TFII

We rate TFI International Inc. (TFII) as a Hold with a composite score of 60.0/100 at a current price of $116.46. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (73th percentile) and value (63th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (36th percentile) and investment (41th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (40/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

TFI International Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 60.0/100 places it at rank #696 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $11.4B market capitalization, TFI International Inc. operates at meaningful scale within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 12%, though momentum at the 49th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 19% (-36.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 7% (-11.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 5.0%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 27%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $116.46, TFI International Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 63/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 2.8x (discounted to peers), P/B of 3.7x, P/S of 0.3x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to TFI International Inc.. Key risk factors include significant leverage (106% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (36th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (106% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (36th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 36th percentile and quality factor at the 73th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate TFI International Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 63.2%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 106%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; TFI International Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 1.52% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, TFI International Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 60.0/100 (rank #696 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (40/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 52/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on TFI International Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.