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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2200
Positioning
Market Dominance
Retail Trade
Retail
$30.0B
Harry A. Lawton
Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. As of December 25, 2021, it operated 2,003 stores in 49 states, as well as 177 Petsense stores in 23 states. The company sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = TSCO ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 73 | 85 | 89 | 65 | - | - | 29.1% | 5.1% | 46.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 153.0x | $1.5B | VS | |
$IMKTA INGLES MARKETS INC | 70 | 73 | 89 | 76 | 11.3x | 4.1x | 5.3% | 3.3% | 23.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | -5.4% | 1.0% | 32.0x | $1.3B | VS | |
$SGU STAR GROUP, L.P. | 69 | 82 | 79 | 63 | - | - | 26.2% | 7.8% | 31.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 6.1% | 63.0x | $399M | VS | |
$EZPW EZCORP INC | 68 | 77 | 82 | 89 | 7.2x | 4.2x | 12.0% | 6.4% | 58.6% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 51.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$HTHT H World Group Ltd | 68 | 91 | 44 | 84 | - | - | 24.9% | 4.9% | 100.0% | 21.8% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 45.0x | $101.1B | VS | |
$DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd | 68 | 86 | 82 | 57 | - | - | 42.4% | 4.0% | 100.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 201.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | 68 | 83 | 92 | 77 | 5.1x | 2.3x | 27.5% | 6.9% | 51.6% | 8.9% | 5.3% | -0.4% | 0.0% | 177.0x | $1.6B | VS | |
$SPH SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS LP | 67 | 80 | 90 | 53 | - | 13.0x | 18.6% | 4.7% | 60.7% | 14.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 202.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC /NEW/ | 67 | 63 | 81 | 67 | - | - | -29.5% | 13.1% | 58.6% | 40.7% | 27.4% | 6.8% | 1.3% | - | $21.5B | VS | |
$ROST ROSS STORES, INC. | 67 | 63 | 55 | 83 | 25.2x | 16.5x | 34.8% | 13.3% | 28.0% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 1.0% | 26.0x | $51.6B | VS | |
$TSCO TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ | 49 | 55 | 44 | 43 | 25.2x | 14.3x | 43.0% | 10.2% | 36.9% | 9.7% | 7.2% | -12.4% | 1.6% | 6.0x | $30.0B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 21.4x | 9.1x | 8.9% | 2.9% | 36.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.6x | - | REF |
TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ (TSCO) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 48.8/100. It ranks #2200 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Harry A. Lawton
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
49,000
55
30
80
Audit Verdict: Average governance indicators based on financial metrics.
No recent insider transactions available for TSCO
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Retail Trade sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for TSCO.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 55 | 69 | -14DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 43 | 41 | +2NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 44 | 43 | +1NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 30 | 31 | -1NEUTRAL |
| STABILITY | 80 | 86 | -6DRAG |
| SHORT INT | 42 | 39 | +3NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy 43.0% (sector 8.9%)
GM 37% vs sector 36%, OM 10% vs sector 4%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth -12%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 21.2x, Net debt/EBITDA -0.0x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 48.8/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2200 out of 7,333 stocks. TSCO's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
With a quality score of 55/100, TSCO shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 43.0% (sector avg: 8.9%), gross margins of 36.9% (sector avg: 36.2%), net margins of 7.2% (sector avg: 1.6%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
With a value score of 44/100, TSCO appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 25.21x, an EV/EBITDA of 14.25x, a P/B ratio of 10.84x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/'s investment score of 30/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -12.4% vs. a sector average of 3.8% and a return on assets of 10.2% (sector: 2.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
TSCO is currently showing below-average momentum at 43/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -12.4% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.54 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
TSCO shows good financial stability with a score of 80/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.54 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.00x (sector avg: 0.6x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
The short interest score of 42/100 for TSCO suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 6.00x). With a $30.0B market cap (large-cap), TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
TSCO offers a modest dividend yield of 1.6%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ is a large-cap company in the Retail Trade sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2200 of 7,333 overall (70th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 43.0% exceeding the 8.9% sector median and operating margins of 9.7% above the 3.9% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Retail Trade peers.
While TSCO currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the RETAIL TRADE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Retail Trade Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Investment (30) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 57% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 383% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin IN LINE WITH SECTOR BENCHMARKS
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 27, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ (TSCO) as a Reduce with a composite score of 48.8/100 at a current price of $53.40. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (80th percentile) and quality (55th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (30th percentile) and momentum (43th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (61/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.
Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 48.8/100 places it at rank #2200 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $30.0B market capitalization, TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ operates at meaningful scale within the Retail Trade sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.
Revenue contraction of -12% combined with momentum at the 43th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 37% (+0.7pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 10% (+5.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 7.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 19%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.
At a current price of $53.40, TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 44/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 25.2x (roughly in line with the sector median of 21.4x), EV/EBITDA of 14.3x (at a premium), P/B of 10.8x, P/S of 1.9x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.
Returns on equity of 43.0% exceed the cost of equity for most companies, indicating genuine shareholder value creation and a reinvestment engine that compounds wealth over time.
A conservative balance sheet (6% D/E) provides financial flexibility for acquisitions, buybacks, or weathering economic downturns without dilution.
Return on assets of 10.2% indicates efficient deployment of the full asset base, not just equity capital.
The Reduce rating (composite 48.8/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Revenue decline of -12% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
We assign a Low uncertainty rating to TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.54, conservative leverage (6% D/E), and a stability factor in the 80th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.54 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 80th percentile and quality factor at the 55th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (6% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (80th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/'s capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 43.0%, disciplined leverage (6% D/E), a 1.61% dividend yield. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ meets this high bar.
The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 1.61% dividend yield, and the combination of 10.2% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.
In summary, TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 48.8/100 (rank #2200 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (61/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 50/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, low uncertainty, and exemplary capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We assign TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ a Narrow Moat rating with a composite moat score of 61/100. The company possesses identifiable competitive advantages, though they are less entrenched than those of wide-moat peers. Our analysis indicates that TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ can sustain above-average returns on invested capital for at least 10 years, with the strongest contributor being financial resilience at 19.2/20.
The strongest moat sources are financial resilience (19.2/20) and economic value creation (17.5/20). Interest coverage 21.2x, Net debt/EBITDA -0.0x. ROE proxy 43.0% (sector 8.9%). These pillars form the core of TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0/20) and growth durability (10.4/20). Capital turnover N/A. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 37% providing a solid profitability foundation, declining revenues (-12%) that pressure the earnings outlook, returns on equity of 43.0% driving shareholder value creation. The margin cascade from 37% gross to 10% operating to 7.2% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality is adequate though not exceptional, with the quality factor at the 55th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 37%, operating margins of 10%, net margins of 7.2%. Return metrics include ROE of 43.0% and ROA of 10.2%. Relative to the Retail Trade sector, gross margins are 0.7 percentage points above the sector median of 36%, and ROE of 43.0% compares to a sector median of 8.9%.
The balance sheet reflects a conservatively managed balance sheet with D/E of 6%, a dividend yield of 1.61%, revenue growth of -12%. The sector median D/E is 1%, putting TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
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