trailing the 11.9% sector median and operating margins of -4.9% below the 14.8% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services peers.
While ULCC currently exhibits a AVOID profile, superior opportunities exist within the TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, ELECTRIC, GAS, AND SANITARY SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Value (9) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
ROE 380% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 60% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Op. Margin 133% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Airlines are facing a sell-off due to concerns over the impact of tariffs and a potential recession, which could lead to a decline in travel demand. The industry is in a healthier position than in previous downturns, but the outlook remains uncertain.
Frontier Group Holdings has proposed a merger with Spirit Airlines, arguing it offers better financial recovery than Spirit's standalone restructuring plan. Frontier warns Spirit's bankruptcy plan would leave it highly leveraged and unprofitable, stressing the urgency of a deal.
Spirit Airlines is in a precarious financial position after its merger with JetBlue fell through. The company is cutting staff and selling aircraft to raise cash, indicating it is struggling to stave off bankruptcy. Investors should be cautious as Spirit's future remains uncertain.
Frontier Group Holdings and Spirit Airlines are reportedly in talks about a potential merger, as Spirit faces debt issues and the possibility of bankruptcy. A combination of the two airlines could help them better compete against industry giants, but any deal would likely involve Spirit's equity holders being wiped out.
Frontier Group Holdings is in merger discussions with Spirit Aviation Holdings, following Spirit's bankruptcy and failed previous merger attempt with JetBlue. The potential merger comes amid a leadership change at Frontier, with a new interim CEO appointed.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081